GuShiio.com The latest strategic views of the top ten securities firms + summary and sorting out the optimistic sectors.
Cailian News, March 9 (Editor Xuan Lin)The latest strategic views of the top ten securities firms have been newly released, as follows:
Industrial Securities: The revaluation of China assets is expected to spread in various fields
The essence of this round of market is the revaluation of China’s assets led by technological breakthroughs. Looking back, after the technology sector represented by AI has undergone early adjustments, the congestion pressure in some directions has been alleviated. Coupled with the recent opening of bidding for Alibaba’s computing power orders and the release of AI agent Manus, industry catalysts such as the recent opening of bidding for Alibaba’s orders and the release of AI agent Manus point to all links in the industrial chain. Iteration is accelerating, and the AI market is expected to be active again and again in the short term, and it will continue to be digested and consolidated through internal rotation. On the other hand, as the market enters the traditional window of improving the effectiveness of fundamentals and policy factors from March to April, the revaluation of China’s assets is expected to further benefit from policy support and improvement of the prosperity margin against the background of positive macro policy setting and accelerated implementation of various easing measures.
For the current AI sector, it is important to find a relatively low-level internal direction that is cost-effective. Combined with prosperity and congestion, among the 50 major segments of the AI industry chain, we can currently take the lead in focusing on relatively low-level and cost-effective links such as optical modules, servers, optical fibers and cables, PCBs, and operators.
Hua ‘an Securities: The market will continue to maintain high and volatile
The government work report met expectations, the market focus shifted to policy implementation and effect verification, and the domestic situation was generally stable. Although the risk of the United States imposing additional tariffs on my country is not the dominant factor in A-shares, it will also cause disturbance at certain points in time. Therefore, the market will continue to maintain high levels of volatility. Allocation is still in rotation. Manus will not change its cautious attitude towards technology stocks, focusing on banks and insurance that are cost-effective in the short term and strategic allocation value in the medium and long term, as well as pharmaceuticals and automobiles (excluding parts) that are undervalued by policies in the early stage., home appliances (excluding parts). Strong seasonal infrastructure and advantageous varieties are ushering in the opportunity to cash in on earnings.
China Merchants Securities: Technology is still the main market line
Judging from the performance reports and reports that have been disclosed so far, the overall profit of the Science and Technology Innovation Board is still under pressure, the revenue end is better than the profit end, large-market capitalization enterprises perform better, and the profits of AI hardware, overseas medicine and some mid-to-high-end manufacturing industries are the first to be repaired. According to the latest data, downward pressure on exports has initially appeared, and the need to expand domestic demand has become increasingly prominent. Recently, the statements on consumption in the two sessions have been relatively positive. In 2025, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will hit a five-year high. Subsequent special plans to boost consumption are expected to be introduced to further boost demand, and consumption may be phased in to dominate technological performance.
But in the medium and long term, technology is still the main market line. The release of the DeepSeek-R1 model marks a key breakthrough for China in the AI field and triggers global capital to rethink China’s assets. In terms of industry selection, it is recommended to focus on marginal improvements in AI+ areas where prosperity continues and consumer areas with low valuations. Key industries such as electronics (consumer electronics, semiconductors), machinery (engineering machinery, automation equipment), automobiles (auto parts), passenger cars), pharmaceutical biology (medical services), food and beverage, home appliances, etc. At the level of track selection, March focused on five major tracks with marginal improvement: AI chips, AI+ applications, solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, and optical modules.
CITIC Securities: End-side AI and high-density energy batteries are expected to usher in intensive catalysis in the second quarter
From the perspective of strategic paradigm, the past three years have been macro years, with macro fluctuations and policy responses being the main variables driving the market, and the barbell strategy has become a way to deal with frequent macro disturbances; on the other hand, this year, policy directions and goals are clear, and domestic macro fluctuations are decreasing, the market is transitioning to a macro year, and marginal changes in macro and policies are difficult to become factors driving the direction and structure of the market. The idea driven by the industrial boom is taking over the barbell strategy. In terms of response, end-side AI and high-energy-density batteries are relatively exclusive industry themes for A-shares, and it is expected that there will be intensive catalysis in the second quarter; the clearing of traditional core assets of A-shares is accelerating, and will follow the economic recovery in the future. It is expected that there will be an operating inflection point one after another. At the same time, it is expected that some leading companies planning to list in two places will start their markets with the launch of Hong Kong stocks.
It is recommended to focus on the “New Core Assets 30” of A-shares. The trend of anti-involution on the supply side is clear. It is expected that some cyclical industries such as aluminum, steel, panels, etc. will benefit from the implementation of industrial policies to improve quality and efficiency proposed by the two sessions, while paying close attention to changes in supply and demand in the new energy field and market conditions. Among the four directions of technology: domestic computing power, end-side AI, high-density energy batteries, and innovative drugs, end-side AI and high-density energy batteries are relatively exclusive sectors of A-shares. In the future, with the release of new products from leading manufacturers, it will bring intensive theme catalysis and upward industrial prosperity, and market attention is expected to increase significantly.
Zhongtai Securities: Firmly lay out the main line of this year’s technology industry
This year, the A-share market may show the characteristics of “overall increase in risk appetite, but deflation and corporate profits are still under pressure.” Market risk appetite and economic fundamentals may be “separated” in stages. After the two sessions, with the implementation of various economic data, some investors may gradually shift from expectations to reality, and market fluctuations may increase significantly.
At present, it is recommended to focus on defensive assets such as bonds and dividends, and safety assets such as gold, nonferrous metals, military, and nuclear power. Moderate caution should be exercised for the small and medium-sized technology sector, which is currently highly valued and is mainly driven by highly leveraged funds. At the same time, considering the characteristics of this year’s policies, if there are internal and external risk shocks in the future, we can firmly lay out the main lines of this year’s technology industry: the leading directions of Hong Kong stocks such as the Internet, computing power, and robots in the Hang Seng Technology Sector.
Minsheng Securities: When the conversion was in progress in March
Considering that the market’s pricing of the technology sector in the early stage has been relatively positive, the tone set by the two sessions seems not to be the reason and driving force for further significant increases in valuations. Even the relaxation of the IPO pace may have a negative impact on the scarcity premium of some existing technology stocks.
The weakening of manufacturing activities in the past has brought about an advantage in investment in the market industry track, but changes in the macro environment are gestating. For some time to come, the stabilization of electricity consumption may become the key. Allocation suggestions: First, benefiting from the trend of rebound in global manufacturing activity, non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold) will give priority to showing flexibility, and small metals (cobalt, antimony, germanium, etc.) that will benefit in part from the increase in European defense spending will also usher in opportunities. In contrast, crude oil will face disturbances in the short term, but we must see that lower oil prices will benefit traditional manufacturing powers, which will instead support the oil price hub from both sides of supply and demand in the medium term. Second, some capital goods whose supply patterns are relatively good or have undergone positive changes, and the demand side has benefited from fiscal expansion in the two major economies of China and Europe are expected to see a tailwind.(Construction machinery, steel, chemicals, automation equipment, lithium battery equipment, etc.), consumer confidence is gradually restored, pro-cyclical consumption (branded apparel, food, beverages, white electricity, tourism, etc.) and; third, stabilizing stock price tools + low valuation + dividends, while also reducing macro risks in China: banking and insurance.
Guangfa Securities: In the medium term, it is still the main line of technological growth
When the fundamentals of China and the United States are out of sync, the combination of a weakening or flattening of the United States + a recovery in China, A-share assets perform better. The narrative of a “soft landing” in the United States may be best for AH assets. In terms of short-term rhythm, continuity is still in place, and the “April Decision” is a window period to pay attention to fluctuations in risk appetite. In the past 15 years, the agitation period after the Spring Festival has lasted for about 31 trading days on average and median, and it is just halfway through the current time. In the medium term, it is still the main line of technological growth. Pay attention to “AI Applications”,”Byte Industry Chain”,”All-in-One Machines and Localized Deployment” that benefit from reduced reasoning costs; focus on “Tendons and Electronic Skin” for subdivisions in robots; focus on “Military Electronics” for low-level growth; Focus on “Cultural Going to Sea” and “Low-altitude Economy”.
Guotai Junan: Consumption recovery is expected to increase and the absolute value of liquor is highlighted
The government’s work tasks in the 2025 Two Sessions will “vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all aspects” as the first item, proposing to promote a better combination of consumption and investment. At the same time, from the perspective of high-frequency data, leading indicators such as first-and second-line real estate market data and PMI have rebounded marginally recently. As asset prices have stopped falling and stabilized, showing phased results and consumption scenarios have been repaired, overall consumption has shown a stabilizing trend, and the food and beverage sector is expected to rebound. From a transaction perspective, the technology sector was catalyzed by AI and robots in the early stage, which caused strong performance, widening the valuation gap. Consumer sectors such as food and beverage are expected to start valuation repair under the expected rebound and liquidity catalysis.
At present, the valuation of liquor is still at a historical low, and the absolute value of the allocation is prominent. It is recommended to pay attention to the valuation repair opportunities of leading targets with better sales and growth stocks with comparative advantages in performance. Among the mass goods segment, beer, beverages, and condiments are expected to be the first to stabilize, and the raw milk supply and demand cycle 2025H2 may be expected to bottom out.
Huaxi Securities: Investment opportunities for A-shares in domestic computing power, robots, AI applications, etc. are expected to continue to spread
In February, the global equity market showed a pattern of strong east and weak west. China’s market emerged from the structural technology market, and the Hang Seng Technology Index once rose by more than 20%. At the end of the month, affected by the sharp drop in U.S. technology stocks such as Nvidia and the impact of U.S. tariff policies, the technology sector’s profit-making sentiment began to show in the early stage, and some low-level pro-cyclical and consumer sectors also made up for gains in stages. In terms of funds, A-share financing funds were net purchased for four consecutive weeks, while ETF funds continued to be net redeemed. Most commodities fell in February, the geopolitical situation showed signs of easing, and international oil prices have recently fluctuated downward.
In the short term, affected by the sharp fall in U.S. stocks and the additional tariffs imposed by the United States, the independence of this round of structural technology markets has weakened. Market concerns about TMT trading congestion have intensified. Some trading funds may recede in stages. It is recommended to focus on benefiting from the “Two Sessions” policy. Opportunities for supplementary growth in the direction of domestic demand. In the medium and long term, this round of AI+ investment has shifted from overseas to the prosperity of the domestic AI industry chain. As the domestic AI industry accelerates to catch up with overseas, investment opportunities for A-shares in domestic computing power, robots, AI applications, etc. are expected to continue to spread.
Haitong Securities: AI+ enabled technology sector is the main line in the medium term
Recently, foreign investment is returning to the China market in stages. It is estimated that nearly 20 billion yuan in A shares flowed into the northbound channel from January to February, and the maximum inflow into Hong Kong stocks after the Spring Festival was about 18 billion Hong Kong dollars. Taking Hong Kong stocks as a reference, this round of return may be dominated by short-term flexible foreign investment, while long-term stable foreign investment may also have periodic inflows, structurally preferring Hong Kong stock technology.
This round of spring market may be halfway through. The AI+ enabled technology sector is the main line in the medium term, and the concept of “seven giants” in China’s science and technology is accelerating. In contrast to the technology sector, the current consumer medicine, real estate and other sectors are still underestimating and underallocating, or there are obvious expectations gaps. In the future, as policies work to promote the restoration of domestic demand, consumption and real estate fundamentals will gradually stabilize, and sector valuations are expected to return to the center.
