GuShiio.com: February 10 Daily summary of the views of large international and domestic investment banks and investment institutions

Domestic investment bank views

• CITIC Securities:
  • Macroeconomics: The Fed maintains its judgment that it will cut interest rates twice this year. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in January 2025 was lower than expected, but the job market remained healthy. The non-farm data broke the market’s optimistic sentiment after the release of the December CPI, and the expectation of interest rate cuts was postponed again. It is expected that the US stock market will maintain high volatility. If the January CPI or tariff plan exceeds expectations, the US bond interest rate and the US dollar index may rise again.
  • Technology industry: AI trading is entering the 3.0 stage.
• Caitong Securities: The high dividend strategy of the banking industry continues to be optimistic about economic recovery in 2025. The banking sector market in 2024 can be roughly divided into three stages: high dividend market, capital market and policy shift market expectations. It is expected that the banking sector will continue to benefit from economic recovery and policy support in 2025.

International Investment Bank Views

• Bank of America: Bank of America strategists expect that the lead of the U.S. stock market will continue to fade after the continuous rise in early 2025 stopped. They recommend going long on Chinese stocks because they do not expect the trade and technology wars to escalate.
• Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley strategists said that as the market digests the convergence of US and Japanese policy rates and tariff-related uncertainties, the yen, which outperformed G-10 currencies in February, has more room to rise.

Investment institution views

• • Xiang Ming: In terms of operations, focusing on artificial intelligence is the simplest main line and the place where market sentiment gathers. In the absence of new hot spots, the activity of artificial intelligence will not change. The theme outlook for 2025 includes the local outbreak of the artificial intelligence industry chain caused by innovation on the AI ​​application side and the rebound of real estate difficulties.
  • UOB Group: The US economy may perform better than most other countries in the world in 2025, based on President Trump’s pro-growth policies. Potential trade tariffs may challenge the prospect of slowing inflation. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points only once, in the second quarter of 2025. China’s economic outlook depends on major stimulus measures introduced by China to offset trade tensions with the United States.