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GuShiio.com鼔狮智能 Editor:鼔狮
In 2025, how will the provinces plan their future development? Recently, the two sessions of local governments in various provinces have come to an end, which provides us with an excellent window to observe the trends and goals of local economic development. From the goals and key tasks set by various provinces, we can get a glimpse of the future economic vane.
Today, I will take you to analyze the situation and development potential of various provinces from three core goals – GDP growth rate, fiscal revenue growth expectations and price increase targets. At the same time, we will also focus on the key areas of concern in various provinces to find out the real direction of local economic development. These goals and key areas are not only the baton of local governments, but also the weather vane of resource allocation, which is crucial to personal development and career choices. So, after listening to this lecture, you might as well share it with your family and friends. (A study list is attached at the end of the article, welcome to forward and share!)
I. GDP growth target: caution and differentiation coexist
1. Overall trend: stability is the top priority
From the GDP growth targets for 2025 announced by various provinces, the overall tone is “stability”, which specifically presents the following three characteristics:
More cautious: Compared with 2024, only Tianjin raised its GDP growth target for 2025, while 15 provinces lowered their targets, and another 15 provinces remained unchanged. Among them, Hainan significantly lowered its 2025 target by two percentage points because the actual growth rate in 2024 was only 3.5%.
Obvious regional differentiation: The growth target presents a “river-like” ladder distribution, gradually decreasing from west to east. Tibet ranks first with a target of more than 7%, followed by Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, with a growth target of about 6%; central provinces such as Henan, Hubei and Hunan are set between 5.5% and 6.0%; eastern coastal developed regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Beijing and Shanghai generally expect a growth of about 5.0%.
Economically developed provinces take the lead: Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Henan, the five major economic provinces, still adhere to the 5% growth target. Although Sichuan has slightly lowered it, it still remains at 5.5%. These economically developed provinces will continue to play a key role in stabilizing the national economy.
2. How to interpret the GDP growth target?
The GDP growth target not only reflects the confidence of local governments, but also indicates the amount of new wealth and opportunities. Generally speaking, regions with a low base but fast growth (such as Tibet and Xinjiang) have great potential, while regions with a high base and reasonable growth (such as Guangdong and Jiangsu) are more stable. In contrast, provinces with a low base and low growth (such as Hainan and some provinces in the northeast) need to pay more attention.
II. Fiscal revenue growth and price pressure: Pains of transformation
1. Fiscal revenue growth expectations: overall pressure
Fiscal revenue is a core resource that a local government can directly control, and its growth rate directly reflects the local economic vitality. However, the fiscal revenue growth expectations for 2025 are not optimistic. According to statistics, the overall fiscal revenue growth target for each local government this year is 2.9%, down 1.5 percentage points from 4.3% in 2024.
This shows that the current economic transformation is in the pain period, and all regions are generally facing fiscal pressure. If your industry is not a key support area for local governments, it may be more difficult to get funds from the government. For companies engaged in local government projects, it is recommended to lower the target appropriately to avoid over-reliance on fiscal support.
2. Price increase target: deflationary pressure continues
Provinces generally lowered their price increase targets for 2025 to around 2%, reflecting that deflationary pressure is still continuing. This means that competition in all walks of life will intensify further, and companies need to make a trade-off between maintaining sales and maintaining profits. As an ordinary employee, it is particularly important to keep your job and enhance your own value.
Three, local efforts: dual drive of consumption and industrial innovation
1. Industry: High-end manufacturing is the top priority
Industry is undoubtedly one of the key areas of concern for all provinces. According to statistics, about 80% of provinces have raised or maintained their targets for industrial added value above designated size. For example:
Economically developed provinces such as Guangdong, Shandong, and Zhejiang have raised their targets to more than 6%;
Tibet has set a high target of 16% due to its weak industrial foundation;
Energy-intensive provinces such as Xinjiang and Gansu have a target of 8%, while Jiangxi and Hubei have set it at 7.5%.
It is worth noting that even some western provinces with greater fiscal pressure (such as Guizhou, Gansu, and Qinghai) are working hard to promote the development of industrial manufacturing, especially high-end manufacturing. This shows that high-end manufacturing has become a strategic high ground for various places to compete for layout.
2. Fixed investment: Real estate drags down overall growth
In sharp contrast to industry, the growth rate of fixed investment has declined. Data show that the weighted target growth rate of fixed investment in various provinces in 2025 is 5.71%, lower than last year’s 6.35%. Among them, the weakness of real estate investment is one of the main reasons. For example, the actual promotion of the “monetary shantytown renovation” policy is limited, and the target growth rate of urban village renovation in many provinces and cities has even shown negative growth. Therefore, practitioners in related fields need to be mentally prepared that the progress may not be as optimistic as expected.
Fourth, local implementation path: focus on consumption and industrial innovation
1. Focus on consumption: expanding domestic demand is still the main theme
From the central government to the local governments, expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption are listed as the top priorities. The main strategies of each province include:
Replacement of major consumer goods: Relaxation of the threshold for subsidies for home appliances and automobiles, and some regions have also included mobile phones and smart devices in the support scope;
Expansion of service consumption: Cultural tourism, elderly care and childcare have become the focus, such as Beijing has increased the event economy, and Shanghai has laid out “national fashion brands”;
Social security bottom line: Pilot universal childcare, improve fertility supporting policies, and alleviate residents’ consumption worries.
2. Grasp industrial innovation: New quality productivity has become the main line of development
In terms of industrial innovation, various regions have taken “new quality productivity” as the core of economic transformation. Specific measures include:
Industrial cluster layout: Anhui has built a world-class new energy vehicle and photovoltaic energy storage cluster, and Shanghai has focused on low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence;
Transformation and upgrading of traditional industries: Guangdong has promoted the “smart transformation and digital transformation” of 10,000 industrial enterprises, and Zhejiang has explored “robot substitution”;
Future industry breakthroughs: Beijing and Guangdong have built future industry pilot zones, and Jiangsu has piloted the “artificial intelligence +” action.
Among these two, I think “grasping industrial innovation” is the direction that local governments are more willing to focus on for three reasons:
Emerging industry positioning war: Local governments are afraid of missing the key window period, which leads to lagging behind in regional competition;
Performance evaluation system: Indicators such as manufacturing investment amount and increment of specialized and new enterprises account for more than 40% of the evaluation weight;
Rational choice after fiscal accounting: Industrial land transfer has gradually become a new source of revenue, and local governments are more inclined to attract high value-added medium and high-end manufacturing industries.
Summary: Grasp the signal of certainty
On the whole, in 2025, all provinces will still focus on “new investment + new industry” for layout, which is the most certain signal and the place with the most resources. If you are in the field of emerging industries, you can boldly plan for the long term; if you are engaged in the field of new consumption, you need to respond pragmatically and seize the current policy dividends.
Media Comments and Summary
The major media generally believe that the current Chinese economy is at a critical stage of transformation. The local development goals reflect both the determination to stabilize growth and the urgent need for high-quality development. Experts pointed out that the next few years will be an important window period for the rise of emerging industries. Whoever can take the lead in seizing the commanding heights will have an advantage in regional competition. At the same time, the recovery of the consumer sector still needs time. Enterprises and individuals should adjust their strategies flexibly based on their own conditions, seize policy dividends, and meet new opportunities and challenges.
1. Economically large provinces take the lead: Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and other provinces maintain GDP targets of more than 5%, and support the national market by stabilizing investment and promoting innovation.
2. Regional coordination and differentiation: The west is catching up with policy dividends, the east is exploring high-quality development, and the northeast needs to solve the transformation problem.
3. Innovation and risk coexist: The layout of new quality productivity is hot, but fiscal tight balance and external uncertainties (such as foreign trade pressure) are still concerns.
