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Dragon Lion Finance, interpreting politics and economics, hello everyone, I am Xiuqiu, in the past 20 years, we have built 600 million houses, 5.43 million kilometers of roads, 160,000 kilometers of railways, 11,500 kilometers of subways, and countless municipal facilities, highways, ports, pipeline facilities, etc. However, these infrastructure projects have a “shelf life”, such as the use cycle of high-speed rail and railway-related equipment, which is generally about 10 years. 2013-2017 is the peak period for EMU bidding, which means that in the years from 2023 to 2027, many EMU equipment will be close to the end of their design service life and will usher in a stage of large-scale maintenance and update. This is like the home appliances in our home. After using them for a long time, they always need to be repaired or replaced.
Once, we were the “infrastructure maniac” that amazed the world. We built “rapidly” all the way, and the scene was like a cheat. However, now we have to step on the “emergency brake” and enter the era of major repairs. This is like a person who works hard when he is young, and when he gets older, all the parts of his body start to “get angry” and need to be repaired.
What impact does the era of major repairs have on our lives?
First of all, the maintenance and renewal of infrastructure requires a lot of funds. The government may raise funds by raising water, electricity and gas prices, extending the toll period of highways, etc., which will directly lead to an increase in the cost of living for ordinary people. For example, the price of high-speed rail, water, electricity and gas prices have increased. Secondly, the maintenance costs of personal property such as houses and vehicles may also increase. As buildings and facilities age, the frequency and difficulty of maintenance will increase, and the corresponding maintenance costs will also increase. For example, the exterior wall maintenance of old communities, burst water pipes, etc., the owner’s maintenance fund is emptied in minutes.
Now, high-rise residential buildings over 20 years old are turning into “time bombs”. The exterior walls of super-high-rise residential buildings in Shenzhen are falling off and hitting cars. The failure rate of elevators in a community has increased by 300% in three years. The residents on the top floor joked that they were “playing “Final Destination” every day”. Although the renovation of old residential areas has upgraded the environment, noise, water and power outages during construction have become the new normal. Residents joked: “Before the renovation, it was a slum, during the renovation, it was a construction site, and after the renovation, it was a fine-decorated slum.” What’s even more magical is that the house can’t hold up before the 70-year property right expires. According to data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, my country’s housing built before 2000 exceeded 3 billion square meters. These “middle-aged dangerous houses” have put owners in a dilemma of “can’t afford to repair, can’t sell, and can’t live in peace”.
Can these problems be postponed?
If they are postponed, the risk of accidents will increase, and the aging of infrastructure will bring more safety hazards, such as road collapse, pipeline leakage, water leakage, and the falling of the exterior walls of houses, which will greatly increase the occurrence of safety accidents and force majeure. For example, the collapse of Meizhou Expressway was caused by the lack of maintenance of the expressway and the severe natural weather. In addition, daily life will also be affected. These safety hazards will not only threaten people’s lives and property, but also affect people’s daily lives. For example, the aging of urban drainage systems may cause waterlogging on roads during heavy rains, affecting traffic and travel.
However, we should look at both sides of everything. Although the cost of living will rise in the era of major repairs, new business opportunities and employment opportunities will be born in the new era.
Let’s talk about business opportunities first. In fact, the maintenance industry has shown its advantages. In the field of engineering machinery, domestic excavator sales will increase by 11.7% year-on-year in 2024, and the equipment update cycle will promote the rebound in demand for medium and large excavators. Urban pipeline maintenance also has great potential. For example, technical service providers such as gas pipeline detection robots and water supply system intelligent monitoring equipment will benefit from the market-oriented reform of municipal operation and maintenance. This is equivalent to providing a large number of employment opportunities for those who can repair “big guys” and “underground pipelines”. Don’t underestimate these maintenance workers in the future. They are the “hot cakes” in the era of major repairs.
The parts and materials industry will usher in “new opportunities”. Driven by the equipment renewal policy, the average annual renewal demand of the machine tool industry will reach 1 million units, and the market space for high-end parts for metal processing will open up. At the same time, the renovation of old residential areas has spawned the demand for waterproof materials and energy-saving building materials. It is expected that the relevant market size will exceed one trillion in 2025. This means that companies that produce these parts and materials will usher in new development opportunities, and will also drive the increase of related positions, such as material research and development engineers and production workers.
AI can also provide empowerment in the field of maintenance. For example, new quality productivity tools such as humanoid robots, AI detection systems, and drone inspections will accelerate the penetration of maintenance scenarios. This is really technology changing life. In the future, maintenance work may be automated and intelligent. However, this also puts higher requirements on relevant technical personnel, who need to master advanced technology and knowledge to gain a foothold in this “new battlefield”.
Let’s talk about personal employment opportunities. The following are some employment directions I have collected for your reference.
1. Drone inspector: Control drones to do “CT scans” on bridges and tunnels, with an annual salary of 200,000 yuan. Requirements include being able to repair drones and being able to read structural drawings.
2. Intelligent monitoring algorithm engineer: Install “heart rate monitors” on sewers and use AI to predict landslides. Technology companies are scrambling for talent in this area.
3. Designers for renovation of old residential communities: Convert tube buildings into popular apartments, and convert old and dilapidated private houses into villas. The fees are charged at a “sentiment premium”. There are designers on the Internet who specialize in the renovation of old and dilapidated private houses and earn millions of yuan a year.
4. Housing maintenance: A large number of commercial houses are beginning to age and need maintenance and repair. The demand for pipeline repairers, exterior wall insulation construction workers, exterior wall repairers and other positions will surge.
5. Elevator repairer: More and more cities are installing elevators in staircase buildings in old residential communities. The demand for elevator maintenance and repair in the future will definitely increase.
6. Community “maintenance housekeeper”: Provide one-stop door-to-door services such as home appliances, water and electricity, and can flexibly accept orders based on various large platforms. It may be a small entrepreneurial direction.
7. Underground pipe network maintenance: responsible for unblocking urban sewers and replacing smart gas pipes, which requires mastering the operation skills of IoT devices.
There are other common new energy vehicle maintenance, aviation maintenance technicians, smart home maintenance, mobile phone maintenance, etc.
The era of large-scale maintenance is not a step backward, but “adult awakening” – just like no longer staying up late to dance after the age of 30, but learning to soak wolfberries in red wine. Remember, problems that can be solved by maintenance are all small problems; when you can’t afford to repair… maybe, perhaps, probably… you may have achieved wealth freedom by teaching people to repair. So, instead of complaining about the rising cost of living, it is better to seize the new opportunities of this era. After all, who says that repairing things can’t be a fashion?
Domestic video address: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1fFPYedEnD
Overseas video address: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3FaEKKoc8I
