Alliance DAO founders talk: Solana will eventually win, Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR) may become a new ETF moment

You have to be on Solana.

Compiled and compiled: Deep Trend TechFlow

Guests:Imran Khan, founder of Alliance DAO;Qiao Wang, founder of Alliance DAO

podcast source：Good Game Podcast

original title：On Consumer Crypto | EP 70

air date: February 7, 2025

background information

Imran and Qiao, together with Tensor’s Iljia and Richard, had an in-depth exchange to discuss consumer-facing cryptocurrency and other related topics, providing entrepreneurs with direct insights into cryptocurrency.

The main topics are as follows:

• market analysis

• Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) is underway- David Bailey

• The profound impact of government policies on the economy

• The popularity of AI and prediction of future trends

• Vine & JellyJelly

• Future prospects for tokenization in startups

• Clout and Tribe

• Tensor Team: Richard and Ilja’s vision

• Tokenization strategy as market entry point

• The combination of Memecoin and the attention economy

• Vector’s current status of scale growth

• Qiao’s annual experiment sharing

• Trend of developers migrating from Ethereum to Solana

• Analysis of user profiles on different blockchains

• Outlook on the final form of blockchain technology

• Coinbase’s strategic layout

• Discussion on Blast should be Hyperliquid

market analysis

Imran: A lot of noteworthy things have happened in recent weeks. In the past month, the overall market has shown a continuous downward trend. I think our sentiment is highly consistent with the market’s performance.

Qiao: The market does seem a little weak.

Imran: Overall, the market is digesting the impact of Trump’s major news and subsequent liquidity injections. As for the market’s trend in the short term, I cannot give a clear judgment, but in the medium and long term, I am still optimistic about the market.

Qiao：I think the market may remain sideways in the short term.In fact, there has been a lot of good news in the past two weeks, such as executive orders supporting cryptocurrencies, repeal of the SAB Act, advancement of the stablecoin Act, and some policy speeches on cryptocurrencies. However, despite all the positive news, there was little response from the market. This situation reflects the market’s relatively cold response to these good news. However, from a macroeconomic perspective, I think the overall economic situation is still good.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) is underway

Qiao：David Bailey mentioned that the current performance of the market is misleading. He wrote in a tweet that at today’s press conference, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) program was advancing. This is the top priority led by the DJT. They are gathering the country’s top officials and plan to develop a complete plan within the next 80 days. It is worth noting that half of the members of the working group are people who have achieved great success in related fields.The SBR plan is gradually being implemented. If SBR is really implemented within the next 80 days, the current market pricing for it is obviously seriously underestimated. This potential impact cannot be fully reflected through existing market mechanisms.

Qiao：It reminds me of Bitcoin. ETF launch.At that time, many people thought that Bitcoin ETFs were bad news and suggested selling them. But the truth is quite the opposite. The launch of the Bitcoin ETF actually opens a whole new door for financial institutions and traditional investors to enter the Bitcoin market, especially those from the traditional financial sector and older investors, right?

The situation in SBR is very similar. If the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Program is successfully implemented, it will mark formal participation at the government level.Not only the federal government, but also state governments, and even other governments, may choose to cooperate with the United States, or at least try to keep up with this trend. As a result, a new group of net Bitcoin buyers will appear on the market, who are currently completely absent from the market. At the same time, the movements of sovereign wealth funds are also worthy of attention, as they may become an important force driving this trend.

Imran：In addition, the Trump administration is planning to create a sovereign wealth fund. It is reported that the fund will be operated by Cantor Fitzgerald’s Lutnik, who himself has huge investments in the cryptocurrency field, especially Bitcoin. If he were to get involved and lead the sovereign fund, things could get very interesting.

From my perspective, the market is a bit chaotic right now. We have just experienced a huge meme bubble, Bitcoin has reached an all-time high, but at the same time, there are these extremely optimistic news coming out, and it seems difficult for the market to respond clearly to this information.

Qiao：I don’t think the market is really confused. It’s just that the market has already reflected most of the good news in prices.

If the SBR plan is really implemented, we will see a sharp rise in the market. But until then, I think the market may remain depressed for some time.

Imran：I understand that this should have results within 80 days, right? They should announce the news within 80 days. So I think the current market downturn will improve soon.

Qiao：However, for those who rely on OPM (Other People’s Money, others ‘money), Standard Bank, which manages $870 billion in assets, has predicted that Bitcoin could soar to $500,000 before the end of Trump’s presidency.What do you think? Half a million dollars? $500,000 is equivalent to almost one-third of the total market value of gold, or even more than half of the market value of gold.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin did rise to $500,000. On the contrary, the price of gold may fall to some extent as a result, as funds may flow from gold to Bitcoin.

Imran: Did you see how gold performed today or yesterday? What do you think drives all this? Do you think it’s just the uncertainty of global tariffs?

Qiao：Gold has reached a record high. I feel it’s mainly because of the huge uncertainty surrounding Trump. During Trump’s first term in office, chaos could almost be described. He has launched a trade war with all countries, including U.S. allies. Gold is not only a tool to hedge chaos, but is also used to hedge the risk of huge U.S. debt.

The profound impact of government policies on the economy

Imran：I did some simple calculations. The U.S. government expects to reduce the fiscal deficit by about $1 trillion a year. The current annual deficit of the United States is about $2 trillion. If we can really reduce 1 trillion yuan, the country’s fiscal deficit will gradually decline in the long run, which will have a profound impact on interest rates and inflation, even without the Federal Reserve’s direct intervention.

Qiao：And the Fed may be rethinking their strategy, because all of this government influence will change the speed at which they cut interest rates.

“I’m glad Powell didn’t cut interest rates-Trump

Imran：Trump’s recent change in attitude is also very interesting. A few days ago, he tweeted that Powell needed to cut interest rates immediately, and even said he would have to cut interest rates no matter what. But a few days later, he tweeted again:“I am very happy that Powell did not cut interest rates, and I very much respect his decision.” rdquo;This change in attitude is really thought-provoking, but I’m not sure what the meaning is behind it.

Qiao：In the short term,Reduction in government spending may bringdeflationPressure,Because it actually takes some money out of the economy. Government spending is an important part of the economy, which is basic common knowledge in macroeconomics. But at the same time, tariff policies will bring inflationary pressures. If they restore tariffs, it will undoubtedly push inflation.

Imran：I think this is more like a negotiation strategy for Trump. He used similar tactics in 2017, forcing the parties to renegotiate the agreement. For him, these news are just tools. He secured 20,000 law enforcement officers from the Mexican government to strengthen border controls, which could theoretically reduce the inflow of drugs and illegal immigrants. An additional 10,000 law enforcement officers from Canada are now deployed on the Washington border. At the same time, I also saw news reports that Canada’s drug smuggling management is relatively weak, and many drug trafficking groups have reorganized in Canada and transported drugs to the United States through channels there. These measures are undoubtedly beneficial to the U.S. economy. So, I thinkTrump’s goal has always been to pressure his deal.

He imposed tariffs on China, and China said: We will also impose tariffs on you. rdquo; Therefore, the U.S. Postal Service has stopped providing services to platforms such as Temu and companies like Alibaba. This caused the companies ‘share prices to fall by 2% to 5% respectively. In my opinion, Trump is just using these means to force the other side to do what he wants. Although this strategy may bring market fluctuations in the short term, in the long run, he can often achieve his goals.

Qiao: I don’t recommend that you make transactions based on these short-term news. No one except Trump’s inner circle can truly grasp the advantage of this information.

The popularity of AI and prediction of future trends

Imran：I think almost every startup in the future will use encryption and AI in some form. These technologies can be embedded into products in a variety of ways, so companies no longer need to emphasize themselves specifically as a crypto startup or AI startup. They will only be called startups, and these technologies will become one of the core features of the product. This trend also opens up more possibilities for startups to innovate in AI and encryption. In fact, many of the startup applications we receive don’t even involve encryption at all, but focus on AI.

What do you think drives this phenomenon?I read an application a few days ago, and someone said: Although we are an AI startup, I have seen some potential applications of encryption and want to try and explore it. rdquo; He has no understanding of encryption at all, but still wants to try it, which makes me very interesting. This seems to confirm our point: Every startup finds that encryption and AI are ultimately just a feature in their core products.

Qiao：In the past two years, many people have tried to predict the integration of AI and encryption, but many of the assumptions have seemed far-fetched. For example, some people hope to use encryption technology to train AI, or use AI to solve some problems in the field of encryption, but these attempts do not have much practical significance. I think it’s more realistic that people will develop products that use Large Language Models (LLMs) in some functions and introduce encryption in others. This integration is natural, and the technology is hidden in the background, and end users don’t even need to know that these features exist. They just need to enjoy a better user experience without having to understand whether the product is AI-driven or crypto-driven.

Imran：There are two mainstream views on AI.One believes that AI will become as authoritative as China, and the other believes that AI will completely replace human work.But in fact, no one has really considered the middle path:How AI can improve our efficiency and optimize ourbusiness model。Similarly, technologies such as AI and encryption will gradually become part of product features rather than separate selling points. They will improve the user experience tenfold, but users don’t even need to know about the technology. This trend made me realize that we don’t need to deliberately distinguish between crypto startups and AI startups, they are essentially tools to increase productivity. People always tend to go to extremes, but in reality, the future is more likely to be somewhere in between.

DeepSeek

Imran：We discussed the potential impact of DeepSeek a few months ago when it was first launched. But recent news has attracted more attention, such as their claim to complete a project for just $6 million. However, different people’s views on this matter vary widely. Some people believe that it is impossible to achieve this with just $6 million, and there may be more resources behind DeepSeek.

Qiao：Regardless, one thing is clear: AI reasoning and model training costs are falling rapidly. This is good news for application layer development.

There are similar trends in the cryptocurrency space. We have noticed that as infrastructure costs decline, the encryption industry is gradually shifting from the infrastructure layer to the application layer.

Because whether it is AI or cryptocurrency, cost reductions in infrastructure are driving more application-level innovation.

Talk about the recent Vine JellyJelly

Imran: Vine and Jelly are two of the most interesting things that have happened recently.This once again proves the potential of tokenization and may become an important opportunity in the crypto field in the future. I call it application tokens or Meme, and these are a subdivision of tokens

There have been two interesting stories recently. The first is that after Trump introduced personal tokens, people began to regard tokenization as a novel marketing method. Vine’s founders sold Vine to Twitter in 2018 for $30 million.

Elon Musk has been discussing whether to restart Vine on Twitter for years, initiating a vote on it every few months. Recently, an external team from Vine launched a token project with the theme of bringing Vine back. According to their plan, 5% of the supply of Vine tokens will be donated to Twitter. If Vine can successfully return, there are currently more than 145,000 token holders. Since the launch of the project, they have rekindled people’s interest in Vine through the Meme culture and the spread effect of tokens.

What’s even more interesting is that Vine’s social media activities and private Twitter groups have begun to form a kind of community energy. For example, someone would graffiti Vine’s sign on the street, or print Vine’s sign and stick it on the wall. This phenomenon is driving Vine’s return. I find this case very interesting.

Use app tokens for advertising spending

Imran: I thinkTokens, or application tokens, can essentially be seen as a form of advertising spending.As more and more people become interested in it, this phenomenon may be related to who the founder is or other factors. Through tokens, you can attract users and even occupy a certain psychological share of the market. In my opinion, there is a correspondence between advertising spending and viral spread. Meme is a form of token, while application tokens are more like a tool to promote viral spread. This may also involve concepts similar to the user acquisition funnel. Jelly’s team has tried a similar approach.

JellyJelly

Qiao: What is the status of JellyJelly’s token issuance?

Every time they launch tokens, I sleep. They always publish at 9 p.m., and I have a habit of turning off all screens two hours before going to bed. So I miss it every time. Trump tokens are at 9 p.m., Vine’s tokens are at 9 p.m., and Jelly’s tokens are at 9 p.m., so I may have missed out on about eight-figure gains.

Imran：These are just ongoing experiments that I think will get better in the future and continue to improve over time.

Qiao：Now everyone’s consumption habits have changed. Issuing tokens has become so common that it’s no longer surprising for anyone to launch a token, and it all started with the launch of $TRUMP.

Future prospects for tokenization in startups

Imran：I think that in the future, almost all startups will use tokens, both as a means of self-financing and as a way to gain users. This is my judgment on the future trend. I have discussed this issue with many people on Twitter, and some of them disagree with me.

They always say: Oh, this can’t work.& rdquo; Then his extreme supporters would madly like his tweets. This is completely different from the world before, and I can understand that this change is unacceptable. Obviously, these innovations can happen on some blockchains that you don’t like. But because of this, this is the real soil for innovation.

Clout and Tribe

Imran：Before we talked about startups and app tokens, now let’s talk about Clout and Tribe. I think the concept of Creator Token is similar, with the core assumptions being:The cost of gaining followers is low.You can easily attract a lot of followers. But the question is, are people willing to pay for social capital? That is to say,In an environment where followers are flooded, can social capital become a yardstick for measuring whether a person is truly influential?

We are currently trying two very different experiments.One is a more user-friendly platform, anyone can easily buy and hold tokens, with simple operation and low barriers.The other is more oriented towards the field of encryption, provides a new way to interact with creators. For example, users can use tokens to participate in creators ‘live broadcasts and interact with them in real time, and can also support creators through a subscription model. So these two experiments represent two different experiences we are exploring.

Tensor team members ‘views

Imran：I think this is exactly what is happening in the entire speculative crypto market right now. In the token space, the Tensor team has many unique insights, especially in consumer transactions. Today we invited Richard and Ilja, the founders of Tensor and Vector, to share their thoughts.

Consensus mechanism and Vector’s development direction

Imran: What do you think of consensus mechanisms? What is the current product direction?

Richard：Our team has created a very excellent mobile native trading experience for Meme. It can be said that we were one of the first teams to try this model. Projects like Moonshot are also an example worth mentioning. Now, more and more teams are realizing that it is feasible to build a high-quality trading experience on the mobile side, such as integrating wallet functions directly into applications. The user’s logical derivation is:Can you move all these professional Meme trading functions to your mobile phone?These platforms provide complex statistics and trading charts. In other words, we can implement a Tensor-like experience on mobile, but focus on Memes.

However, starting from first principles, we need to think about one question:Do professional traders really choose to complete complex transactions on mobile?Maybe, but historically, mobile devices are more suitable for scenarios that require fast operation anytime, anywhere. For example, someone may complete a transaction quickly on the train, during work breaks, or during breaks, rather than staring at the screen all day for four to five hours of in-depth operations like on the desktop. Therefore, fundamentally speaking, we believe that the goal of mobile is not to provide professional-level trading capabilities, but to create a trading experience that is easier to use and more suitable for retail users. At the same time, we will also consider developing desktop applications to achieve seamless connection between the two.

At present, the professional trading market on the desktop side is already a red sea. There are many teams developing almost identical products, and the competition is fierce. Therefore, we decided to give priority to retail investors ‘mobile products and then gradually consider desktop development. We also deliberately avoid adding professional features directly based on user feedback, but hope to provide users with some new experiences and make them realize that these features are unique to mobile. For example, mobile terminals can achieve real-time reminders through push notifications, or quickly copy transactions and other functions, which cannot be done on the desktop. This is exactly the differentiated experience we want to create in mobile native apps.

Photon

Imran：I think Photon’s functions are excellent. You also provide features like Meme Scope that allow users to participate first in some upcoming token projects. I have noticed that users like to share trading ideas and interact with each other through the platform.How do you view the differences between these markets? Do you aim to orient your product more towards social interactions between ordinary consumers, or do you focus on the needs of professional traders? How do you balance these directions?

Ilja：Trading is a very complex and multi-dimensional game, which is also its charm. The more complex the game, the greater the challenge, the more interesting it will be. Different users will participate in the game in different ways. This was an important understanding we had when developing our second trading product.

When we entered the NFT space, we found that most people were participating in transactions in a single way. As a result, we have developed a series of professional tools to help users participate in more diverse ways. In this new product, we are moving in almost the opposite direction. In the past, people were accustomed to participating in Meme token transactions through quantitative analysis and professional tools, but we hope to introduce a new interactive experience based on social signals.

vector.fun

Ilja：Good start-ups often change the industry landscape by redefining the market rather than simply competing with existing companies. They will tell users that what you focused on in the past has become irrelevant.

The same is true for Vector. We are not simply telling users to use Vector because it provides faster and more efficient trading tools. Instead, we want to tell you that fast trading tools are no longer so important. We make it irrelevant by providing richer signals, more interesting content, and experiences that can be consumed anytime, anywhere. For example, you can quickly browse and participate in transactions on the bus or even in the bathroom. There may be no ready-made market for this experience, no one is interested, or it may even be a bad idea. But we believe that we will only know the answer if we try. Judging from the current user feedback, we have indeed found some needs.

Users do like to share their trading results with others through a broadcast method. This is also the core concept of Vector. Just as the core of Twitter is letting users tweet, the core of Vector is letting users share transaction dynamics.

Richard： For example, someone shared a deal saying they made $2 million today. The transaction was completed through a token launched on the Pump Fun platform. Developers actually completed their first transaction on Vector, almost in the form of an advertisement. They may not be sure about the future of the project, but they decided to buy tokens for their own project for $500. If the project is successful, this will become a case of viral spread. In fact, this is exactly what happened. Users took screenshots and shared the results of the deal. Therefore, the developer used the Vector platform to effectively promote the project, and once the project was successful, it would attract widespread attention.

Comparative analysis of Vine and Jelly

Qiao: What do you think of Vine and Jelly? The two tokens attracted a lot of attention when they were first launched, and their prices soared rapidly, but then fell rapidly. What do you think we can learn from this?

Imran：Jelly’s popularity has gradually subsided, while Vine’s performance is relatively good.

Qiao：Vine’s price trend is relatively stable, while Jelly is like a Christmas tree.

Richard：It’s really interesting. I think we are experiencing a shift in mindset, especially in the way we look at assets. In traditional financial markets, such as the U.S. stock market, there are about 30,000 stocks available for trading, plus some assets such as bonds. In the cryptocurrency and decentralized finance (DeFi) space, although some assets are limited in number, it is becoming increasingly difficult to launch a token with sufficient liquidity. On a platform like Pump Fun, there may be only about 100 tokens that most people really pay attention to. But through the bond curve mechanism, the market has opened the flood gate for token issuance, allowing almost unlimited introduction of new tokens.

This also means we need to look at these tokens in a new way.The speculative cycle for each token may be very short, but similar opportunities will continue to emerge, with different asset types.

Tokenization strategy as market entry point

Imran：somePeople in non-crypto fields are entering the crypto market by issuing tokens。It can be said that this has almost become a new marketing strategy to attract attention and gain users through tokens.—— For example, Vine’s founders launched a token designed to spark the Twitter team’s interest in redeveloping the Vine client. Some people even painted Vine’s logo on the wall in New York to express their expectation for Vine’s return. In contrast, Jelly is trying a similar approach, but I think there may be some problems with their release strategy.

Qiao: What is the specific problem? If it were you, how would you improve?

Imran：I think the problem is that everyone is pouring into the market at the same time, resulting inA highly speculative bubble was formed in a short period of time.In such an environment, it is difficult for projects to get rid of this hype atmosphere, and efforts must be made to establish a more organic and sustainable growth model. This is a problem that needs to be faced.

Another problem is the so-called sniper.These people will snap up a large number of tokens in the first few minutes of their launch, accounting for 5% to 10% of the total, and then quickly sell off. Almost all token offerings face such a challenge.

However, from another perspective, this may not be unacceptable. thoseShort-term speculators will eventually exit the market, while long-term investors who truly believe in the project’s vision will stay.

More importantly, this phenomenon shows that by issuing tokens, an app can quickly attract market attention and users without relying on traditional public relations campaigns, media reports or venture capital support. Just by launching tokens, you can spark conversation, and then use the popularity to build a community.

When I first heard about Vine’s tokens, I thought it might be a scam because its market value was only about $1 million at the time. But then I saw Vine founder Russ post a video proving his identity. Since then, the community has taken over the project, and there is now a group of more than 8000 Vine enthusiasts who discuss Vine’s future every day.

The future of tokenization

Imran：I think we are entering a new era in which almost everything will be tokenized.

Qiao：Yes, for example, Ondo is tokenizing stocks, bonds, etc.

Imran：They are building a platform that allows anyone to tokenize stocks, bonds and ETFs. As the policy environment changes, the process of tokenization is accelerating.

Iljia：Looking back at early blog posts in the encryption field, the initial discussion actually focused on two points:First, you can own assets in a decentralized way, which was previously impossible; and second, tokens can be used to start the network.

But it should be noted that the Internet means not only mobility, but also attention. When you start out, you may have nothing and need to promote a two-sided market, such as on the Vector platform, with callers on one side and traders on the other. At this point, tokens become an excellent tool to encourage cold starts on the network. It can bring motivation and popularity, attract users ‘attention, and promote the formation of network effects. If you can create a truly popular product, users will naturally stay.

I also noticed an interesting phenomenon. In the past few years, due to policy regulations, many people have believed that the only use of a token is as a security or asset. This caused us to almost forget the original intention of the token——They are not meant to become securities, but to help start the network.

Now, as the policy environment changes, some smart entrepreneurs have begun to recognize this again and use tokens to build entirely new products. I believe that in the next two or three years, this trend will become more obvious and tokens will be everywhere.

Two main tokenization models

Richard：I think we can see two main tokenization models right now.The first is the tokenization of traditional financial instruments,For example, converting equity or future cash flows into tokens is closer to securitization.The other is to tokenize Real World Assets (RWAs)For example, digital expression of real assets or commodities through blockchain.

Recently, however, we have seen a new trend, meme. The value of this type of token is mainly driven by supply and demand and market consensus. In other words, people buy these tokens because they believe others will buy them, driving up the price. This model makes great sense in a bull market, where there is a lot of capital flowing in the market and investors want to make profits through speculation. But I wonder whether these attention-based tokens can survive multiple market cycles, especially in bear markets, whether they can still attract investors ‘attention, or just exist as a short-term speculative tool.

The combination of Memecoin and the attention economy

Qiao：Actually,Attention assets are not a new concept; they have appeared in multiple market cycles.For example, in the early days, dyed coins on Bitcoin could be seen as a form of attention assets. Similar ideas have been around for more than a decade. In the last market cycle, NFT became mainstream, and these are basically attention assets. Now, what we are seeing is the rise of memecoin. Although these tokens have different names, they are essentially attention assets, only in different forms of expression. If we had a sufficiently cheap and efficient blockchain in the previous cycle, memecoin might have become the dominant form rather than other speculative tool. So unless a new form of tokens emerges in the next cycle to carry attention, I think the popularity of memecoin will continue.

Richard：We are very optimistic about the future of attention assets, which is the core concept behind our construction of the Vector platform. We observe trends from NFT to memecoin, and these tokens reflect the mood and state of the market. In bull markets, they perform well, but in bear markets, they may be more susceptible to market fluctuations than those based on real assets (RWAs). Iljia：

It was really interesting. When we try to bring a new idea to market, we often apply it with old models or product logic. I can’t think of a name for this phenomenon at the moment, but it illustrates one thing: People still tend to think of the crypto industry as a financial industry. While crypto is indeed closely related to finance, its potential goes far beyond that. Encryption is actually a manifestation of the attention economy and can even be regarded as a new form of advertising. But many people still don’t fully understand this.

I think there are two very exciting types of products worth exploring in the crypto space.The first category is stablecoin products designed for developing countries, this can solve practical economic problems and is of great social significance.The second category is some extreme long-tail productsFor example, an attention asset with a life cycle of only 13 seconds. Although these products may seem crazy, they are full of innovative potential. Traditional products in between, such as placing equity on blockchain, are not so attractive to me. Because this is not a breakthrough innovation that can bring about 10 times improvement. In my opinion, the most successful companies in the future will be born in these two extreme areas.

Vector’s current status of scale growth

Imran：How is the scale of Vector developing at present? I notice that your trading volume has exceeded a billion dollars.

Iljia：At the peak of our platform, the total annual transaction volume was close to US$9 billion, and the average daily transaction volume was about US$25 million. At this rate, the annual transaction volume was about US$9 billion. I believe we have a chance to reach our previous peak again. Products like this take some time to improve, and we are constantly optimizing and fixing problems during the launch process.

To the current situation, we currently have 20,000 active users, 5,000 of whom are active traders, with a daily transaction volume of between US$5 million and US$15 million. It should be emphasized that this product has just been launched for two months and there is still much room for improvement.

Qiao: And the platform is still in the testing stage. Is it only available to whitelisted users?

Iljia：Yes, the current users are mainly whitelisted users in the testing phase. We want to be more cautious when promoting our products because this is a product that relies on social communication. Users who join through the invitation of friends usually feel more trusting and accept the product more easily. The invitation mechanism is designed to encourage users to invite their friends to join.

In addition, this method has another advantage: since the product has not yet been fully polished, new users can directly seek help from the friends who invited them when encountering problems during use, such as why can’t this feature work? rdquo; Or what does this operation mean? rdquo; This kind of hands-on support can greatly enhance the user experience. If you introduce users directly into an unfinished product, users may give up using it because of a poor experience. Once users give up, it is often difficult to try again. Therefore, we hope to gradually optimize the user experience through this cautious promotion method.

Qiao’s annual experiment sharing

Qiao：Well, I conducted my annual experiment and posted a tweet saying that Solana was the final form of blockchain, just to see the reaction.

The response this year is much better than last year. Last year, every fanatic supporter of Ethereum came to attack me. But things are different this year because many people just went through some crashes two weeks ago. So this year’s discussions have been relatively rational.

Imran：Speaking of which, I think it has something to do with the issues we talked about earlier today. Alliance, a neutral startup accelerator, is currently investing in multiple projects, including approximately 100 Layer 1 and Layer 2 projects, as well as emerging platforms such as Mega ETH, Monad, Abstract, Story Protocol and Hyper Liquid.

The list continues to grow, and we receive thousands of start-up applications, and the quality of projects we see on Base and Solana is truly unique.

But the problem is, there are so many Layer 1 projects being launched right now that I can’t even keep up with the progress. Blast’s launch was a success, but users reported that their opinions were not taken seriously and felt that they had been cut off.

I was a little surprised by Abstract’s performance. Although it was launched well, their strategy of focusing more on the consumer market seemed to be unpopular, and many users began to lose. I think this kind of frequent rotating launches makes users feel tired and the flow of liquidity into these Layer 1 projects is gradually reduced.

Qiao：This is indeed an issue worth exploring because it is very important to investors and start-up teams. The information we have is difficult to obtain in other fields because we are directly involved in the early stages of startup products.

A year ago, I didn’t pay much attention to the differences between Ethereum Layer 2 and Solana. But after looking at the performance of the startups we work with in both ecosystems, nowObviously, Solana is the better choice。We have seen many cases where the same product has almost no users on Ethereum Layer 2, but can run smoothly and attract a large number of users on Solana. I have encountered so much evidence that I now feel irresponsible not to advise founders to build on Solana. This conclusion is very clear.

Trend of developers migrating from Ethereum to Solana

Imran: I noticed something Base supporters of the company have turned to Solana. What do you think is the reason behind this?

Qiao：The reason is actually simple: it is easier to attract users on Solana. Although switching to Solana is not easy for developers familiar with EVM. They need to learn a whole new set of tools, as well as master the Rust programming language and Solana’s unique development framework. It may take a month or two, but even so, they still feel it’s worth it because Solana provides a better user base and ecological support.

I have actually owned Ethereum since the Genesis Block. But I sold it last year, and I held on to it for 10 years.You can imagine holding an asset for 10 years and then suddenly feeling that its growth potential is almost over. rdquo; It’s really over。

Analysis of user profiles on different blockchains

Imran：I think Base’s strategy is actually very good because they have strong distribution channels. Jessie’s strategy is that I want to help developers spread viral. The idea itself makes sense. But the reality is that when many developers publish applications on Base, they do not attract enough users and lack the necessary liquidity. I call this phenomenon speculative liquidity, which means applying the liquidity support needed for normal operations. On Solana, users seem more inclined to speculate and try new applications rather than staying on Base.

Qiao：When we say speculative, we don’t just mean those traders. These users are very open to new things and are willing to try a variety of new applications.

Imran: So from the user portraits,Base There is indeed a big difference between Solana and Solana. Is this because of cultural differences?

Qiao：I think this is related to both culture and product design. For example, there is currently no EVM wallet comparable to Solana’s Phantom.

On EVM, the user experience is very fragmented. New users often feel helpless when faced with numerous wallet options, which is a psychological burden for them. On Solana, there is currently only one mainstream choice for me, and that is Phantom. This single choice actually reduces the decision-making costs for users.

Outlook on the final form of blockchain technology

Imran：Although I hate to admit it, at present, Solana’s development has shown a winner-take-all trend. I mean, although there are still some emerging projects, the competition is far from over and could last for decades. For example, Hyperliquid is a very interesting startup that is built on Solana and has an attractive narrative logic. SUI and Aptos are also projects worthy of attention.What do you think blockchain will eventually develop into?

Qiao：In my opinion, there will eventually be four to five blockchains that will stand out and become the main force of the industry. Solana is clearly the current leader with obvious advantages. Except for Solana, I think SUI, Aptos and Monad It also has potential. These chains make full use of modern hardware technology to maximize transaction throughput while maintaining a certain degree of decentralization.

In contrast, Ethereum focuses more on achieving a high degree of decentralization and tries to resist government interference, but sacrifices a lot of scalability for this. From a practical perspective, this theory appears to be less competitive when dealing with high transaction volumes.

On the other hand, there are some chains that increase speed by centralizing nodes, but sacrifice decentralization. This model may be more friendly to market makers because they can collaborate with nodes in a centralized data center. However, this model has not been verified in practice because these chains have not yet been officially launched. Therefore, we need to continue to observe. I think they have a 10% to 20% chance of going against Solana, but currently Solana has very strong competitive barriers in terms of user throughput.

Double Zero is also very biased towards high-frequency trading (HFT), and their DNA lies in fast communication. This is exactly what high-frequency trading is good at. Hyperliquid and DeepSeek also come from the field of high-frequency trading.

Imran：Here is a pattern. In fact, when Anatoly first conceived Solana, he positioned it as an on-chain NASDAQ, which was the application scenario he originally wanted to implement.

Qiao：In my experience, among all centralized exchanges, NASDAQ’s technology is indeed the most advanced. Compared with NYC and CME, NASDAQ has the lowest latency and the most stable matchmaking engine. Because of this, market makers prefer to trade on NASDAQ.

Imran：It can be said that Anatoly’s idea is to start with the most difficult problems to build. For example, how to build a trading market or exchange on the chain? If you can solve this problem, you can build almost any other application. That’s why he’s so focused on this scenario, because if you can solve this problem on the chain, you can solve everything.

Projects such as Double Zero, Fire Dancer, and a growing number of apps are entering our ecosystem. For example, the founder of Clout, who was also one of the founders of Monkey (Monkey is one of the largest social apps in Web 2). He took the initiative to build on Solana, which is a good example. He came to us voluntarily, not us inviting him.

Qiao：Someone asked me, what is the proportion of founders on Solana and Ethereum? I think it’s about 50:50, but if you look at the top 1% of talents, I think the ratio is closer to 75:25. What do you think?

Imran：I feel the same. This is a big advantage for Solana, as founders who find a product market fit recommend Solana to their friends and colleagues and encourage them to build apps here. Over time, this word-of-mouth effect has formed Solana’s structural barriers.

Coinbase’s strategic layout

Imran：As a pioneer in the crypto industry, Coinbase has always been highly respected, and we all admire Brian Armstrong and his executive team, including Jesse. But from my external observations, Base may not be the best strategic choice for Coinbase.

Qiao：I think Base should try to build their own Layer 1.

Imran：Whether it’s Layer 2 or Layer 1, I mean, as a large company, Coinbase is politically tied too tightly to Base and its assets, which makes them under-supporting the assets of other ecosystems.

Not just political reasons, resource constraints are also a problem. Their resources are limited, so naturally they will give priority to Base. This also led to their inability to support Solana and did not even list many popular Memes.

Qiao：I’m not criticizing their choices, but I want to point out that Coinbase’s focus on Base has given them a tunnel vision of structure and politics that ignores important changes that are taking place like Solana.

Imran：It does. This resulted in a nine-hour withdrawal time for them on Solana and did not list many Memes that users wanted to trade. As a result, emerging projects like Moonshot have seized the opportunity and capitalized on the Solana Meme craze to attract 400,000 to 500,000 new users.

Qiao：These users could have entered Coinbase.

Imran：So I think Coinbase is gradually losing the macro vision they once had, and this is the potential crisis I see.

Qiao：We actually see very fierce competition between Coinbase and Solana. Coinbase’s Base is in sharp contrast to projects such as Jupiter, Meteora, and Moonshot. Disruptive innovations often start at the bottom, because too many tokens are minted and traded on the chain, and a centralized exchange cannot cover all of them, gradually losing market share.

Especially when contemporary coins are listed on Binance, the community tends to view it as a negative signal because the token price usually falls after listing.

Judging from app store data, projects like Phantom and Moonshot tend to be more popular than Coinbase, indicating that more and more users are choosing to trade directly online rather than decentralize exchanges.

Discussion on Blast should be Hyperliquid

Imran：I think it may be a little late now. Although the competition continues, Solana still holds the lead for now. Although the lead is not particularly large, I think they are gradually losing market share. We can talk about Hyperliquid. At least judging from the Twitter discussions, many influential founders are choosing to build projects based on Hyperliquid. I feel like they are attracting a large number of EVM Degen users (speculators in the Ethereum virtual machine ecosystem). In a sense, Hyperliquid should have been the role of Blast.

Blast had a chance to become a project like Hyperliquid, but they were too slow to move. I tried the Blast Wallet app, but I couldn’t even figure out what the core features of the app were. Although it offers a 20% yield, which sounds good, there are few other practical uses for the wallet.

So I think they lost the competition to Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid attracts EVM Degen community and build an ecosystem around trading functions.Even if their focus is just trading, this is acceptable. In addition, projects like SUI and Aptos are also growing rapidly. Their TVL (total locked volume) reached a record high today. These projects do have some highlights. Although I am not entirely optimistic, I cannot ignore their potential.

Qiao：I am open to this. But for now, Solana is still far ahead of all its competitors. I’m not saying the competition is settled, but I think there is less than a 50% chance that Ethereum’s Layer 2 (Layer 2 extension solution) or other emerging Layer 1 (Layer 1 blockchain) will overtake Solana, and maybe even 10% to 20%.

Imran：In addition, the way the new Layer 1 project is launched is also critical. So far, other than BeraChain, which has built a huge TVL foundation, the other projects haven’t really excited me from a narrative perspective. Many recently launched Layer 1 projects lack appeal and do not have sufficient incentives. I hope this situation will improve over time. In the end, the key still depends on what kind of products can be built on these platforms.

Welcome to join the official social community of Shenchao TechFlow

Telegram subscription group: www.gushiio.com/TechFlowDaily
Official Twitter account: www.gushiio.com/TechFlowPost
Twitter英文账号：https://www.gushiio.com/DeFlow_Intern