GuShiio.com ① The closing prices of 14 gold-themed ETFs hit a new high today, and the net worth of 10 ETFs reached a new high last Friday;
② There are also many gold-themed ETFs with record sizes. The latest scale of the largest one in China has exceeded 31 billion yuan;
③ The international gold price is approaching US$3000, but Shanghai gold futures positions and gold-themed ETF fund shares have recently declined.
Cailian News, February 10 (Reporter Zhou Xiaoya)When the international gold price broke through the US$2890 and US$2900 barriers one after another, there were also gold-themed ETFs in China that were also lifted to a record high by their net value.
As of the close of February 10, 20 domestic gold-themed ETFs all closed up. The Shanghai gold ETF closed up 1.58% at most, and the gold stock ETF also rose 1.57%.
After repeatedly hitting new highs, the market has gradually become more controversial about when the gold price will press the pause button. The positions of Shanghai gold futures and the total shares of gold-themed ETFs have also decreased in recent days. What does this mean?
The net value of gold ETF reaches a new high
In today’s intraday session, nine gold-themed ETFs once again hit a new high in transaction prices since listing. By the close of trading, the number of gold-themed ETFs that had set the highest closing price record since listing had increased to 14, accounting for 70% of the total.
In fact, as the international gold price continues to rise, the trading price of gold-themed ETFs reaches a new high is expected by the market.
Judging from the latest disclosure of net worth, there are not a few gold-themed ETFs with net worth reaching a new high as of last Friday. Wind data shows that the seven gold ETFs linked to the SGE Gold 9999 Index and the three products in the Shanghai Gold ETF linked to the Shanghai Gold Index all hit record highs in product net value last Friday.
At the same time, highest-scale gold-themed ETFs have also emerged in the market. As the largest gold-themed ETF, Hua ‘an Gold ETF has reached a new high of 31.173 billion yuan as of last Friday, an increase of 2.497 billion yuan this year alone.
The Cathay Pacific Gold ETF also hit a new high of 8.24 billion yuan last Friday. The sizes of China Gold ETF, Yongying CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, and Fuguo Shanghai Gold ETF also reached their peak levels since their listings last Friday.
Shares and positions declined
Looking back at this round of gold trend, since mid-to-late December last year, international gold prices have stepped out of a new round of gains, and the cumulative increase has exceeded 10% so far. The main contract of Shanghai gold futures also rose continuously from 613 yuan during the period to close at 679.08 yuan during the day today, and the single-day increase also reached 1.5%.
“From a relatively long cycle perspective, the driving factors for this round of gold price rise are increased demand for safe-haven and central bank gold purchases to support demand.” Fan Rui, head of Guoyuan Futures Nonferrous Metals, analyzed that the price of gold rose again today, mainly related to the approval of insurance funds to invest in gold.
Hua ‘an Fund also mentioned that the current investment structure of my country’s insurance companies is dominated by bonds. Including gold investment may help alleviate the pressure of “asset shortage” in a low interest rate environment and provide new investment opportunities for increasing investment income. Gold and equity The low correlation between bond assets also helps to diversify portfolio investment risks.
However, judging from the changes in fund shares and futures positions, there have been signs of decline in recent days. Shanghai gold futures ‘positions increased by more than 9000 lots month-on-month today, but they reduced their positions by nearly 6000 lots last Friday.
Hua ‘an Gold ETF also received net subscriptions last week as a whole, but there was a small net redemption last Friday.
“Shanghai gold futures positions have certain regularity. Looking back at the changes in Shanghai gold futures positions in the past four years, it can be clearly found that after the domestic Spring Festival holiday, Shanghai gold futures positions have experienced a round of growth process, and this position growth process has good sustainability. The number of positions in 2023 has the largest growth, followed by 2024.” In Fan Rui’s view, the Spring Festival has passed, and this seasonal pattern is expected to be reflected again.
However, she also reminded that although positions were withdrawn at the end of last year, they were still at a high level, Shanghai gold futures are about to experience a seasonal recovery in positions again, but the growth space for positions may be relatively limited compared with previous years.
How long will the rally last?
Looking forward to the later stage, Fan Rui believes that the approval of insurance funds to invest in gold will push up demand for gold, and the uncertainty of the foreign trade market will still require hedging, so there is still room for gold to rise in the short term. “But the entry of insurance funds is a relatively long-term process, and risk aversion is chasing gold relatively quickly. Therefore, we need to remind you of the early overdraft of good emotions.”
Hua ‘an Fund said that gold is still a major asset category worthy of attention in 2025.
First, the pricing of gold by real interest rates is expected to return, including the slowdown in global economic growth and the medium-and long-term re-inflation problem faced by the United States. Second, in the context of anti-globalization, the central bank is expected to continue the pace of gold purchase. The core reason is to deal with inflation and the financial crisis.
According to central bank data, at the end of January, China’s central bank held 73.45 million ounces of gold reserves, which has been purchasing gold for three consecutive months. They analyzed that as of December 2024, the proportion of gold in my country’s central bank’s international reserve assets was 5.5%, which was significantly lower than the world average of about 15%. There is still huge room for improvement in my country’s central bank’s gold reserves.
Third, the low correlation of gold in major asset categories, combined with the current low interest rate environment, highlights important allocation value. Fourth, the essence of gold’s long-term growth is still monetary. It confronts the credit of the US dollar. The current debt pressure and high interest rate environment in the United States are exacerbating credit risks.
