Original title: “The six-year-old long-standing project is finally going online. Is it a social fission artifact or a capital market?”
Original author: Alvis, MarsBit

 

Introduction: When “mobile mining” shines into reality 

 

“At 16:00 on February 20, 2025, this time will be written into the annals of encryption-either the crowning moment of Pi Network’s ascent to the top of the ‘civilian blockchain’ or the starting point of the bursting of the largest air coin bubble in history.”  

 

 

Six years ago, Stanford Dr. Nicolas Kokkalis started a social experiment with a mobile App: users can “mine” by clicking a button once a day, without the need for professional mining machines, no power consumption, and zero cost. Now, this experiment is coming to an end-Pi Network announced that the Open Network will be officially launched at 16:00 on February 20, 2025, Beijing time, when Pi Coin will realize interconnection with external systems for the first time.

 

Behind the data are two days of ice and fire: 

 

– Enthusiastic supporters: More than 18 million users around the world have passed KYC verification, and merchants in China Taiwan even use Pi coins to buy milk tea and pay rent;

 

– Questioner: The main network has been suspended for 6 years, and tokens cannot be traded. The “IOU futures” on the exchange have been accused of hyping up the atmosphere.

 

In this whirlpool of controversy, is Pi Network a technological revolution or a carefully designed capital game? This article will use the latest data and ecological progress to dismantle its value logic and potential risks.

 

1. Positive outlook: Three major breakthroughs in civilian blockchain

 

1. User base: The “traffic bomb” that suppresses traditional public chains

 

Pi Network created the largest user network in the history of encryption:

 

– 50 million registered users, far exceeding Ethereum (less than 5 million active users in 120 million addresses);

 

– 18 million KYC certified users, of which more than 8 million have migrated to the closed main network, and it is expected to exceed the migration target of 10 million by February 20;

 

– Asian dominance: South Korea’s 1.34 million users exceed the number of local Binan users, and Vietnam and the Philippines rank among the top three in the world in terms of community activity.

 

This user size gives it natural ecological incubation capabilities-even if only 1% of users participate in development, 50,000 DApps can be generated (currently only 80 main-network apps).

 

2. Democratization of technology: The fusion of mobile mining and stellar consensus

 

Pi Network is trying to lower the blockchain threshold with two major innovations:

 

– Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP): Abandoning Bitcoin’s energy-intensive PoW and achieving energy-saving consensus through the Federal Byzantine Agreement (FBA), mobile phones can participate in verification;

 

– Layered role system: From “Pioneer”(daily mining check-in) to “Node”(running full nodes), users receive tokens based on contributions, forming a bottom-up governance structure.

 

This design allows blockchain to reach non-technical people for the first time-housewives, students, and retired people can participate, breaking the industry barrier of “geek exclusive”.

 

3. Real-life applications: From Taiwan milk tea shops to cross-border payments

 

Although the main network is not open, Pi Network has explored unique offline scenarios:

 

– Taiwan business district experiment: More than 200 merchants accept Pi coins for payment, ranging from catering to real estate leasing, with 1 Pi≈25-30 NT dollars (approximately US$0.8 -1);

 

– Cross-border remittance test: Filipino workers transfer money to their homes and villages through Pi wallets, and the handling fee is only 1/10 of a traditional bank;

 

– Developer incentives: 80 main-network applications cover education, medical care, and logistics. For example,”Pi Health” uses anonymous medical data to train AI diagnostic models.

 

If the open network works smoothly, these scenarios may be upgraded from marginal experiments to global inclusive financial infrastructure.

 

2. Negative controversy: trust deficit and valuation bubble

 

1. Six-year history of skipping votes: The crisis of trust when the wolf comes

 

Pi Network’s main network schedule can be called a “procrastination textbook.”

 

Launched in 2019, Pi Network initially supported smartphone-based cryptocurrency mining and has gone through multiple phases, including Testnet, node planning and closed mainnet. Currently, the project is in the transition stage to an open network, and the main network migration is expected to occur in early 2025.

 

·March 14, 2019: Official release- Pi Network was officially launched on “Pi Day”(March 14), named after the mathematical constant π (3.14). The initial version of the mobile app allows users (known as “Pioneers”) to mine Pi cryptocurrency directly from their smartphones.

 

·March 14, 2020: Testnet phase launched-On the occasion of the first anniversary of Pi Network, the project entered the Testnet phase, marking an important step towards decentralization. This phase supports the deployment of globally distributed nodes, allowing community developers to test blockchain and create applications using Test-Pi.

 

·End of 2020: Node plan introduced- Pi Network launched a Node plan that allows users to run network nodes on personal computers. This move enhances Pioneers ‘contribution to network security and transaction verification and promotes decentralized development.

 

·December 2021: Closed main network start-up- Pi Network entered the closed main network phase, and the main network was officially launched, but it was still protected by firewall, preventing external connections. During this period, users can complete KYC (authentication) and migrate Pi to the real-time main network, while the community builds applications and utilities within the closed network.

 

·October 2023: Roadmap released-The Pi core team released a milestone based roadmap detailing past achievements, current projects and future plans. The roadmap enhances transparency and outlines key steps towards opening the main network.

 

·December 2024: Open Network Update-The Pi Network team announced that the open main network originally planned for late 2024 will be postponed to the first quarter of 2025. The decision aims to allow more users to complete KYC certification and migrate their tokens to the main network to ensure that the ecosystem is more inclusive and secure.

 

·January 2025: Mainnetwork migration progress-As of January 2025, more than 18 million users of the Pi Network have completed KYC certification, of which more than 8 million users have migrated their tokens to the mainnetwork. The team extended the grace period for KYC and mainnet migrations to January 31 to further support the transition.

 

Although the team attributed the delay to KYC reviews and ecological construction, the community questioned its deliberate delay to maintain token scarcity.

 

2. Doubts about hundreds of billions of valuation: the fatal trap after complete dilution

 

Based on a maximum supply of 100 billion units, if Picoin reaches US$1, its fully diluted valuation (FDV) will reach US$100 billion-more than one-third of Ethereum’s current market value (US$315 billion). But this faces two major paradoxes:

 

– Circulation black hole: Currently, only 2 billion Pi has been migrated to the main network, and the remaining 98 billion Pi has to be gradually released through mining. If the team controls the unlocking pace, it may cause selling panic;

 

– Insufficient application scenarios: Most of the existing 80 DApps are Utility apps, lacking value capture scenarios such as DeFi and NFT, and their ecological blood-making capabilities are questionable.

 

3. Regulation and privacy: a double-edged sword for compliance

 

Pi Network’s compliance strategy hides risks:

 

– Excessive KYC collection: Users need to submit ID cards, facial recognition, and residence certificates, which far exceed the requirements of regular projects and pose potential dangers of data leakage;

 

– Regulatory encirclement and suppression risks: If the SEC judges Picoin as a securities (similar to the XRP lawsuit), its U.S. ecosystem may collapse instantly.

 

3. Open online launch: Four key verification indicators

 

February 20, 2025 is not only a technical milestone, but also a touchstone for the value of Pi Network. The following four major indicators will determine its success or failure:

 

1. Exchange liquidity test

 

– Real trading volume: If mainstream exchanges such as HTX and Binance open spot trading in Pi coins, it is necessary to observe whether there is a “crash on the launch”;

 

– Price anchoring: The current gap between Taiwan’s P2P price (about US$1) and IOU futures price (US$48.3) is huge, and the convergence direction of the spread indicates market confidence.

 

2. Degree of node decentralization

 

– Verify node distribution: If the top 10 nodes control more than 50% of computing power, it will violate the original intention of “civilian blockchain”;

 

– Anti-censorship capabilities: Can open networks withstand government-level firewall blockages, especially in sensitive areas such as Southeast Asia.

 

3. Developer migration

 

– DApp explosion speed: Will the number of main-network applications exceed 500 and at least one phenomenal application appear in the next three months;

 

– Cross-chain interoperability: The progress of asset bridging with Ethereum and Solana determines whether it can integrate into the mainstream ecosystem.

 

4. Token economy model

 

– Inflation control: Whether the speed of mining release leads to hyperinflation, refer to the market value collapse of Helium due to overissuance of tokens;

 

– Burning mechanism: The proportion of intra-application fee destruction determines whether Pi coin can enter a deflation cycle.

 

4. Future deduction: three possible scenarios

 

Scenario 1: Utopia comes true (probability 30%)

 

– Key assumptions: zero failure on the main network, the average daily transaction volume of the exchange exceeds US$1 billion, and the emergence of million-user DApps;

 

– Price forecast: Picoin stands firm at US$5, and FDV reaches US$500 billion, ranking among the top five in crypto market value;

 

– Social impact: Become an inclusive financial infrastructure for developing countries and shake SWIFT’s hegemony.

 

Scenario 2: Moderate growth (probability of 50%)

 

– Key assumptions: technology is stable but application is mediocre, and annual inflation rate is controlled within 15%;

 

– Price forecast: Picoin fluctuates between US$0.5 and US$2, and its market value is equivalent to Dogcoin (about US$30 billion);

 

– Social impact: Maintain the status of a regional payment instrument, similar to Vietnam’s MoMo e-wallet.

 

Scenario 3: Bubble bursting (probability of 20%)

 

– Key assumptions: main-network downtime, regulatory crackdown, team selling tokens;

 

– Price forecast: Pi coin plummeted to below US$0.1, and the community defended its rights on a large scale;

 

– Social impact: triggering a global crisis of trust in the “zero-cost mining” model.

 

5. Conclusion: A social experiment about blockchain beliefs

 

The essence of Pi Network is a social collaboration experiment-it uses minimalist interactions to attract a large number of users, uses delayed gratification to build community consensus, and uses civilian narratives to challenge elitism. Its success or failure is not only related to the token price, but will also verify two ultimate propositions:

 

1. Does blockchain require a technical threshold? If 50 million small white users can create a prosperous ecosystem, large-scale adoption of Web3 will no longer be far away;

 

2. Does value have to come from scarcity? If zero-cost mining Picoin is recognized by the market, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative may encounter challenges.

 

Personal opinion: 

 

Pi Network’s open network launch is the most suspenseful encryption event in 2025. Its huge user base and real-life application scenarios have disruptive potential, but the six-year delay and valuation bubble are also like the sword of Damocles. In the short term, price fluctuations may occur due to the release of liquidity after the main network is launched; in the long run, its fate depends on whether it can evolve from a “social fission artifact” to a “value creation engine.” If the team can restrain greed and focus on ecology, Picoin may indeed become the “civilian currency” of the crypto-world; if it repeats the mistake of capital trading, this experiment will become the most expensive lesson in the history of blockchain.

 

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