Will the A-share market maintain a volatile pattern before the two sessions? What are the main investment lines? Top ten brokerage strategies are here

The latest strategic views of the top ten securities firms + summary and sorting out the optimistic sectors.

Cailian News, February 16 (Editor’s Square)The latest strategic views of the top ten securities firms have been newly released, as follows:

CITIC Securities: Compensated growth in core assets is expected to become a follow-up focus

It is still in the spring agitation window. It is expected that external disturbances will be limited before April, domestic economic and policy expectations will improve to a certain extent, and the market’s marginal capital structure is changing. Many factors indicate that the market style is expected to tilt towards the core assets of A-shares. First of all, from a macro perspective, it is expected that friction between China and the United States in the fields of science and technology, trade, and finance will be limited before April, the domestic economy will recover steadily, policy expectations will gradually be realized, and it will still be in the spring agitation window. Secondly, from the perspective of market funds, DeepSeek has changed the narrative of China’s assets. At the same time, the continued rise in Hong Kong stocks has triggered a rise in expectations of foreign capital return. While domestic active capital positions have reached a high level, institutions with extreme position holding styles also need to rebalance. Finally, judging from the popularity and location of the sector, the sentiment indicators of the technology and theme-related sectors are at high levels. After Hong Kong stocks quickly repaired their valuation, the core assets of A-shares have become a phased depression.

In terms of configuration, during the process of making up for core assets, lithium batteries and innovative drugs can focus on.

CITIC Construction Investment: There is still room for this round of technology market interpretation

Currently, domestic demand has started smoothly, external demand disturbances are limited, stable growth orientation is clear, real estate is gradually out of the freezing point of demand, and policies to promote incremental funds to enter the market, the market will remain volatile and upward in the medium term. The recent increase in the technology sector has been considerable, and short-term trading indicators in some thematic directions are overheating. However, compared with the fundamental logic of 23 years, there is still room for deduction of this round of technology market. The valuation of a number of representative companies, including Hong Kong stock technology giants, is also reasonable to be significantly higher than the past two years. Specific deductions predict that there may be certain rotation within the technology main line. In addition, in addition to the AI+ main line, structural auxiliary lines such as domestic policy expectations and overseas re-inflation expectations are likely to show.

Focus on industries: Internet, electronics, computers, media, nonferrous metals; theme focus: central state-owned enterprise reform and mergers and acquisitions, new consumption, supply-side policies (steel/chemical industry, etc.).

GF Securities: The market is still in the “calendar window” for small-cap stocks after the holiday. The main line of TMT is clear

We are optimistic that the market will start to stir up after the Spring Festival, focusing on the technology fields catalyzed by the industry during the Spring Festival, and the market value style is more towards the small and medium-sized sectors. The traditional window of excitement from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions has begun this year. In terms of time/rhythm, the current technology market is expected to last until the two sessions, but the money-making effect will be more focused than before. In terms of subsequent participation ideas, we can follow the two clues of “low-level growth branch” and “performance is expected to be released in 25 years.”

In low-level growth, in addition to low-altitude economy, semiconductor equipment, and photovoltaics that have responded after the Spring Festival, we can also focus on military industry, cultural sailing, satellites, medical equipment, AI education, etc. Looking forward to 25 years, TMT is expected to see AI orders/sales and other achievements realized mainly in end-side hardware, robots/smart driving, and inference-side computing power.

Minsheng Securities: The repair of the pro-cyclical sector is worth looking forward to

In the past, the focus of global markets has always focused on the revaluation of China assets brought by Deepseek. At present, there has been a proliferation of AI to more China assets within Hong Kong and U.S. stocks, but A-shares are relatively concentrated. As the resumption of work and production continues after the holidays, fundamental verification information will arrive, forming a potential catalyst for pro-cyclical assets. Historically, whether it is the mobile Internet in 2013 or the high-end manufacturing market that began in 2019, a single sector is unlikely to be the only one in the market. Through transformation and the spread of concepts, and even the stabilization and recovery of the economy itself, it is an opportunity to repair low-level assets. The restoration of the pro-cyclical sector is worth looking forward to.

Recommended configuration: First, in the future, under the background of gradually improving domestic fundamentals bringing about expected improvements and easing of overseas demand suppression factors, domestic pro-cyclical raw materials will consume nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum)+ consumption.(Branded clothing, food, beverages, white electricity, tourism, etc.)+ midstream manufacturing (lithium batteries, transportation equipment, construction machinery, special materials, chemicals, etc.); Second, under the logic of physical assets, nominal interest rates will underperform inflation, and globally priced, dollar-denominated commodities will continue to be revalued, gold + crude oil; Third, low valuations + dividends, and at the same time have reduced macro risks in China: banks and insurance.

Zhongtai Securities: The market is expected to remain volatile before the two sessions

In the short term, after the market’s recent sentiment has been fully interpreted and spread, there may be some adjustment pressure in the next two weeks. There is still time before the two sessions. It is expected that the market may remain volatile before the two sessions, and technology stocks will also be active repeatedly, but the rotation will accelerate further.

In terms of industry, hard technology directions such as innovative drug research and development, military industry, and high-end manufacturing may be the potential positive sectors for subsequent “sword” and scientific and technological revaluation of major countries. In addition, the essence of the recent highs in gold and nonferrous metals is Trump’s destruction of the international order, and this trend will continue to strengthen. Since “tariffs and policy determination” exceeded expectations or were the most important factors in the 25-year total, dividend-type assets and bonds were also the main line of the investment portfolio throughout the year.

Haitong Securities: China version of the “M7” concept is gradually taking shape

The 25-year A-share spring market is on the way. Drawing on the history of A-shares, spring markets occur every year, and the spring market increases even more in the bull market. The current A-share market is active in sentiment, and transactions in the TMT and machinery industries are relatively popular under the catalysis of themes such as DeepSeek and humanoid robots. Analogy to the concept of the top seven U.S. stocks, this round of China’s technology market is also driven by some leading technology companies, and its trading popularity is also at a high level.

Looking to the future, compared with the Magnificent7 in the U.S. stock market, benefiting from the development trends of technology industries such as AI, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing, globally competitive China technology leaders are also expected to emerge among A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. China’s version of the “M7” concept is gradually taking shape, and these listed companies have relatively higher investment certainty. In addition to this time, real estate and consumer medicine that have poor expectations under the policy increase are also worthy of attention.

Industrial Securities: Many AI segments are expected to see economic improvement this year

For this round of AI market, DeepSeek’s “emergence” has caused positive changes in the domestic AI industry trends and fundamental logic. Although it may take some time to digest and consolidate after rapid volume increases, as AI penetration rates in various industries increase and more vertical applications accelerate, driven by the dual fundamentals and policy environment, AI may be supported through short-term congestion trading will continue to become the main focus of the market in the medium term.

With the breakthroughs in the AI industry and the recovery of domestic demand, many AI segments are expected to see an improvement in the economy this year. Taking into account the prosperity, congestion and capital inflows, among the 50 major segments of the AI industry chain, we can currently focus on relatively low-level and cost-effective links such as operators, optical modules, GPUs, PCBs, and HBM storage.

Guotai Junan: Stock index will fluctuate sideways after a rapid rebound

The positive changes in the attitude of decision-makers towards the economic situation and capital market, as well as the emergence of trends in China’s AI industry, maintain the annual judgment of China’s stock market as a “transformation bull” in 2025. The overall transaction pricing environment around the spring of 2025 is a stage where uncertainties increase, but macro policy expectations are temporarily difficult to adjust quickly. Therefore, the overall market’s willingness to bear risks is lower than in Q4 2024. With the rapid rebound in the past period of time, the market is quickly taking into account investors ‘optimistic expectations for the policies and industrial trends of the two sessions, and local highs in market sentiment are expected to form quickly. Therefore, we believe that in the next stage, the stock index will generally enter sideways shocks.

Theme recommendations: 1. AI applications: The demand for localized deployment of DeepSeek’s large model has increased significantly. Data-sensitive customers are the first to implement it, and they are optimistic about the acceleration of applications in government affairs, finance and other fields. 2. Domestic computing power: The explosion in domestic AI application demand will drive corporate AI capital expenditures, and we are optimistic about the server/AIDC industry chain that will benefit from corporate data and network infrastructure investment. 3. Mergers and acquisitions: The asset integration of central state-owned enterprises is accelerating, and we are optimistic about the reorganization and integration of high-end manufacturing and energy resources fields such as military industry. 4. Solid state batteries: The second all-solid state battery innovation and development summit forum was held. BYD/Chang ‘an Automobile and other companies released mass production plans, optimistic about key materials that will benefit from accelerated industrialization.

Huaxi Securities: “Spring Market” is at the time,”AI+” is still the general direction of allocation

Market Outlook: The “spring market” is at the right time, and AI+ is still the general direction of allocation. The current DeepSeek market is similar to the ChatGPT market in early 2023, but based on the learning effect of the market, this round of market interpretation is faster. Cloud computing, IDC, AI computing power, AI applications and other sub-sectors have generally increased, and the TMT sector has also exceeded the level of ChatGPT market in early 2023. Looking forward to the market outlook, TMT’s short-term micro-transaction structure is crowded or amplifies market volatility, but medium-and long-term technology is still the main line of allocation. The “artificial intelligence +” policy dividend is compounded by the acceleration of commercialization of AI applications in various fields. This round of AI+ investment is expected to shift from previous overseas mapping to the prosperity of the domestic AI industry chain.

China Merchants Securities: Foreign investment may reassess A-share China’s hard technology manufacturing assets

The growth rate of A-shares has lags behind that of Hong Kong stocks since the Spring Festival, mainly due to the double repair of “poor perception” and “poor valuation” by foreign investors on China’s technology assets, driving the rise of Hong Kong stocks ‘technology assets. According to the logic of foreign investment revaluation of China’s technology assets, foreign investment may revaluation A-share China’s hard technology manufacturing assets. Shareholder A Fang Jiujun (9 companies in the field of technology manufacturing: Ningde Times, BYD, Midea Group, SMIC, Mindray Medical, Lixun Precision, ZTE, WuXi AppTec, Zhongji Xuchuang) is currently lagging behind in growth, and its valuation is at the bottom of history. There is a possibility of valuation repair and replenishment. In addition, January’s financial data exceeded expectations, and the economy is still in the process of recovery. Against the background of the current extremely low interest rate environment and the shortage of medium and high return assets, A-shares in the low-valued traditional economic sector are also expected to usher in a revaluation, which has caused the A-share weighting index to begin to increase.