GuShiio.com In the long run, AI Agents have a lot of room for development, which depends on the advancement of AI itself and the time and cost of training in the Web3 field.
Author: DeFi Teddy
AI Agent valuation has gone on a roller coaster. Where is the road ahead? As a Web3 AI entrepreneur and investor, the following are some personal thoughts:
1. Why did it collapse?
There are two triggering factors for the AI Agent collapse. One is that trump’s meme coins sucked away liquidity from the market. On the day trump was launched, many people sold AI coins to stud $trump; Another more important factor is the launch of low-cost deepseek, which reduced AI’s dependence on computing power and led to the collapse of Nvidia. The sentiment has also transmitted the stock prices of other AI companies and the currency prices of Web3 AI Agents, and even the U.S. -led technological innovation is also a blow, and the currency circle is strongly related to the United States (U.S. stocks).
But in the long run, the reduction in the cost of underlying computing power will be of great benefit to building AI Agents. For example, in developing AI applications now, due to the cost of chatgpt, developers can only reduce the number of calls. With deepseek, the cost problem will be greatly reduced.
2. AI Agent Valuation Logic
The current market value of AI Agent =(fundamentals + narrative)* market sentiment.
The fundamentals are the current situation of the project, such as cash flow, number of active users, user usage time, Twitter popularity, etc., while the narrative is the imagination of the project in the future. If the fundamentals are average now, but the narrative has prospects, the market will also pay the bill. This is the same as stock market users buying stocks that have losses but development prospects. Market sentiment fluctuates greatly. A while ago, the market fomo was in a serious mood, so it gave AI projects a lot of premiums; now that fud is very serious, the valuation has shrunk seriously.
3. Successful application of AI Agent
Why focus on the successful application of AI Agents rather than AI Infra? Because there are successful applications, Infra must be valuable; if you only look at Infra and do not have successful applications, the business model will not hold true.
At present,@AIxbt_Agent has proved the product market fit of AI Agents. Through LLM, we can quickly build an encrypted KOL that is more powerful than humans. AIxbt_Agent has long been in the top 3 in kAIto’s mindshare.
In addition, although @_kAItoAI is not an AI Agent, it is also a successful application of web3 AI. KAIto did not have a particularly good breakout point for encrypted data analysis before, but it suddenly found product market fit through yaps, and found high-quality KOL and content through LLM technology. It can also help project parties do marketing. Some top projects such as @StoryProtocol @monad_xyz have established cooperation with KAIto. Let both project parties and users check yaps at the same time, and the ultimate biggest beneficiary will be KAIto.
4. Problems faced by AI agents
The first problem is market sentiment, which can be fixed at this time; the second is liquidity. If there is a problem with the liquidity of the entire currency circle, the AI Agents rooted in the currency circle will definitely be affected; the third is that the AI Agents launched by pumpfun have many plate projects and have no long-term construction plans, squeezing the space for real long-term builders, and there is a certain amount of bad money to drive out good money; The fourth is that AI has strong language capabilities, but it has no outstanding capabilities in real trading decisions, and sometimes there may even be investment errors caused by illusions.
5. Follow-up outlook
In the short term, AI Agents may be subject to the above problems, but in the long run, there is a lot of room for development, which depends on the advancement of AI itself and the time and cost of training in the web3 field. @AIxbt_Agent is already a successful cryptographic KOL, and the next stage is DeFAI, but it is still early days. Recalling that DeFi first proposed it in the summer of 2018, and the real prosperity was DeFi Summer two years later. Perhaps DeFAI also needs such a cycle.
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