GuShiio.com In 2025, the global financial market has ushered in new changes. Trump returned to the White House and continued his consistent policy of economic nationalism, with policies such as increasing tariffs, reshaping supply chains, and strengthening dollar hegemony.
Introduction: The new order of cryptocurrency markets in the Trump era
In 2025, the global financial market has ushered in new changes. Trump returned to the White House and continued his consistent policy of economic nationalism, with policies such as increasing tariffs, reshaping supply chains, and strengthening dollar hegemony. At the same time, as the U.S. fiscal deficit continues to expand, the global trend of “de-dollarization” intensifies, and the global rise of the crypto asset market, the Trump administration’s attitude towards cryptocurrencies is undergoing significant changes. In this context, the concept of strategic reserve of cryptographic assets has gradually surfaced and has become the focus of market attention. This report will conduct an in-depth study of the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policies on global financial markets, and how the crypto asset strategic reserve program it may promote affects the market performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. In addition, we will also analyze possible changes in regulatory policies, institutional investors ‘asset allocation strategy adjustments, and the future development direction of the overall crypto market.
1. Trump’s economic policies and the macro background of the crypto market
1.1 Tariff policy: The reshaping of the global economic order and the impact of capital markets
Trump’s economic policy has always been centered on “America First”. This strategy has not only affected the domestic economic landscape of the United States, but also profoundly changed the operating model of the global capital market and financial system. The Trump administration has implemented a series of major economic policies between 2017 and 2021, including large-scale tax cuts, tough trade wars, pressure on the Federal Reserve, and regulation of dollar liquidity. These policies have promoted U.S. economic growth in the short term, but have also led to long-term rising fiscal deficits and instability in the international economy. After Trump is re-elected in 2025, the market generally expects his government to continue or even strengthen past economic policies, especially in terms of tariff policies, dollar strategy, fiscal stimulus, regulatory environment and global capital flows, which will have a profound impact on the crypto market.
Against the background of the increasingly decentralized global economic system, the crypto market has gradually become an important part of the international financial system. Mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are not only regarded as investment targets, but are also regarded by some countries and institutions as assets to hedge against U.S. dollar risks. The use of stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) in international trade settlement is also increasing, promoting the process of digitalization of the US dollar. The Trump administration’s economic policies will have a profound impact on these trends. Its tariff policy may accelerate the allocation of global funds to crypto assets such as Bitcoin. Dollar liquidity management will affect the supply of funds in the crypto market. U.S. regulatory policies will determine the legitimacy and development space of the crypto market, and the strategic reserve plan for crypto assets that Trump may promote is more likely to trigger changes in the global market.
One of the Trump administration’s core economic policies is its highly aggressive trade policy. During 2018-2019, the outbreak of the US-China trade war led to the restructuring of global supply chains and major changes in capital flows. Faced with the new economic situation in 2025, Trump is likely to restart the trade war, impose tariffs on China, the European Union, Japan and other economies, and try to re-establish U.S. manufacturing competitiveness through external pressure. The direct consequence of this policy will be increased uncertainty in international capital markets, global investors seeking safe-haven assets, and decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may become new safe-haven tools in this environment. In fact, during the height of the trade war in 2019, the price of bitcoin soared from US$3,000 to US$13,000. The market generally believed that capital would flow some funds into the crypto market while avoiding traditional market risks. The escalation of the trade war in 2025 may once again drive similar capital flow trends, especially in the context of the damage to the U.S. dollar credit system, and Bitcoin may become even more attractive.
In addition to the impact of the trade war on global capital markets, the Trump administration’s fiscal policies are also an important factor affecting the crypto market. Trump implemented massive tax cuts in 2017, reducing corporate tax rates and increasing the government’s fiscal deficit. In 2025, Trump may take similar measures to stimulate U.S. economic growth, including further corporate tax breaks, large-scale infrastructure investment and increased military spending. These policies may boost the U.S. economy in the short term, but they will also exacerbate the fiscal deficit and put pressure on the U.S. dollar credit system. An increase in fiscal deficits usually means that the government needs to use debt issuance or monetary easing to fill the funding gap. If the market expects the Fed to resume quantitative easing (QE) in the future, market liquidity will increase, which is often good for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. In fact, during the 2020-2021 period, the ultra-loose monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve was one of the important drivers of the Bitcoin bull market. Therefore, if the Trump administration promotes a new round of fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve is forced to cooperate with easing monetary policy to a certain extent, the market may usher in a new round of rising cycles of crypto assets.
1.2 The cyclical correlation between US dollar liquidity and the crypto market
As a global reserve currency, the status of the US dollar may change under the policies of the Trump administration. During his first term, Trump repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with a strong dollar, believing that the overvaluation of the dollar damaged the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing. In 2025, the Trump administration may take measures to devalue the dollar to boost exports and reduce the trade deficit. If the trend of dollar depreciation is established, global investors may seek other assets to hedge against the risk of dollar depreciation, and bitcoin, gold and other safe-haven assets may become new directions for capital inflows. Especially on a global scale, some countries have begun to explore the process of de-dollarization. For example, Russia and China have reduced their dependence on the US dollar in international trade, while Middle Eastern countries are also trying to use RMB or other currencies for oil settlement. If the Trump administration’s policies accelerate the process of de-dollarization, global capital’s demand for decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may rise further, pushing the crypto market into a new stage of development.
Domestic crypto regulatory policies in the United States may undergo major changes in the Trump era. During his first term, Trump’s attitude towards crypto assets was relatively vague. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has repeatedly expressed his hope to strengthen supervision of the crypto market and prevent assets such as Bitcoin from being used for illegal transactions. However, during the 2024 campaign, Trump and his allies began to show a more positive attitude towards crypto assets, arguing that Bitcoin and blockchain technology could bring new financial innovation and economic growth opportunities to the United States. In 2025, the Trump administration may adjust the U.S. crypto regulatory framework, such as reducing the tax burden on crypto assets, relaxing legal restrictions on crypto transactions and investments, and supporting the further development of financial products such as Bitcoin ETFs. If these policies are implemented, they will bring huge growth opportunities to the U.S. crypto market, and will also have a demonstration effect on the global market, prompting other countries to adjust their attitudes towards the crypto market.
It is worth noting that the Trump administration may promote the establishment of a “Cryptocurrency Asset Strategic Reserve Plan” to include Bitcoin and other cryptoassets in the national-level reserve system. This policy may be proposed based on multiple factors, including countering U.S. dollar credit risk, seizing a dominant position in the global crypto market, and ensuring the United States ‘leading edge in the field of digital assets in international competition. If the U.S. government decides to hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, Bitcoin will have unprecedented market acceptance and may become an important part of the global financial system. The impact of this policy will far exceed the admission of any ETF or institutional investment. It means formal recognition of Bitcoin at the level of sovereign countries and may trigger follow-up from other countries around the world.
1.3 Institutional investors ‘reconfiguration of the crypto market
In the past few years, institutional investors have gradually increased acceptance of crypto assets. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of large financial institutions, crypto assets have gradually become part of traditional investment portfolios. If the Trump administration promotes strategic reserves of crypto assets and relaxes restrictions on institutional investors holding crypto assets, the market structure will undergo major changes. In the long run, this may allow mainstream assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum to enter more national and institutional portfolios, driving further market maturity.
Overall, the Trump administration’s economic policies will have a profound impact on the crypto market. A trade war may accelerate the flow of capital to crypto assets, fiscal deficits and the depreciation of the dollar may push up demand for bitcoin, and adjustments to the regulatory environment may further promote the development of the U.S. crypto market. If the Trump administration finally promotes a strategic reserve plan for crypto assets, Bitcoin may usher in historic institutional recognition and completely change the landscape of the global financial system. In this process, the market needs to pay close attention to the specific policy direction of the Trump administration and the response of global capital markets to these policies to seize the future development opportunities of the crypto market.
2. Strategic Reserve of Cryptographic Assets: Policy Background and Potential Impact
2.1 Policy background for the U.S. government to promote strategic reserves of crypto assets
After the Trump administration comes to power again in 2025, the core of its economic policies will still revolve around “America First”, which not only means a re-examination of the US dollar’s global reserve currency status, but may also mean that the government is beginning to consider diversifying some countries ‘reserves. To hedge the credit risk of the US dollar. For a long time, the US dollar has served as the world’s main reserve currency, giving the United States unparalleled influence in the global financial system. However, in recent years, with the rise of U.S. debt levels, the expansion of fiscal deficits, the adjustment of interest rate policies, and questions from countries about the dominance of the U.S. dollar, the reserve status of the U.S. dollar is being challenged.
On the one hand, the U.S. government’s fiscal deficit has become the focus of global market attention. Since 2020, the level of U.S. government debt has continued to soar. As of the end of 2024, U.S. Treasury bonds have exceeded US$34 trillion and are still growing rapidly. This weakened market confidence in the long-term value of the dollar and prompted countries to explore reserve assets other than the dollar. After the Trump administration takes office, in order to further promote fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment, the U.S. fiscal deficit problem may further deteriorate. If the market expects an increased risk of dollar depreciation, global central banks may accelerate the adjustment of their reserve asset allocation, and decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may become an alternative to the dollar.
On the other hand, the acceleration of the de-dollarization process has also made the U.S. government need to rethink how to maintain its financial hegemony. In recent years, many countries around the world have reduced their dependence on the US dollar in international trade settlement. For example, trade between Russia and China is gradually shifting to local currency settlement. United Arab Emirates, India and other countries are also exploring the use of RMB or other currencies for oil trade settlement. This trend has weakened the dollar’s global influence and made it necessary for the U.S. government to take new measures to ensure its dominance in the global financial system. If the Trump administration views the strategic reserve of crypto assets as a new strategic global financial tool, then Bitcoin may be formally included in the U.S. official reserve system as a potential weapon to hedge against the de-dollarization of the global financial system.
In addition, the Trump administration’s attitude towards the cryptocurrency market is gradually changing. Although Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin in 2019, saying it was “based on air and has no real value,” his stance significantly changed during the 2024 campaign. On the one hand, Trump’s team has gradually realized the potential of crypto assets in the future financial system and is trying to win support from the crypto industry; on the other hand, U.S. institutional investors have significantly increased their holdings of Bitcoin in the past few years. For example, institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity have launched Bitcoin spot ETFs and attracted billions of dollars in capital inflows. In this context, the U.S. government may realize that Bitcoin is no longer a marginalized asset class, but is becoming an important part of the global financial system. If the U.S. government wants to dominate this market, then establishing a “strategic reserve of crypto assets” will be a strategic choice in line with its national interest.
2.2 The potential impact of strategic reserves of crypto assets
First, this policy may greatly change the market’s perception of the value of Bitcoin and push Bitcoin prices into a new valuation system. The current market’s main pricing logic for Bitcoin is still based on its scarcity (total supply of 21 million coins), inflation hedging properties and its role in the digital economy. However, if the U.S. government officially includes Bitcoin in national reserves, this means that Bitcoin will transform from an “alternative asset” to a “national reserve asset”, and its market perception will undergo a fundamental change. Gold has been an important part of global central bank reserves for decades, and if Bitcoin is included in the same system, its market valuation could grow exponentially. The current size of the global gold market is about US$13 trillion, while the total market value of the Bitcoin market is only about US$1 trillion. If Bitcoin is given a reserve function similar to gold, its market value may reach at least 30-50% of the gold market, or more than US$4 -6 trillion, and the corresponding Bitcoin price may be more than US$200,000. This means that the U.S. government’s policy decisions will directly affect the long-term value of Bitcoin and may trigger a new bull market.
Secondly, the implementation of this policy will have a subtle impact on the US dollar’s global reserve currency status. Traditionally, the reason why the US dollar has become the world’s major reserve currency has mainly relied on the strength of the US economy, the global coverage of US dollar liquidity, and the stability of dollar-denominated assets (such as US bonds). However, if the U.S. government starts to include bitcoin in reserves, it may send a signal to the market that the U.S. government itself is considering the credit risk of the U.S. dollar and trying to hedge through bitcoin. This may exacerbate market concerns about the long-term stability of the dollar and prompt other countries to start adjusting their reserve structures, pushing more central banks to hold bitcoin. If this trend takes shape, it will likely weaken the global dominance of the US dollar and accelerate the multipolarization of the global financial system.
At the same time, the U.S. government’s holding of Bitcoin may also have an impact on the global geopolitical landscape. Currently, some countries are already trying to incorporate Bitcoin into national financial strategies. For example, El Salvador became the first country in the world to use Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021 and gradually increased its national Bitcoin reserves. In addition, Russia, Iran and other countries are also exploring the use of Bitcoin for international trade settlement to circumvent Western financial sanctions. If the U.S. government takes the lead in including Bitcoin in the national reserve system, other countries may have to adjust accordingly to avoid being passive in future competition in the global financial system. This may lead to a global “national-level bitcoin reserve race”, which in turn affects the global financial landscape.
Finally, this policy may also have a ripple effect on the domestic crypto market regulatory environment in the United States. At present, the regulation of the crypto market in the United States is still relatively uncertain, and the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) have differences on the issue of the regulatory authority of crypto assets. However, if the U.S. government decides to include Bitcoin in national reserves, this means that Bitcoin’s legal status may be formally established and promote further clarity in the relevant regulatory framework. This may bring a clearer compliance path to the U.S. crypto market, push more institutional funds into the market, and further accelerate the mainstreaming of Bitcoin.
To sum up, the U.S. government’s implementation of the “strategic reserve of cryptoassets” is not only a major impact on the global financial system, but may also completely change the market positioning of Bitcoin and affect the direction of global capital flows. The implementation of this policy may trigger huge fluctuations in the market in the short term, but in the long run, it may become a milestone in the history of Bitcoin’s development and push the global financial system into a new era.
3. Future market outlook and investment strategy
3.1 Long-term trends and future prospects of the crypto market
The development path of the encryption market can be analyzed from multiple perspectives such as macroeconomic trends, policy environment, changes in market structure, and technological progress. The Trump administration’s policies may serve as a catalyst for a new bull market in markets, but their long-term impact will depend on a number of variables, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the evolution of the global de-dollarization process, the degree of participation of institutional investors, and emerging markets ‘policy orientation.
First, changes in the global financial environment will be a key factor affecting the long-term trend of the crypto market. The current global economy is facing a series of challenges such as de-globalization, inflationary pressures, interest rate uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts. These factors may prompt more investors to regard Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. Historical experience shows that in times of rising global uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold are often favored by the market, and Bitcoin is gradually having similar safe-haven functions. If the U.S. government formally recognizes Bitcoin’s reserve asset status, Bitcoin will further gain market trust and may replace part of gold’s market share.
Second, the degree of participation of institutional investors will become an important variable in determining the future market size of Bitcoin. In recent years, with the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, traditional financial institutions have begun to enter the crypto market on a large scale. For example, Bitcoin ETF products from giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity have attracted billions of dollars in capital inflows, and if the U.S. government establishes a “strategic reserve of cryptoassets,” more sovereign funds, pension funds and central banks may Accelerate the pace of Bitcoin allocation. This will further promote Bitcoin’s market maturity and gradually transform it from a highly volatile asset to a stable store of value.
In addition, the acceleration of the global de-dollarization process will also have a profound impact on the crypto market. At present, economies including China, Russia, Iran, India and other countries are actively exploring the path of de-dollarization and seeking to reduce dependence on the US dollar. If Bitcoin becomes part of the U.S. government’s reserve assets, then other countries around the world may have to reassess their attitude towards Bitcoin. Some countries may follow suit and increase Bitcoin’s share of foreign exchange reserves, while others may choose to restrict Bitcoin transactions to maintain the stability of their currencies. This policy game will directly affect Bitcoin’s global liquidity and may create arbitrage opportunities in certain markets.
3.2 Investment Strategy and Market Opportunity Analysis
Against the background of profound changes in the market structure, investors need to adjust their strategies to adapt to the new market environment. Both individual investors and institutional investors need to consider how to optimize asset allocation in the new financial landscape and find the most potential investment opportunities.
First, the investment logic of Bitcoin will change. In the past, Bitcoin was mainly seen as a high-risk, high-return speculative asset, but in the future, it may be seen more as a “digital gold” or a “central bank reserve asset.” This means that the price volatility of Bitcoin may gradually decrease, and investors who have held Bitcoin for a long time will enjoy stable value growth. For investors, adopting a “long-term hold”(HODL) strategy may be the best way to respond to market changes, especially if government policies support the long-term value of Bitcoin will be greater protected.
Second, structural arbitrage opportunities in the market may increase. As governments diverge their policies towards Bitcoin, different regulatory environments may emerge in the market, which will lead to price differences between different markets. For example, if some countries strictly restrict bitcoin transactions and the U.S. government actively promotes bitcoin reserve programs, bitcoin prices in global markets may deviate significantly, and smart investors can use these differences to conduct cross-market arbitrage transactions.
In addition, the role of the derivatives market will be further enhanced. Currently, the market for derivatives such as Bitcoin futures and options is relatively mature. With the entry of institutional investors, the market’s demand for risk management for Bitcoin will further increase. In the future, we may see more complex financial instruments introduced into the crypto market, such as bitcoin-based bonds, structured products, etc. For professional investors, using these tools for risk hedging and return optimization will be an important trend in the future market.
On the other hand, in addition to Bitcoin, market opportunities for other crypto assets are also worthy of attention. Although Bitcoin may become a major national reserve asset, the ecosystem of smart contract platforms such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) is still growing rapidly. If government and institutional funds begin to enter the crypto market on a large scale, these assets may also benefit. Especially in the fields of decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenized assets (RWA), new market opportunities may emerge in the future. For example, some countries may explore blockchain-based treasury bond issuance or use smart contract technology to optimize financial transaction processes. These trends may create new investment opportunities for investors.
3.3 Risk factors and coping strategies
Although the Trump administration’s policies may bring long-term benefits to the crypto market, investors still need to pay attention to potential risk factors and formulate corresponding coping strategies.
First of all, policy uncertainty remains one of the biggest risks in the market. Although the Trump administration may support a strategic reserve of crypto assets, the implementation of this policy still depends on many factors, including congressional approval, the attitude of the Federal Reserve, the cooperation of the Treasury Department, and the reactions of other countries around the world. If policy advancement is blocked, the market may experience large fluctuations. Therefore, investors need to pay close attention to policy dynamics and adjust investment strategies based on policy changes.
Secondly, market liquidity risk is also an important consideration. Although the Bitcoin market is much more mature than in the past, its liquidity is still relatively low compared to traditional financial markets. If the government or large institution suddenly adjusts its Bitcoin position, the market may experience sharp fluctuations. Therefore, investors should avoid excessive leveraged trading and adopt a strategy of buying or selling in batches when the market is volatile to reduce the risk of market shocks.
In addition, geopolitical factors may also have an impact on the crypto market. As competition among countries around the world intensifies, some countries may take steps to curb the use of Bitcoin. For example, China has strengthened its regulation of cryptocurrencies many times in the past few years, and if the U.S. government promotes the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Program, other countries may take corresponding countermeasures. Investors need to consider this possibility and ensure portfolio diversification to reduce the risks posed by specific policy changes.
Finally, technical risk remains a major challenge for the crypto market. Although the Bitcoin network itself is highly secure, the entire encryption industry still faces risks such as smart contract vulnerabilities, exchange security issues, and hacking attacks. Investors need to choose a trading platform with higher security and take appropriate security measures, such as using cold wallets to store assets and diversifying investments among different asset classes to reduce potential technical risks.
IV. Conclusion
Against the background of major changes in the global financial system, whether the U.S. government will formally include Bitcoin and other cryptoassets into the national strategic reserve has become the focus of market attention. As the Trump administration changes its attitude towards crypto assets and the acceleration of the global de-dollarization process, the possibility of establishing a “strategic reserve of crypto assets” is gradually increasing. If implemented, this policy will be one of the most disruptive changes in the global financial system in a century. It may have a profound impact on the reserve status of the US dollar, the financial game between countries, market liquidity, the pattern of sovereign currency competition, and the value perception of Bitcoin. Therefore, we need to explore in depth the Trump administration’s potential motivations for promoting this policy, policy background, global macro environment, and possible broad impact on the market.
Against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s promotion of the concept of a “strategic reserve of crypto assets,” global financial markets are undergoing a profound structural change. Bitcoin and other crypto assets are transforming from speculative investments to possible national-level reserve assets and are gradually establishing their central position in the global financial system. This trend will not only affect the crypto market itself, but will also have a profound impact on the U.S. dollar’s global reserve currency status, traditional financial markets, sovereign monetary system, and institutional and individual investment strategies. The crypto market is at a critical stage where policy dividends and market challenges coexist. If the U.S. government officially includes crypto assets in its strategic reserves, core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum will usher in unprecedented development opportunities.
We advise investors to pay close attention to policy changes and look for the best investment opportunities amid market fluctuations. The “strategic reserve of crypto assets” proposed by the Trump administration may become a key node in the transformation of the global financial system and push the Bitcoin market into a new stage of development. For investors, this policy may bring unprecedented market opportunities, but it is also accompanied by greater uncertainty. In the future market environment, long-term holding of Bitcoin, paying attention to policy dynamics, taking advantage of market arbitrage opportunities, optimizing portfolio structure, and managing market risks will be the keys to successful investment. As the global financial system evolves, crypto assets will become an increasingly important asset class, and investors who can accurately grasp trends will benefit the most from this change.
