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BTC fell below the 90,000 mark. How can various big shots predict the market outlook?

Arthur Hayes remains bearish at $70000;Chris Burniske believes this is just a correction.

Written by Azuma, Odaily Planet

BTC fell below the 90,000 mark. How can various big shots predict the market outlook?插图

This morning, we just released “Market decline accelerates, is BTC really going to 70000?” In the market article, I thought that I was psychologically prepared for the market to continue to fall, but I did not expect a new round of accelerated decline to come so quickly.

Around 15: 30, BTC fell below the US$90000 mark again in nearly a month and a half. OKX quotes show:

  • BTC once fell to a low of 88189 USDT, and was temporarily reported at 89204 USDT as of 15: 50, a 24-hour decline of 6.80 ;

  • ETH once fell to 2315 USDT, temporarily trading at 2,378.01 USDT, a 24-hour decline of 12.5% ;

  • SOL once fell to 132.8 USDT, temporarily trading at 136.5 USDT, a 24-hour decline of 15.12% ;

  • Needless to say, other altcoins and on-chain meme have generally fallen by more than 10% or even 20%.

In terms of derivatives data, Coinglass data shows that US$1.337 billion have been sold across the network in the past 24 hours, most of which were multiple orders, with an amount of US$1.25 billion. In terms of currencies, BTC closed positions of US$517 million and ETH closed positions of US$294 million.

BTC fell below the 90,000 mark. How can various big shots predict the market outlook?插图1

Targeted sniper attacks on major contract households?

Regarding the incentive for this sharp drop, some community members interpreted it as a strong attack on a large contract owner who opened multiple BTC in CEX (nicknamed “Set 10 Big Goals First”).

Community screenshots show that the average opening price of this user is 100,320.8 USDT, the position of the user is as high as 5,184.527 BTC, and the estimated closing price is 82,592.68 US dollars.

BTC fell below the 90,000 mark. How can various big shots predict the market outlook?插图2

However, as the market’s decline accelerates, the big player seems to have closed its position early and left the market. On-line analyst Ai Aunt Monitoring said that users of this large household who opened long BTC contracts have already cut off their meat and stopped losses. In the past five minutes, this large household has cut off 1,783.48 BTC pieces at an average price of US$89138, with a total value of US$159 million.

At the same time, Jasonleo, an X user suspected of being the big player himself, also responded to the situation of the position. Jasonleo admitted that he “admitted that he left the market and took profits back,” but also clarified that he did not “lose money, and the principal is still there” because the real market access was late, resulting in the online data platform not counting previous profits.

The big player finally said: “It’s a pity that it went from a profit of 700 million yuan to a profit of 0 million yuan.”

BTC fell below the 90,000 mark. How can various big shots predict the market outlook?插图3

What do various big shots/institutions think?

In this morning’s article, we briefly covered the views of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Placeholder partner Chris Burniske on the outlook. Arthur Hayes is still bearish at $70000;Chris Burniske firmly believes that this is just a correction from the bull market.

In order to make it easier for everyone to judge the market outlook more clearly, we have once again sorted out the views of more big shots/institutions, as follows.

OKX: Multiple factors triggered this round of decline. The key to the future outlook lies in the incremental capital inflow

Zhao Wei, a senior researcher at the OKX Research Institute, analyzed this round of decline and said that multiple factors such as global trade tensions, the collapse of U.S. stocks, leverage liquidation, the withdrawal of institutional funds, frequent security incidents and the ebb of SOL ecological speculation jointly promoted this round of market decline.

At the macro level, liquidity tightening continues to put pressure on risky assets. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates, and the yen broke through the 149 mark against the US dollar, directly impacting the world’s largest carry trade carrier. At the same time, the Nasdaq index fell by more than 4% for three consecutive days, the valuation of technology stocks fell, and market risk appetite fell, further affecting assets such as Bitcoin. In addition, a stronger US dollar has pushed up risk-free yields, attracting funds back to low-risk assets and accelerating capital outflows from high-risk assets.

In the crypto market, internal vulnerabilities were amplified in this decline. First, the reversal of institutional capital flows has become a key pressure point. Recently, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have continued to have net outflows, and the cost lines of some institutions ‘positions have been penetrated, triggering programmatic selling. Secondly, in the derivatives market, the positions of Ethereum futures by large institutions have dropped significantly, indicating a shift in their expectations for the market. In addition, the SOL Ecosystem is facing liquidity difficulties, the trading volume of Memecoin on the chain has declined, the withdrawal of speculative funds has led to market makers reducing the depth of quotations, the clearing volume on the chain has surged, and agreement revenue has declined. The valuation model of the SOL Ecosystem may face restructuring. The wave of leveraged liquidations further exacerbated market turmoil, with the prices of some crypto assets breaking, triggering DeFi cascading liquidations. At the same time, many recent security incidents have exacerbated the crisis of trust in the market. Users ‘concerns about asset security have increased, and confidence in the crypto market has been further frustrated.

The future market trend will be affected by the macro environment and internal factors, but the core still depends on the continued inflow of incremental funds. However, the current global economic situation is uncertain, tariff pressure has intensified and risk appetite has declined, and the recovery of the crypto market still needs to wait for the return of institutional funds and new phenomenon-level applications to promote narrative reconstruction and achieve healthy market adjustment. At present, the crypto market is suffering from triple pressure resonance of macro liquidity contraction, internal ecological adjustment and exposure of market structural fragility. Users should focus on the industry’s technological innovation cycle, the financial performance of U.S. technology stocks and the pace of global central bank policy adjustments. Only when the inflow of stablecoins on the chain returns to positive growth, futures positions bottom out and rebound, and the weekly levels of major currencies stabilize can the market repair cycle be confirmed.

Matrixport: There is a high possibility of further decline, limited buying demand

Matrixport said in response to market volatility today: “Bitcoin has fallen below the rising expansion wedge, which is not what we would like, but this pattern usually signals downside risks unless prices quickly rebound and return to the wedge.” Bitcoin is likely to fall further, especially since this break occurred during a period of sluggish trading and there is limited demand for bargain hunting.”

“Although we expect there will be room for price growth in the second half of this year, this technical break has made market sentiment more cautious. In addition, not only did Bitcoin break, but Ethereum also fell below the key support range of $2,600 to $2,800.”

Raoul Pal: It’s just a callback, you need to learn to block out noise

Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal said in response to the decline: “Be patient. The current market structure is very similar to 2017. BTC experienced five corrections greater than 28%, which lasted for 2 – 3 months before reaching a new high. At the same time, altcoins generally fell more than 65%. The market is full of noise, do something more meaningful than staring.”

Ansem: Pay attention to the recovery of 96500 and be wary of subsequent stock market declines

Well-known trader Ansem Yu X said that the next key thing is whether BTC can regain its position around 96500, but the more important issue is that if the cryptocurrency is pre-reflecting the risk aversion trend of the entire market and the stock index also collapses in the next few weeks, then this is more likely to be the beginning of a downtrend rather than an episode in an uptrend.

BTC fell below the 90,000 mark. How can various big shots predict the market outlook?插图4

CoinDesk analysts: Nasdaq fell + Japan’s interest rate hike triggered a plunge

Omkar Godbole, editor-in-chief of CoinDesk’s market analysis team, released a market analysis saying that the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike expectations and the decline in Nasdaq futures have led to this round of collapse in the crypto market. Market data showed Nasdaq futures fell 0.3%, indicating that a three-day decline would continue, with the technology index falling more than 4% since February 18.

The safe-haven currency, the yen, traded at 149.38 against the dollar, is expected to challenge the nearly three-month high of 148.84 set on Monday. The yen has gained nearly 6% in six weeks on bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates. The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes and the strengthening yen recall last July, when the yen soared as the central bank raised interest rates, ultimately triggering widespread risk aversion and causing Bitcoin to plummet from about $65,000 to $50,000 in a few days.

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