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GuShiio.com Dow Lion Intelligence Editor: Dow Lion
A-share hot news
Index surged and then fell back: The Shanghai Composite Index surged to 3366 points in the morning, setting a new high in this round of rebound, but then fell back quickly, showing that the 3369-point weekly pressure level had a significant suppressive effect.
GEM Index performed strongly: The intraday increase of the GEM Index once exceeded 1.5%, but affected by the differentiation of technology stocks, the increase narrowed to 0.8% before noon, and there was obvious resistance near 2245 points.
Technology main line differentiation: Semiconductor and robot concepts were strong in the morning, but DeepSeek concept stocks fell sharply due to excessive speculation in the early stage, dragging down the AI sub-sector.
Defensive sectors strengthened: Banks and precious metals (gold) sectors rose against the trend, reflecting the rising demand for risk aversion; pharmaceutical and medical, military and other sectors moved abnormally during the session, but the sustainability was weak.
Short-term themes recede: Film and television theaters, consumer electronics and other sectors were sold off due to performance uncertainty, and market sentiment shifted from speculation to rationality.
Divergence in foreign investment trends: Northbound funds had a small net outflow, while ETF funds withdrew faster, individual investors became the main buying force, and changes in the capital structure intensified volatility.
Influence of external events: US inflation exceeded expectations and the escalation of technology controls on China suppressed market risk appetite.
Favorable policy support: The National Development and Reform Commission promoted the solution of private enterprise accounts receivable problems, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s “five empowerment” policies may boost confidence in small and medium-sized growth stocks.
Market volume shrinks: Market volume shrinks slightly compared with yesterday, with a turnover of about 1.1 trillion yuan in the morning, and capital activity is concentrated in some sectors.
Afternoon trend prediction: In the afternoon, we need to pay attention to the key technical positions and volume. If the Shanghai Composite Index cannot stand firm at the support of 3350 points, it may fall further; if it breaks through the pressure of 3366 points with large volume, it is expected to test the range of 3380-3400 points.
Hong Kong stock hot news
Robot surge: RoboSense continued to expand its gains in the early trading, with its share price rising 11.81% to HK$47.80, with a turnover of HK$1.06 billion.
AI medical sector moves: The AI medical sector moves abnormally during the trading session, but the sustainability is weak, and investors need to remain cautious.
Southbound funds net buy: Southbound funds net buy HK$10.324 billion, of which Alibaba-W, Kuaishou-W, and Huahong Semiconductor received net buys of approximately HK$2.83 billion, HK$813 million, and HK$735 million, respectively.
Market sentiment is high: As DeepSeek promotes the revaluation of China’s technology assets, Hong Kong stocks lead the global equity market and market sentiment is high.
Short-term market turmoil: In the short term, the “turbulent market” of Hong Kong stocks will continue, dominated by sentiment expansion and incremental liquidity.
Limited expansion of mid-term valuation: In the medium term, the valuation expansion space of Hong Kong stocks is limited, and the verification of earnings recovery is the key.
Policy expectation support: Domestic policy support, such as the National Development and Reform Commission’s promotion of solving the account problems of private enterprises and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s “five empowerment” policies may boost confidence in small and medium-sized growth stocks.
Influence of external events: The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the changes in the Fed’s expectations of interest rate hikes may affect the flow of foreign capital. It is necessary to pay attention to the transmission effect of precious metals (gold) and exchange rate fluctuations on Hong Kong stocks.
Market volume changes: The market volume has changed slightly compared with yesterday, and the activity of funds is concentrated in some sectors.
Obvious sector rotation: Obvious sector rotation, technology stocks, AI medical sectors and other sectors have performed outstandingly, but sustainability needs further observation.
Hot news on US stocks
European stocks rose generally: European stocks rose generally, and the German stock market hit a new high, as if it was “joining in the fun” for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, making the global stock market look prosperous.
US inflation exceeded expectations: US inflation data exceeded expectations, suppressing the risk appetite of the global market.
Upgraded technology control on China: The United States has upgraded its technology control on China, such as TSMC’s suspension of supply of processes below 16nm, which has an impact on related technology stocks.
Cautious market sentiment: Market sentiment is cautious, and investors remain vigilant about the global economic outlook and policy changes.
Changes in policy expectations: The market’s adjustment of expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cuts affects global market trends.
Changes in capital flows: Capital flows have changed significantly, with some funds flowing from US stocks to other markets.
Influence of external events: External events such as the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and changes in the Fed’s expectations for rate hikes have affected market sentiment.
Changes in market volume: Market volume has changed slightly compared to yesterday, and capital activity is concentrated in some sectors.
Differentiation of sector performance: Sector performance has differentiated, with technology stocks and energy stocks performing outstandingly, but sustainability needs further observation.
Views and opinions on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks
A-shares: Today, the A-share market showed a pattern of rising and falling, and intensified sector differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3,366 points in the morning, but then fell back quickly, showing that the 3,369-point weekly pressure level had a significant suppressive effect. The ChiNext Index performed relatively strongly, but due to the differentiation of technology stocks, the gains narrowed in the morning. The main line of science and technology is clearly differentiated. Semiconductor and robot concepts are strong in the early trading, but DeepSeek concept stocks have fallen sharply due to excessive speculation in the early stage. Defensive sectors such as banks and precious metals (gold) rose against the trend, reflecting the rising demand for risk aversion. Short-term themes such as film and television theaters and consumer electronics were sold off due to performance uncertainty, and market sentiment shifted from speculation to rationality. Foreign capital trends diverged, with a small net outflow of northbound funds, while ETF funds withdrew at an accelerated pace, and individual investors became the main buying force. The market volume shrank slightly compared with yesterday, and the activity of funds was concentrated in some sectors. Overall, the A-share market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors need to pay attention to the key technical positions and volume changes, as well as the impact of policies and external events.
Hong Kong stocks: Today, the Hong Kong stock market performed relatively strongly. RoboSense continued to expand its gains in the early trading, and the AI medical sector moved abnormally during the session. Southbound funds bought a net of HK$10.324 billion, indicating that funds continued to flow in. As DeepSeek promoted the revaluation of China’s technology assets, Hong Kong stocks led the global equity market and market sentiment was high. In the short term, the “agitation market” of Hong Kong stocks will continue, dominated by sentiment expansion and incremental liquidity. In the medium term, the valuation expansion space of Hong Kong stocks is limited, and the verification of earnings recovery is the key. Domestic policy support, such as the National Development and Reform Commission’s promotion of solving the account problems of private enterprises and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s “five empowerment” policies, may boost the confidence of small and medium-sized growth stocks. External events such as the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and changes in the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations may affect the flow of foreign capital, and attention should be paid to the transmission effect of precious metals (gold) and exchange rate fluctuations on Hong Kong stocks. Overall, the Hong Kong stock market may continue to perform strongly in the short term, but investors need to remain cautious and pay attention to changes in policies and external events.
Tomorrow’s market prediction
A shares: Tomorrow, the A-share market may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to key technical positions and volume changes. If the Shanghai Composite Index fails to hold the support of 3350 points, it may further drop to around 3275 points (20-day moving average); if it breaks through the pressure of 3366 points with large volume, it is expected to test the range of 3380-3400 points. The ChiNext Index needs to observe whether it can break through 2245 points. If the volume is insufficient (single-day trading volume is less than 1.5 trillion yuan), it may fall back to the 2200 point mark. Technology stocks such as semiconductors and solid-state batteries may become the direction of capital return. If the DeepSeek concept stops falling, the AI computing power sector may rebound technically. Defensive sectors such as banks and gold may continue to support the index, but we need to be wary of the risk of high-priced stocks falling.
Hong Kong stocks: The Hong Kong stock market may continue to perform strongly tomorrow, but investors need to remain cautious. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in policies and external events, such as domestic policy support, progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and changes in the Fed’s expectations for rate hikes. The flow of southbound funds and changes in market volume are also important reference indicators. Overall, the Hong Kong stock market may continue to perform strongly in the short term, but investors need to pay attention to changes in policies and external events and maintain rational investment.
