GuShiio.com At the end of February, Goldman Sachs poured cold water on the overheated field of humanoid robots with a research report.
According to a team of Goldman Sachs analyst Jacqueline Du conducted on-site research on Yushu Technology, the turning point of humanoid robot technology is still unclear, and there is still a long way to go before it can actually take up its job. Goldman Sachs pointed out in the research report that the Yushu Technology robot H1 only has 19 degrees of freedom, so it is still unable to handle complex and delicate tasks. 2-3 It is difficult to achieve the same efficiency as human workers in 2010, and practical applications may appear in 5-10 years. Currently, hundreds of units are shipped to meet the needs of laboratories and other needs.
As soon as the research report came out, humanoid robot concept stocks set off a downward trend. On February 28, more than 20 concept stocks such as Evert-U and Hanwei Technology fell by no less than 10%.
For a time, discussions about Goldman Sachs bursting the humanoid robot bubble became rampant, and voices holding the opposite attitude followed. Looking beyond the emotional circle, the Goldman Sachs Research Report revealed that it is not simply optimistic or bearish on the humanoid robot industry. It just finds that current technology is not enough to support humanoid robot manufacturers to outline the blueprint of thousands of households.
The Institute for Personalized Studies believes that it may be more appropriate to say that the development of technology has never been achieved overnight. When we are thinking about the future, we also need to think coldly and objectively look at the current challenges. Only by admitting challenges and facing them can we overcome them. Instead of discussing whether each party’s ideas are right or wrong, why not take a look at what is wrong with the humanoid robot?
In addition to Goldman Sachs, among the four major investment banks, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have expressed their views on the field of humanoid robots. The thinking of the three investment banks is slightly different, but it is undeniable that humanoid robots are the general trend and are irreversible under technological breakthroughs. One of the development directions.
However, there is still room for debate on when the end will be reached; on what link to bet on now to see short-term returns. And this passionate discussion moment is precisely the only way to accelerate the arrival of the future.
Upstream becomes a hot spot”
What is the charm of core components?
Although Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley have different views on the future of humanoid robots, there is one industry link whose development potential is unanimously recognized by the three major investment banks-upstream core component manufacturers.
According to the Institute for Personalized Studies, the core reasons why Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are optimistic about the upstream are:
First, the upstream technology moat is relatively deep, such as harmonic reducers, torque motors and other components, relying on precision machining, materials science and other technologies, with long research and development cycles and high patent barriers. For reference, Japan’s Hammernaco has monopolized the harmonic reducer market for decades, accounting for 80% of the market share. Therefore, the upstream layout can be regarded as a breakthrough in layout technology. Currently, manufacturers in the early stages of domestic layout are expected to form intergenerational technological advantages in the future.
Second, upstream certification barriers are strong, and the supply chains of head robot companies, including Tesla Optimus, Boston Dynamics, and Yushu Technology, require strict product verification, and first-mover companies are prone to customer stickiness. As leading companies ride the wind and waves, upstream orders also rise, which is also sexy and attractive to other companies. From the perspective of long-term development, with the deep binding relationship with the leading enterprises, the upstream can continue to upgrade products along with its technical routes in the future, forming a symbiotic relationship. In this regard, we can refer to the lightweight requirements of Optimu joint modules to drive the iteration of upstream technology.
Fourth, the premium ability is strong and the threshold based on upstream core components is high, which gives manufacturers high bargaining power, and the gross profit margin generally reaches 40%-60%. For example, the gross profit margin of Green Harmonic is in the range of 40%-50%. In addition, when the upstream grasps the right to speak in technology, it reflects the investment logic that has broad substitution space and is in line with the trend of domestic substitution. Domestic manufacturers that take the lead in technological breakthroughs can seize the import substitution market.
All in all, with high growth, strong barriers and leverage effects in the industrial chain, upstream suppliers have become hot spots for capital markets to compete for bets.
Specifically, since February, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have successively released two reports,”Humanoid Robot 100: Combing the Global Value Chain” and “Humanoid Robot Series III: Core Supply Chain”, both of which show that China occupies a dominant position in the field of humanoid robot hardware manufacturing.
Photo source: Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley’s report shows that among the top 100 companies in the global humanoid robot industry chain, China accounts for 35, of which 68.5% are concentrated in body modules. Companies such as Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Green Harmonic have become key suppliers.
Goldman Sachs believes that the most eye-catching investment opportunities in the current humanoid robot industry chain are concentrated in the field of supply chain components. As the industry gradually moves from the research and development stage to the mass production stage, major robot manufacturers are increasingly demanding high-quality components, bringing unprecedented development opportunities to supply chain companies. In addition, Goldman Sachs also pointed out that China has significant cost control capabilities in areas such as harmonic reducers and actuator components.
Citi said that the long-term investment value of China parts suppliers may be better than that of the complete machine brand; based on its core business prospects and valuation, it is optimistic about RV reducer and harmonic reducer manufacturers.
Is it really impossible to work for a few years?
The debate about humanoid robots focuses more on their practicality. That is, is humanoid robots a demand created by technology or a real demand? This topic is also one of the answers to when humanoid robots will reach their turning point.
After all, only when demand is undertaken can we push from the demand side and achieve technological breakthroughs to form a double spiral situation, accelerating the pace of commercial development of humanoid robots.
First of all, from the demand side, we are currently facing the current situation of contradiction between supply and demand in the labor market. As the level of cognition gradually improves, cumbersome and repetitive factory work is no longer the preferred scenario for the labor force. As a result, some factories have problems such as high mobility of personnel and few labor options. Humanoid robots can be used as one of the solutions to help improve factory production conditions.
Taking the factory scenario as an example, this scenario has the characteristics of structure and task standardization. Some scenarios have completed industrial automation reform, but space constraints, fine operation capabilities limitations and general capabilities constraints still require manual participation in some refined parts and components. The humanoid robot has the characteristics of strong generalization ability, high flexibility, and high refined operation ability, which can solve the last mile of comprehensive automation in the factory.
Secondly, many current rescue scenarios still require human workers to face the risk of sacrifice. Humanoid robots and robotic dogs can replace humans or take the lead in avoiding human risks, rushing to the front line with their bodies of steel to provide support for subsequent rescue work.
It can be seen that demand is real, and it is an indisputable fact that humanoid robots are an irreversible trend. Therefore, humanoid robots are not concepts but real productivity. In this context, the turning point for employment will not be too far away.
In addition, Yushu Technology is not the only humanoid robot. Yushu Technology is just one of the representative players in this field. Its capabilities do not represent the capabilities and technical focus of all humanoid robot manufacturers. Whether it is Yushu Technology’s H1 or G1, both products are characterized by strong operation control capabilities, which is also one of Yushu Technology’s genes.
The flexibility of Yushu Technology’s limbs can be seen in Yushu Technology’s official videos and in the open-box evaluations released by buyers. Although this ability does not match the refined operation capabilities required by the factory, it does not mean that Yushu Technology cannot do it, or that humanoid robot manufacturers cannot do it.
Cases of humanoid robots entering factories to work are common. Magic Atom, Tiangong, Lingbao CASBOT, and Leju robots have all demonstrated corresponding working capabilities. Each family has different skill points, and the corresponding scenes are also different. With a hundred flowers blooming, humanoid robots appear in factory inspections, power distribution, exhibitions, factory assembly and other scenes.
Not long ago, Ubisoft, the first group of humanoid robots, released a video of a group of humanoid robots entering the factory to work. Dozens of humanoid robots carried out collaborative training in the Gekrypton 5G smart factory, distributed in the assembly workshop, SPS instrument area, and quality inspection. Multiple complex scenarios such as area and door assembly area have successfully achieved multi-task collaborative operations such as collaborative sorting, collaborative handling and precision assembly.
Overseas Tesla and Figure have also demonstrated the ability of humanoid robots to work. Figure’s robot has learned to take a second job and began to organize express delivery in the logistics center.
Although it is currently only working within the scope, with the accumulation of data in real scenes and the continuous advancement of mass production plans, the day when humanoid robots will truly assist human production will soon be known.
Humanoid robots need sexy stories, but also cold thinking
In fact, the Goldman Sachs research report has indeed brought a new perspective of thinking to humanoid robots, or injected cold thinking into the outside world under the current situation of overheating.
Since the magnifying glass effect of CCTV Spring Festival Gala, humanoid robots have been pushed into the spotlight. This young and sexy field has ushered in a period of popularity that has never been seen since its inception. During this period, it is inevitable that there will be erroneous interpretations or distorted remarks, which will deviate greatly from the past step-by-step development process.
The popularity can certainly attract attention, but with the help of many parties, it can promote humanoid robots to usher in a stage of accelerated development. But under overheating, cold thinking is really needed.
If we just blindly draw up a blueprint and firmly believe that the iPhone moment for humanoid robots has arrived, we will miss the period when functional machines are laying the foundation, which is not conducive to the healthy and long-term development of the humanoid robot industry.
Only by facing them can we solve them.
The challenge faced by humanoid robots today is that the commercialization scenarios are relatively homogeneous, and factories carry too many expectations. During the homogenization route, they may fall into non-healthy competition. Looking for more differentiated landing scenarios will not only strengthen their own commercialization. Barriers can also drive humanoid robots to explore application boundaries; when entering the factory to work, faced with a factory environment with low fault tolerance rate, humanoid robots must not only ensure their own success rate, but also standardize the responsibilities of the production process in advance. For example, external harm to humanoid robots under human-machine cooperation, and production stagnation of humanoid robots due to technical problems require various industries to jointly formulate industry norms.
Overall, amid the intertwining of technology iteration and capital heat waves, the humanoid robot industry is undergoing a critical transition from proof of concept to commercial implementation. The views of Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley are essentially different anchors on the industry maturity curve, but their consensus is also clearly visible: upstream core components serve as the hub for technical barriers and industrial chain coordination.
From the perspective of the Personalized Research Society, the upstream is becoming the fulcrum for leveraging the overall situation. Breakthroughs in hard-core components such as precision reducers and high-precision sensors are not only related to the narrative of domestic substitution, but will also define the underlying logic of humanoid robots moving from laboratories to workshops, and from single-point demonstrations to large-scale reproduction.
However, under the carnival, we still need to think coldly. Excessive focus on short-term capital narratives may dilute patience for basic R & D, and competition in homogeneous scenarios may overdraw technical dividends. Only by returning to the essence of the industry, laying a solid foundation in dimensions such as hardware performance, algorithm generalization, and safety ethics, and at the same time building an open ecology and standards system can we precipitate real value in the hustle and bustle.
The future of humanoid robots requires not only the imagination of looking up at the stars, but also the awe of down-to-earth technology. This dance between capital and technology will eventually write a new chapter in intelligent manufacturing in the balance of rationality and innovation.
