GuShiio.com “P Xiaobai’s sky has fallen!”
Written by: Scof, ChainCatcher💀🔫
Editor: TB, ChainCatcher
Pump’s bullet hit the forehead between the eyebrows
Just now, Pump.fun co-founder alon issued a document saying that Pump.fun’s official X account was stolen and a fraudulent token “PUMP” was issued to remind users to pay attention to risks.
As the most active meme coin launch platform in Solana’s ecosystem, Pump.fun has once become a wealth creation myth among retail investors with its dual-stage mechanism of “internal incubation + external explosion”. Tokens first accumulate liquidity within the platform through the Bonding Curve mechanism. When the transaction volume exceeds the threshold of US$69,000, they automatically migrate to the head DEX Raydium to establish a capital pool, completing the closed loop from project launch to market hype. This set of rules for precision design will run wildly in 2024:
Since April 1 last year, tokens launched from Pump.fun have contributed US$346 billion in transaction volume to Raydium, accounting for half of the total traffic of the DEX. Among the US$197 million in fees collected by the platform, US$104 million came from Pump.fun. transactions.
However, when Trump and other celebrities entered with “flash” tokens (such as TRUMP and MELANIA), this game of beating drums and spreading flowers began to expose the naked logic of harvest. Chain data shows that more than 70% of meme coins show a trend of “peak when building a pool” in the external market stage, with an average survival time of less than 48 hours.
The more dangerous signal comes from the overall ebb in liquidity. On February 24, the market value of only one of the tokens graduated from Pump.fun barely exceeded one million US dollars, and the speculative craze on the chain was almost frozen. Raydium’s meme trading depth has shrunk by more than 90% from its peak, while the net outflow of stable coins in the Solana chain has exceeded US$1 billion in the past 30 days, setting the largest financial loss after the FTX crash.
This collapse was no accident. When project parties, trading platforms and celebrities form an “iron triangle of harvesting”, and when the mathematical model of the Bonding Curve is reduced to a pumping tool, the confidence of individual investors has long been exhausted in the drama of “smashing the market at the opening” again and again. The failure of Pump.fun is not only a microcosm of Solana’s ecological mobility crisis, but also a cruel torture of meme’s narrative in the entire encryption world. When the bubble recedes and the carnival is over, who will clean up this ruins of capital ruins?
SOL fell by more than 50% from its high point, and the ecology fell into a downturn
As one of the most eye-catching public chain tokens in 2024, Solana is riding on the east wind of Pump and meme, rising nearly 200% throughout the year.
But since Trump released the token in Solana on January 18, this wave seems to have finally reached the shore: the price of SOL first hit a record high of $295 on January 19, and then turned sharply downward, falling more than 50%.
With only three days left before the largest token unlock in Solana’s history (worth US$2 billion), 11.2 million SOL unlocks will be in circulation, most of which will be purchased from the FTX auction house at a cost of US$64, which may also form a huge selling pressure.
In addition to the poor performance of token prices, according to Defillama data, Solana Ecosystem’s TVL has dropped from a high of US$12.19 billion to US$7.22 billion today, and daily transaction fee revenue has also continued to decrease.
In addition, Solana Ecology’s 24-hour net inflow data showed that US$260 million flowed out on January 18 and 19 alone. Since then, the inflow of funds has also continued to decrease, far less than during the previous Pump period.
Not only that, but a series of other indicators are also not optimistic. The performance of Solana’s mainstream agreement tokens in the past seven days has also shown signs of decline:
Figure Solana Ecological Market Performance on Rootdata
Overall, the ecology presents a scene of “falling trees and monkeys scattered”.
This also leads to the question: Is Solana’s story over?
Solana labs co-created Toly, and is also afraid of collapse!
Faced with the risk of a token price collapse, Solana Ecology is experiencing the greatest fear, uncertainty and FUD since the FTX thunder. Some analysts have estimated that during the entire memecoin hype cycle, scammers have amassed more than US$10 billion.
Faced with unavoidable practical problems, many community members also responded.
As the co-founder of Solana labs, Toly has always advocated healthy technological development and innovation, and he has repeatedly called on builders to return to innovation and build high-quality projects. Although he did not face the criticism head-on, he repeatedly revealed his dissatisfaction with Pump in his conversations with other community members in X. Faced with doubts from long-term supporters, he even said,”The assholes thawww.gushiio.comss with markets to max extract can go f themselves.” response. And the group this refers to is self-evident.
Encrypted KOL@cobie has also pointed out the problems with the PVP model many times. He said,”The current development of the market is that market participants are actively rushing into these scams like moths. Most people also know that these are scams, but the goal is to sell them to the receiver at three times the price.” They just want to get rich in 2 weeks, not 2-4 years. Players hope to win the big prize in the next action.”
Of course, the community is also trying to save itself. Solana launched proposal SIMD-0228 on February 26, setting a target pledge rate of 50%. If the pledge rate exceeds 50%, the circulation volume will decrease and the yield will decrease; if it is less than 50%, the circulation volume will increase and the yield will increase. The minimum inflation rate is 0%, and the maximum inflation rate is determined based on the current issuance curve. The proposal aims to shift SOL issuance to a market-driven model.
In addition, data from Polymarket, a prediction platform that Solana Spot ETF has become another lifeline, shows that the market believes that the probability of approval before 2025 is as high as 85.4%, and the probability of approval before June has also increased to 34%. If it comes true, based on the siphon effect of Bitcoin ETF totaling 100 billion US dollars and Ethereum ETF totaling 100 billion US dollars, Solana may receive billions of dollars in fresh water injection.
Solana’s dilemma is by no means an isolated example, but a microcosm of “speculation backfired on innovation” throughout the industry.
As KOL@0xNing0x summarized: “Now we have entered the closing moment of this cycle. The P players are MVPs, Solana, Pump.fun, and Jupiter are the best assistants, TRUMP is a lying dog, AI16Z is a lying dog, and JLP holder is a lying dog. The losing SVP is Base and Virtual, while Ethereum, Arbitrum, Optimism, ZkSync, and Starknet are mixed singles, middle singles, junglers and supports.”
At present, Solana may have only two ways out: either relying on external capital such as ETFs to forcibly renew its life, but may deepen its dependence on financial casinos; or, like Tory advocated,”scraping the bones and curing the poison” and endure the short-term pain to rebuild the developer’s beliefs.
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