GuShiio.com ① CITIC Securities believes that the GDP growth target of around 5% is in line with expectations, and monetary policy predicts that the central bank will continue to cut policy interest rates, and the deficit rate will break through inertia constraints;
② The three clear policy ideas of technological AI innovation + supply-side “anti-involution”+ demand-side expansion of domestic demand are exciting. It is expected that the restoration of market confidence will gradually spread from the scientific and technological field to the economic field.
The 2025 Two Sessions will be held in Beijing as scheduled. CITIC Securities Research Department’s policy and macro, fixed income, strategy, real estate, banking, basic materials and engineering services, medical and health and other industry groups released their learning experiences from their respective field perspectives.
CITIC Securities believes that the GDP growth target of around 5% is in line with expectations, and the downward revision of the CPI growth target to around 2% shows that the government pays more attention to price issues; monetary policy continues the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference, and the central bank is expected to continue to cut policy rates while paying more attention to the healthy development of the property market; Fiscal policy reflects the firm determination to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment. The deficit rate breaks through inertia constraints, and the quotas of various instruments have been increased compared with 2024. We will coordinate efforts to boost consumption and investment, while taking into account supporting the real economy and financial institutions. In the field of consumption, making up for consumption shortcomings and expanding domestic demand have been regarded as the main driving force for driving the economy.
In addition to the expected aggregate economic goals, the three clear policy ideas of technological AI innovation + supply-side “anti-involution”+ demand-side expansion of domestic demand are exciting. It is expected that the restoration of market confidence will gradually spread from the scientific and technological field to the economy. field.
The following are the core views
policy
We believe that the GDP growth target of around 5% is in line with expectations, and the downward revision of the CPI growth target to around 2% shows that the government pays more attention to price issues; monetary policy continues the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference, and the central bank is expected to continue to cut policy rates, while paying more attention to the real estate market. Healthy development; Fiscal policy reflects the firm determination to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment. The deficit rate breaks through inertia constraints, and the quotas of various instruments have been increased compared with 2024. We will coordinate efforts to boost consumption and investment, while taking into account supporting the real economy and financial institutions. In the field of consumption, making up for consumption shortcomings and expanding domestic demand have been regarded as the main driving force for driving the economy. In terms of infrastructure investment, this year’s government investment policy orientation is to moderately increase the freedom of local governments in project approval and decision-making, and improve the leverage effect of government funds. It is expected that infrastructure investment will maintain a moderate boost to total demand. In terms of industrial policies, we will develop new productive forces according to local conditions, promote the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, and recommend focusing on policies and measures to encourage the development of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy. In terms of deepening reforms, we will promote the accelerated implementation of landmark reform measures, including the reform of central and state-owned enterprises, the unified national market, finance, taxation and finance, etc. In terms of opening up to the outside world, the General Assembly has fully judged and judged external challenges, and will accelerate the implementation of macro policies domestically to offset pressure and expand economic and trade relations externally to spread risks. In terms of risk prevention, we will gradually resolve risks during development and strive to achieve positive interaction between high-quality development and high-level security. In terms of low-carbon transformation, energy consumption intensity indicators have returned to 2021 levels, and production capacity monitoring and early warning have constrained “convoluted” competition.
a-share strategy
The two sessions in 2025 will be held as scheduled. In addition to the expected aggregate economic goals, the three clear policy ideas of technological AI innovation + supply-side “anti-involution”+ demand-side expansion of domestic demand are exciting. It is expected that the restoration of market confidence will gradually spread to the economic field. Following the three perspectives of technological innovation promoting industrial value reconstruction, supply-side reform guiding industry supply and demand clearing, and institutional optimization releasing consumption potential, we selected the A-share “New Core Assets 30” combination from the technology, industry and consumption sectors. China’s core assets are expected to usher in spring.
Fixed income and major asset categories
In 2025, my country’s economic growth target is set at around 5%, and the CPI growth target is set at around 2%, taking into account enthusiasm and possibility. Macroeconomic policies are “sooner if possible, sooner than later”. The intensity of fiscal policy has increased significantly throughout the year. The intensity was stronger at the beginning of the year. Monetary policy has continued the tone of “moderately loose”, and the pace of reducing reserve rate and interest rate cuts may be ahead of schedule. “Stabilize the property market and stock market” and prevent and resolve risks in key areas, involving many aspects such as the real estate market, local government debt, and risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions, which is conducive to maintaining market stability. For the financial market, we believe that the spring turmoil will shift from the first stage to the second stage, focusing on the possibility of the market spreading from a technological style; the pressure on funds in the bond market is expected to ease in stages, and interest rates will open up downside.
credit bonds
The implementation of fiscal policies in 2025 is expected to be more proactive. The total amount of new government debt for the whole year is expected to be 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan over the previous year, and fiscal expenditure will increase significantly. Among them, it is planned to arrange 4.4 trillion yuan in special local government bonds, a record high. It will also focus on investment and construction, land collection and purchase and purchase of existing commercial housing, and digestion of local government arrears to help the government and enterprises repair credit. As a result, the allocation of credit bonds will continue to focus on the gradual restoration of government credit and corporate credit by the promotion of debt conversion. It is recommended to pay limited attention to the urban investment sector and construction enterprises that have been significantly boosted by debt conversion and purchasing and storage work, as well as bank subordinated debt with stable capital adequacy ratios. In terms of term selection, we believe that different types of institutions should “take into account both the first and last”: on the one hand, the current rebound in short-term credit bond yields is very obvious. In the future, under the tone of “moderately loose” monetary policy, interest rates are expected to return to the downward range, whether it is from the perspective of absolute coupon and income elasticity, the allocation cost performance of short-term credit bonds has appeared; In the long run, the downward trend of the bond market will remain unchanged. For institutions with more stable debt sides such as insurance and pensions, 15-year or even 20-year-old credit bonds are more resilient than interest rates. They are the first choice under high interest rates but still subject to constraints at the top.
estate and infrastructure
Through studying the government work report and the briefing given by the State Council Information Office, we believe that the key to strictly controlling the increase and stopping the decline and stabilizing policies is to stabilize asset prices and stabilize residents ‘confidence. In addition, the report specifically emphasizes the need to effectively prevent the risk of real estate enterprises ‘debt default, and further helps real estate enterprises to stabilize their credit. Local government land transfer fee revenue is expected to rebound, and local arrears in infrastructure-related areas are expected to accelerate the digestion. The elimination of backward production capacity of some key raw materials (such as cement) is expected to accelerate, and the construction of emerging infrastructure to serve new quality productivity is expected to accelerate.
Basic Materials and Engineering Services
The 2025 “Government Work Report” clarifies that the increase in fiscal funds and chemical debt support is expected to drive the overall bottom of demand for infrastructure projects and building materials industries on the demand side. The new urbanization strategy will be further implemented, and the consumption of building materials in urban renewal and infrastructure is expected to get new amounts. On the supply side, structural reforms will continue to be deepened. We believe that with policy support, the clearing of backward production capacity in the cement industry is expected to accelerate, and supply and demand improvements and corporate profits are expected to be restored. In addition, emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy will continue to be cultivated and expanded this year. Leading infrastructure companies have been deeply involved in the segmented track and are expected to accelerate. We believe that the development trend of the infrastructure industry is improving and maintain the “Stronger than Major Markets” rating.
bank
The government work report shows that the implementation of more proactive macro policies in 2025 is expected to provide a stable and positive operating environment for the banking industry and stabilize financial risk expectations. Based on the repositioning of risk expectations and growth expectations of banks ‘business models, combined with scenario analysis of the economy and policies in 2025, we believe that there is still relatively certain upside in the valuation of the banking sector. It is recommended to grasp highly certain varieties throughout the year.
medical health
On March 5, 2025, Premier Li Qiang delivered a government work report to the Third Session of the 14th National People’s Congress, making key arrangements on the overall requirements and policy orientations for annual economic and social development, and giving important instructions on the development of the pharmaceutical industry in the coming year. In 2025, medical work will focus on strengthening basic medical and health services, implementing the health priority development strategy, and promoting the coordinated development and governance of medical care, medical insurance and medicine.
