Is the bull market still there? These indicators will help you determine whether you can make a bottom-up now

Is it a good time to decide to vote for BTC again?

 Written by: Deep Trend TechFlow

Bitcoin fell from a high of nearly US$110,000 to a low of less than US$80,000. During this period, the market naturally cried more than laughed. Amid the sound of escaping and ending, the repeated strokes brought by Trump’s words and deeds also plunged the market into a more desperate atmosphere.

Although in terms of price alone, the current price of Bitcoin, which is close to US$90,000 per piece, is still at a relatively high level, according to CMC data, the current market panic and greed index has dropped to 25, the market has entered a “panic” stage, and market sentiment has entered recent years. low point.

High market play: Don’t panic, the cow is still there

The market is in a panic, but high-end traders are sending messages urging the market to remain calm and try to avoid panic and sell their precious chips.

Arthur Hayes in his new article《KISS of Death》He mentioned that Trump’s series of political strategies are quite like a double-edged sword for the crypto market. Extremely dramatic behavioral decisions are easier to be interpreted several times in the crypto market. While mobilizing market sentiment, they can also easily lead the market to fall into error. But combined with Trump’s past business behavior, although this behavior that stimulates the economy may cause indigestion in the market, it is a long-term positive for the rise of various assets (including Bitcoin), so keep calm and buy on dips is the current way to participate with a higher winning probability.

Lao Mao in his article “I’ll drink this milk, do whatever you want!” China also said that this round of bull market is too conservative compared to the madness of previous rounds, and Bitcoin’s increase is not particularly alarming. At the same time, the upcoming global flood relief and the power of the Trump administration ‘s cryptocurrency reserve policy are far from apparent, and indicators of the big cycle also show that the bear market has not yet arrived, and it is still in a reasonable space for a bull market.

Yes, in addition to the noisy noise of the market, there are many reference indicators that can keep investors calm. In such a panic moment, perhaps these indicators can help you get out of the emotional whirlpool and recognize the true state of the market.

Market indicators: Bitcoin has not reached its peak yet

The good news is that in the “List of Bullion Peak Signals” compiled by coinglass, 30 relevant data indicators all show that the market has not yet peaked, and it is even highly recommended to tighten assets at this time.

Let’s take a look at what some of these widely used indicators say.

1. Bitcoin Ahr999 Indicator

Created by Weibo user ahr999, also known as the “9 God Indicators”, it is an indicator used to guide Bitcoin investment decisions.

The calculation formula is (current price ² / 200-day cost/fitted forecast price), which is used to guide the fixed investment in Bitcoin.

threshold: Less than 0.45 is a bargain bottom, 0.45-1.2 is a fixed vote, 1.2-5 is waiting to take off, and 4 may be close to the top.

current value：0.92

judgment: Currently in the fixed investment range of Bitcoin (0.45-1.2), indicating that the market has not reached the top or bottom and there is still room for growth, tending to be in the early or mid-term bull market.

2. AHR999 x Top Escape Indicator

• defined: Based on the reciprocal deformation of AHR999, the formula is 3/AHR999.

• threshold: 0.45 may be the top.

• current value：3.28

• judgment: The current value is well above the threshold and has not reached the top. The indicator shows that it is still in a bull market.

3. PI cycle indicator

Historically, the highest index of the Pi cycle has effectively selected the market cycle high to within three days.

It uses the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350-day moving average of 350DMA x 2 (the multiple is the price value of 350DMA, not the number of days)

• threshold: The current price of $149,567 may be near the top.

• current value:$89,913

• judgment: Well below the threshold, indicating that the bull market has not reached the top of the bull market and is still in an upward phase.

4. Puell Multiple

• defined: The ratio of miners ‘daily income to the 365-day average, reflecting miners’ selling pressure. The specific calculation method is (daily miners ‘income/ 365-day moving average miners’ income).

• threshold: 2.2 May be near the top.

• current value：1.05

• judgment: The current value is below the threshold, the selling pressure of miners is low, and the indicator shows that it is still in a bull market.

5. Rainbow Chart

• defined: Bitcoin price range based on logarithmic regression is divided into scales 1-9, with 9 being extremely overvalued.

• threshold: 5 May be near the top.

• current value：3

• judgment: Being in the mid-low range indicates that the market is not overheating and is still within the reasonable range of a bull market.

6. Bitcoin-MVRV Z Score

• defined: Standardized score for the MVRV ratio, a measure of market valuation.

• threshold: 5 indicates overvaluation and may top.

• current value：1.98

• judgment: Below the threshold, the market is not overheating, and indicators show that it is still in a bull market.

7. USDT Current Financial Return

• defined: The annualized rate of return on USDT wealth management products reflects the market cost of capital.

• threshold: 29% indicates that funds are tight and may top.

• current value：6.1%

• judgment: Well below the threshold, funds are loose and support the bull market.

8. Altcoin Season Index

• defined: The shanzhai quarterly index is also one of the most used indices by the market as a reference for bulls and bears, by comparing the performance of Bitcoin and other major altcoins. If most altcoins perform better than Bitcoin, then it can be considered a shanzhai season. Although this bull market is different from the past and the traditional shanzhai season may not recur, it is still relatively recognized by the market as an indicator that has been effective many times in a large cycle.

• threshold: 75 indicates that the altcoin season may be late in the bull market.

• current value：18.00

• judgment: Well below the threshold, Bitcoin dominates, and indicators show that it is still in the early or mid-term bull market.

9. Bitcoin market share

• defined: Bitcoin’s percentage of the total market value of the crypto market has remained between 50% and 60% in the past year

• threshold: 65% may indicate a strong top for Bitcoin.

• current value：60.21%

• judgment: Near but not reaching the threshold, Bitcoin dominates but not reaching the peak.

10. Bitcoin Reserve Risk

• defined: Measures the ratio of holder confidence to opportunity cost.

• threshold: 0.005 may be near the top.

• current value：0.0023

• judgment: Below the threshold, holder confidence is high, indicating that the current bull market is in place.

11. Bitcoin Unrealized Net Profit and Loss (NUPL)

• defined: Percentage of unrealized profit or loss.

• threshold: 70% may be near the top.

• current value：50.27%

• judgment: Below the threshold, more than half of Bitcoin positions are profitable but not overheated, and are still in the rising bull market.

12. CBBI Index (Cryptocurrency Bubble Index)

• defined: The CBBI Index is a comprehensive indicator of the Bitcoin market cycle, consisting of Mayer multiple, stock market circulation ratio, 200-week moving average, top of the Pi cycle indicator, gold ratio multiplier, 2-year MA multiplier, universal valuation indicator, and logarithmic growth curve. Help investors more accurately judge the cycle stage in which the Bitcoin market is in.

• threshold: 90 may be the top.

• current value：73

• judgment: Close to but not reaching the threshold, indicating that the bull market is hot but not overheated.

13. Bitcoin Mayer Multiple

• defined: Mayer Multiple is a technical indicator created by Trace Mayer for Bitcoin that evaluates market conditions by comparing current prices to the 200-day moving average. This indicator is unique in that it can quickly reflect the valuation level of the market and is an important tool for judging the bitcoin bull-bear cycle. Mayer multiple = current price/ 200 average daily price

• threshold: 2.2 May be near the top.

• current value：1.05

• judgment: Well below the threshold, not overheating, indicators show that it is still in a bull market.

Also attached is a chart of the bull market escape indicator:

Although the signal refers to the cow, the operation must be cautious

Combined with various indicators, Bitcoin is still in a bull market range. One indicator may not be credible enough, but multiple indicators together indicate that the bull market is still there, which also gives people some sense of peace of mind in an impetuous market environment.

Implementing it into specific operations mayReference indicators and market sentiment slowly decide to invest in BitcoinIt is the most legal operation. After all, combined with the market situation of the past year, this round of bull market is no longer a simple market with equal rain and dew. Players do not take orders from each other and narratives are strong and weak throughout. In addition, hot currencies do not fall with Bitcoin, and cold currencies do not follow Bitcoin. The phenomenon of rising with Bitcoin is becoming increasingly frequent. Various unexpected black swans appear many times in extremely short cycles, so it may not be so clever to rely entirely on indicators or other people’s market suggestions.

Following the pace of the market and flexibly responding to every day’s changes is the way to survive this special bull market. 

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