GuShiio.com Recent structural changes have strengthened the reasons for bearish gold, and strong resistance lies ahead.
Authors: Xiao Yanyan, Jin Shi Data
As bulls seize on the economic uncertainty caused by the U.S. import tariff plan, gold prices have entered unknown territory, but behind the hit of the record of $3000 per ounce, some people are also sowing some bearish signals.
Gold started to surge sharply in 2025, breaking records eight times. As of February 11, the increase exceeded 10%. Prior to this, in 2024, gold prices recorded their largest annual increase in 14 years due to strong central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty and loose monetary policy.
Newly elected U.S. President Trump ignored the risk of triggering a trade war and turned to imposing tariffs to help troubled U.S. domestic industries, further enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe haven.
When Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum this week, spot gold hit a record of $2,942.70 per ounce.
‘What we see is that what we see,’said Philip Newman, general manager of consulting firm Metals FocusChanges in safe-haven buying motivations——From being driven by uncertainty in the Middle East to the threat and implementation of tariffs.& rdquo;
Last year’s rise, which began before the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates, was unexpected and investors were clearly willing to ignore the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield gold. Gold also often ignores other usual headwinds such as a stronger dollar.
Independent analyst Ross Norman said: “Shockingly, gold has rebounded as inflation has eased, and all our understanding of gold’s performance seems to be being challenged.” rdquo;
Gold bulls are bolder because of concerns that the U.S. tariff plan may affect the U.S. gold supply.
As a result, the premium to London spot prices in the most active U.S. gold futures trading has fluctuated violently, which has historically been only a few dollars, but expanded to $40 an ounce before Trump’s inauguration on January 20 and exceeded $60 during the inauguration week.
Market participants tried to benefit from profitable arbitrage opportunities or cover their existing positions in Comex, and the premium attracted large amounts of gold delivered to Comex inventory. Since late November last year, Comex’sGold inventories surged by 18.6 million ounces, worth $54 billion。
The waiting time for obtaining gold from the Bank of England has increased sharply as bullion market participants in London, home to the world’s largest over-the-counter gold trading center, rush to lend gold from the Bank of England’s coffers. Supply of gold to the United States from Switzerland and Asia-centered gold hubs has soared, and gold rental rates in London and India have also soared.
But by Tuesday, the Comex premium had narrowed to $28 an ounce, and even as gold on the road continued to flow into Comex inventories, traders and analysts expected the activity to gradually weaken.
John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, said: After New York’s gold imports surged, there is a sharp gap between New York futures prices and the London over-the-counter market.Disposition seems likely to be coming to an end。The queues to withdraw gold from the Bank of England’s coffers should decrease in the coming weeks, easing the apparent liquidity shortage in the London market. rdquo;
Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA, said that while prices may break through$3,200, but as the problem of physical gold misplacement caused by tariffs and potential structural changes (including reduced risk appetite, reduced participation and a reversal of reduced liquidity) is resolved, gold prices are increasingly bearish.
She said her company’s average price forecast for 2025 will remain at$2,750, I have no intention of raising the forecast, if anything has changed in the past few months, it isRecent structural developments have strengthened the case for bearish gold”。
jewelry demandAlready suppressed by high gold prices, major markets such as India have seen discounts, further suggesting that gains may slow further once the tariff situation becomes clear.
Cartier manufacturer Richemont said in November last year that it had to pass on soaring gold prices extremely carefully in the pricing of watches and jewelry.
According to Bank of America Securities, if the local currency weakens due to the US tariff increase,emerging market central banksIt is possible to reduce gold purchases.
Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by physical gold were also relatively calm, with funds listed in Europe registering inflows in January but outflows in North America.
From a technical perspective, gold has been in the overbought zone of the relative strength index since early February.
Gold may encounter strong resistance near important milestones such as $3,000——Last year, gold faltered above the $2000 mark many times before decisively breaking through it.
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