Can Apple save the folding screen slowing down?

Wen| Fixed focus One Li Xueyan

Li Hua, who worked in Beijing, returned to a third-tier city in his hometown in Jiangsu during the Chinese New Year and found that at the family gathering, several business elders had used Huawei three-fold mobile phones, instantly becoming the focus of the audience. Being familiar with the mobile phone industry, she wanted to show off her professional knowledge, but found that everyone did not care about the product itself. They just used it as a guide to enthusiastically exchange anecdotes she encountered this year. What surprised her even more was that when one of the elders answered the phone, he took out another iPhone.

This is the first time Li Hua has realized firsthand that a folding screen mobile phone is not only a product, but also a social tool.

If it has been seven years since Rouyu Technology released FlexPai, the world’s first consumer-grade folding screen mobile phone, it has been seven years since folding screen mobile phones were released. Market research firm DSCC report shows that from 2019 to 2023, global shipments of folding screen mobile phones maintained a high growth rate of at least 40% per year. In contrast, global smartphone shipments fell by an average of 4% annually during this period, and shipments dropped by a cumulative 16%. Although folding-screen phones are still a niche track in terms of sales volume, no mobile phone manufacturer can ignore this fast-growing trend.

If the time stops in 2023, I believe most people will still agree with the above statement, but in 2024, the folding screen mobile phone market seems to have pressed the brake button. Counterpoint predicts that the global folding-screen mobile phone market will ship 25 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of only 37%. Compared with 52% in 2023 and 73% in 2022, the growth rate continues to decline.

Standing at the beginning of 2025, the AI connector has become the main driving force for the growth of the smartphone market, and the public is no longer new to the emerging form of folding-screen mobile phones. But there is also some good news. According to the latest news, the folding screen iPhone will be available as soon as next autumn. OPPO also officially announced that it will release its folding flagship this month.

Can folding-screen phones return to the golden age? Let’s continue to look down.

The growth rate of folding screens is slowing down, and domestic and foreign manufacturers have mixed performances.

Data can intuitively reflect market trends. Let’s first look at the global situation.

Counterpoint Research’s global folding-screen smartphone market tracking report shows that after six consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth, global folding-screen smartphone market shipments fell by 1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024 (fourth quarter and full year). Data not available). This was the first time in the market’s history that it fell in the third quarter, in sharp contrast to the average year-on-year increase in shipments of 48.5% in the first and second quarters.

Specific to major manufacturers, the trend is different.

Samsung regained the crown in the global folding screen mobile phone market in the third quarter with its new Galaxy Z6 series, with a market share of 56%. Although it is still the largest in the global folding-screen mobile phone market, its market share in the quarter fell by 14% year-on-year, far less than the 70% in the third quarter of 2023. In addition, Samsung’s shipments of folding-screen phones also fell 21% year-on-year.

Huawei, Glory, Motorola and Xiaomi ranked second to fifth respectively.

Report data shows that Xiaomi’s shipments of folding screen mobile phones increased by 185% year-on-year in the third quarter, ranking first in growth; Motorola and Glory achieved year-on-year shipments growth of 164% and 121% respectively; Huawei, as the largest market share in China, has a large base, with shipments only increasing by 23%.

Let’s look at the domestic market.

Let’s first clarify the background. China is the world’s largest and most important folding screen mobile phone market. Counterpoint Research had estimated that China would account for more than 50% of global folding-screen mobile phone shipments in 2024.

IDC data shows that in the third quarter of 2024, shipments of folding screen mobile phones in China reached 2.23 million units. Although it still maintained a year-on-year growth of 13.6%, the growth rate slowed down significantly compared with the previous eight quarters. In the fourth quarter, the slowdown was even more pronounced, with shipments reaching 2.5 million units, a year-on-year decline of 9.6% for the first time after nine consecutive quarters of rapid growth.

If the scope is enlarged to the full year of 2024, China’s shipments of folding-screen mobile phones will be approximately 9.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%. This data is not bad at first glance, but compared with the triple-digit year-on-year growth rates in previous years, the growth momentum has slowed down significantly.

Specific to major manufacturers, in 2024, Huawei will continue to lead the folding screen mobile phone market in China with a market share of nearly 50%; Glory ranks second with a share of 20.6%;vivo, Xiaomi and OPPO rank third to fifth, with market shares of 11.1%, 7.4%, and 5.3% respectively.

Among them, Huawei released vertical folding Pocket 2, horizontal folding Mate X6, and the high-profile three-folding Mate XT extraordinary master; Glory released Magic V3, Vs3, V Film and other folding screen products; Xiaomi brought the MIX family’s two new machines, MIX Fold 4 and MIX Flip;vivo released horizontal folding X Fold 3;OPPO has not released new products in a year.

To sum up, the growth rate of both the global and domestic folding screen markets is slowing down, but to varying degrees. The global market has fallen into negative growth, while the domestic market is still experiencing a small growth. In addition, the performance of domestic and foreign manufacturers was mixed. Samsung, the largest company, dropped significantly, but the performance of domestic manufacturers was relatively stable.

Many institutions are pessimistic about this year’s market trend. Canalys expects global folding screen shipments to continue to decline by 4% in 2025, with demand stagnant at approximately 22 million panels. IDC believes that it is difficult for folding-screen mobile phones to have greater breakthroughs and appeal in terms of usage scenarios and consumer groups. It is expected that more manufacturers will adopt a wait-and-see attitude and become more conservative in 2025.

How long will the folding screen slow down?

Why does folding screen mobile phones slow down? How long will this trend continue?

Before answering this question, let’s first briefly popularize science. Folding screen mobile phones refer to smart phone products that realize a foldable display form through flexible parts such as hinges and flexible screens. By increasing the number of screens and using single screens or multiple screens in combination, the purpose of increasing the display area is achieved.

According to the differences in product forms, folding screen phones can be roughly divided into two directions: horizontal folding and vertical folding, which are commonly known as large and small folding in the industry. Among them, horizontal folding can be divided into horizontal inner folding and horizontal outer folding. The advantage is to provide a larger screen and a better viewing experience; the characteristics of vertical folding are reflected in lightness and portability, and the smaller size, as well as the manufacturer’s design of external screen interaction, which has been favored by many users who pursue a slim feel and fashion trend.

In addition to the common large and small folds, there are also special-shaped folding products with more complex structures. Huawei launched the world’s first three-folding screen mobile phone in September last year. Huawei Mate XT Extraordinary Master adopted a zigzag solution that combines inner and outer folds.

Although the folding screen mobile phone market has experienced rapid growth for many consecutive years since 2019, especially the fastest growth rate from 2020 to 2022, its market size still accounts for a very low proportion of overall smartphone shipments. According to IDC, as of the first three quarters of 2024, the penetration rate of China’s folding screen mobile phone market is still only 3.2%. Looking at the global market, this figure is even lower. Some brokerage reports show that the global penetration rate of folding-screen mobile phones in 2023 is only 1%.

This is related to the characteristics of the folding screen mobile phone itself.

The first is that the price is expensive. Compared with straight-board flagship phones, folding screen phones are generally more expensive, and they often exceed 10,000 yuan. For example, the official price of the MIX Alpha 5G surround screen concept machine released by Xiaomi in 2019 is 19999 yuan, and the official price of Huawei Mate XT starts at 19999 yuan. Due to strong market demand, the prices of both in the second-hand market have been hyped, far exceeding the official selling price.

The price is expensive because of its high cost. Estimates show that the cost of folding screen mobile phones is more than 60% higher than that of ordinary mobile phones. The main cost comes from complex hinges and flexible OLED screens.

Li Nan, former vice president of Meizu, once simply estimated that the cost of parts for an ordinary 5G mobile phone is about 3000 yuan. After upgrading to a folding screen, the screen will require an additional 1400 yuan. Coupled with other components, the cost of parts for a folding screen mobile phone is estimated to be 5000 yuan. In addition, the costs of screen mold opening, structural part mold and software research and development are evenly spread to approximately 15000 yuan per mobile phone.

Secondly, consumers have an average sense of experience.

A report released by iResearch in September 2024 shows that users ‘concerns about folding screen phones mainly include software ecology, reliability, appearance, and hardware parameters. Among them, the biggest dissatisfaction lies in the software ecosystem, which can be simply understood as the APP and the screen are not completely compatible.

Currently, mainstream folding-screen phones usually maintain a display ratio of 4:3 after unfolding, which is consistent with the display ratio of most tablets. Therefore, many applications, such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu, have been able to adapt well to this ratio. There are only differences in the creative tricks of different manufacturers in terms of split-screen operation, software compatibility, and cut-screen experience. However, for triple-folding phones with a deployment ratio of as high as 28:9, it is still difficult to adapt the interfaces of different applications. After all, users ‘expectations for folding screens are not only proportional amplification, but also want to experience creative uses that cannot be brought by a straight bar machine.

In addition, despite the advancement of technology, folding screens still have shortcomings in terms of durability, battery life, weight, etc., which has led many consumers to prefer mature straight boards. Moreover, compared with straight bar machines, the maintenance cost of folding screens is also higher, which affects user confidence.

Finally, there is insufficient innovation.

When the folding screen mobile phone was first launched, its freshness and technological sense were the core selling points, attracting a large number of early adopters. However, now many bar machines innovate faster in imaging, AI, battery life, etc., reducing the technical premium of the folding screen. Folding-screen mobile phones are just in the form of rolling screens, without too much disruptive innovation, and consumers are aesthetically tired.

The user survey report released by iResearch in early 2024 shows that 96% of users are looking forward to upgrades of software functions and more intelligent operations. 64% of users are looking forward to breakthroughs in hardware in the future and smaller R & D., products with larger screens and more folding methods. From this point of view, for the vast majority of users, upgrades in imaging, AI, battery life and other aspects are far more important than opening up new forms.

Also worth noting is the background of folding-screen mobile phones slowing down.

According to Canalys, as of the third quarter of 2024, the global market has achieved year-on-year growth for four consecutive quarters. It is expected that annual shipments will reach 1.22 billion units, an increase of 6%. Among them, the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones has also increased to a record high of $356.

Analysts at Canalys said consumers are increasingly inclined to choose the high-end version of the flagship series. Taking Apple as an example, shipments of iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max in 2024 will increase by 11% compared to 15 Pro and Pro Max.

From a price perspective, the target group of folding-screen mobile phones and high-end flagship straight tablets relatively coincide. As the overall market recovers, some high-end users who might otherwise flow to folding screens have instead chosen flagship straight boards with better practicality and experience.

When Apple enters the game, will there be any surprises on the folding screen?

Market growth has slowed down, and manufacturers have begun to choose more conservative solutions. On the one hand, more attention is paid to the straight-board flagship machine, and resource investment has been adjusted. On the other hand, more attention is paid to the research and development of AI functions and no longer invested heavily in folding screens.

For example, OPPO has not released any folding screen products throughout 2024, and vivo has been exposed to stop selling new up-down (vertical) models in 2025. Recently, there has been news that two mobile phone manufacturers have suspended the research and development of three-fold products. Industry insiders speculate that one of them is glory.

Anthony Scarsella, director of terminal equipment research at IDC, said that many manufacturers are prioritizing the development of next-generation AI functions at the expense of folding-screen phones.

Despite this, manufacturers will not give up folding-screen mobile phones, but the purpose is not to increase volume, but to demonstrate their research and development capabilities and enhance industry influence.

According to incomplete statistics, there are about 10 folding-screen mobile phones expected to be released in 2025. Horizontal folding phones include OPPO Find N4/N5, Glory Magic V4, vivo X Fold 4, Huawei Mate X7, Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 7, and Xiaomi MIX Fold 5; vertical folding phones include Huawei Pocket 3, Glory Magic V Flip 2, Motorola moto razr 60, and Xiaomi MIX Flip 2. Among them, the OPPO Find N5 folding flagship has officially announced that it will be launched on February 20, claiming to be the thinnest folding flagship in the world.

In addition, manufacturers such as Dianyin and Samsung have chosen to follow up on the development of triple-fold products. Dianyin Phantom Ultimate 2 and Samsung Galaxy G Fold are expected to be released in 2025.

Can Apple’s participation give a boost to the folding screen market?

Whether it is a smartphone, tablet or smart watch, Apple’s entry has pushed the industry to a more mature stage. In terms of attention, Apple’s participation may reignite the confidence of consumers and investors.

In addition, as mentioned earlier, one of the problems faced by folding-screen phones is poor software adaptation. Apple’s ecosystem is complete, and its strong developer ecosystem may be able to promote more apps to adapt to folding screens and enhance the user experience. Moreover, Apple’s strong control over the supply chain may reduce the cost of key components such as flexible screens and hinges.

However, the biggest problem with folding screen phones is still the lack of demand. Combined with Apple’s slowness in smartphone iteration in recent years, many users are skeptical about Apple’s folding screen products, worried that even if it is launched, it may be like the Vision Pro’s bleak ending.

The rapid growth in the past few years has given many consumers, industry professionals, and even mobile phone manufacturers the illusion that folding-screen mobile phones are the future to replace straight-bar mobile phones. In fact, the above industry data shows that compared with straight mobile phones, the folding-screen mobile phone market is still small. If you want to go to the public, it involves issues such as price inclusiveness, technical reliability, and consumer awareness.

But what is certain is that folding-screen phones will not disappear, and there will be no breakthrough in the short term.

The current pattern of the folding-screen mobile phone industry dominated by Samsung and Huawei will not undergo major changes. Perhaps only when the public believes that folding-screen mobile phones are no longer unattainable and people-friendly products can it get out of the slow-down dilemma and get back on the fast lane.