GuShiio.com 
On February 6, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement that since the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices on January 16, oil prices on the international market have fluctuated. According to the current domestic refined oil price mechanism, compared with the average price of the first 10 working days before January 16, the price adjustment amount is less than 50 yuan per ton. According to Article 7 of the “Petroleum Price Management Measures”, gasoline and diesel prices will not be adjusted this time. The unadjusted amount will be included in the accumulation or offset during the next price adjustment.
As the Spring Festival holiday ends, domestic oil prices stop rising
This round of domestic oil price adjustment is the third adjustment in 2025 and the first adjustment after the Spring Festival.
In the previous three months, oil prices have experienced a trend shift from three consecutive runs to two consecutive increases. The adjustment on January 16 also showed the largest increase in nearly 16 months (gasoline prices increased by 340 yuan per ton, diesel prices increased by 325 yuan per ton), which also led to a continued increase in travel costs for fuel owners.
During the longest cycle of this round, which includes the eight-day Spring Festival holiday, the rate of change of crude oil used for oil price adjustment continued to narrow within the positive range and finally closed at 0.73%. The corresponding increase in gasoline and diesel prices was 30 yuan/ton, which did not reach the minimum price adjustment standard line of 50 yuan/ton, so the first time in the year was stranded.
Including the previous two increases, since the beginning of this year, domestic gasoline prices have increased by 410 yuan per ton, and diesel prices have increased by 395 yuan per ton.
In terms of provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, except for Hainan and Xizang, where oil prices have always been high, the prices of No. 92 gasoline in other regions are mainly concentrated between 7.5 yuan/liter and 7.9 yuan/liter, and the prices of No. 95 gasoline are mainly concentrated between 8 yuan/liter and 8.5 yuan/liter.
Regarding the direction of the next round of oil price adjustment, Longzhong Information analyzed that the next round of price adjustment cycle will start with a large decline. Considering the recent negative policies, it is expected that the probability of refined oil prices eventually lowered is high. According to the principle of adjusting the domestic refined oil retail price limit within ten working days, the next round of oil price adjustment will be 24:00 on February 19 after the Spring Festival holiday.
Trump tariffs strike, international oil prices rise and fall back
At the beginning of this year, international oil prices started with a strong rise. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both rose by more than 10% in more than 10 days, rushing to new highs since August last year. However, just after Brent crude oil reached US$82.63/barrel on January 15 and WTI crude oil prices hit a price high of US$79.39/barrel, oil prices continued to fall. Especially after Trump took office as President of the United States on January 20 and issued a series of executive orders to stimulate oil and gas production, the decline in oil prices further widened. On February 1, Trump signed an executive order to impose additional tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. Although there is still room for game in the implementation of tariffs, the crude oil market has obviously been hit again. According to analysis by Zhuochuang Information Energy researcher Li Xinyue, the market generally expects that the US tariff increase will increase downward pressure on the economy, drag down demand and weaken oil prices. Coupled with Trump’s request for OPEC to increase production to reduce oil prices, the recent oil market sentiment has been obviously biased towards caution, and crude oil prices generally showed a volatile downward trend.
However, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are at a relatively low level, which has provided certain support for oil prices. In addition, according to Reuters, Trump resumed his policy of extreme pressure on Iran on February 4, local time in the United States, including increasing sanctions to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero, which has once again triggered market anxiety about tight supply. It is worth noting that as an important supplier of U.S. crude oil, Trump’s policy of imposing a 10% tariff on energy resources from Canada is having a continuing impact on the oil trade between the United States and Canada. Shenyin Wanguo Futures Senior Analyst Dong Chao said that the United States still has a large dependence on Canadian imported crude oil, and in the short term domestic shale oil cannot replace Canada, including Mexico’s heavy oil. For now, these commodities will still flow into the United States and lead to U.S. refined oil prices have soared sharply, and American consumers will bear higher oil prices. In the “2024 Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry Development Report” recently released by the PetroChina Economic Research Institute, it was mentioned that Trump’s coming to power will have a short-term and long-term impact on international oil prices“”. On the one hand, the increase in oil and gas production in the United States will lead to an increase in supply. The imposition of tariffs will affect the recovery of demand, and in the short term, international oil prices will bear greater pressure; But on the other hand, after Trump took office, he withdrew from the Paris Agreement aimed at addressing climate change and revoked many of the Biden administration’s policies that supported clean energy and green transformation. The pace of global energy transformation and the exit of fossil fuels will also slow down as a result, and the peak time point for oil demand may also shift later. In the long run, this will provide more benefits to oil prices. At least judging from the situation in early February, the short-term effect has already appeared. As of February 6, Brent crude oil prices fell below US$75/barrel, down more than 9% from the mid-January high. WTI crude oil prices also fell to around US$71/barrel, down about 10% from the January high.
Regarding the oil price trend in February, Longzhong Information believes that as crude oil demand expectations weaken, downward pressure on oil prices will be greater in February. Zhuochuang Information also said that February is the off-season for traditional demand. Against the background of weak demand and greater uncertainty on the supply side, oil prices may weaken and volatility may further intensify.(This article is launchedtoGuShiio.com Stock Market Smart APP, author|Hu Jiameng, editor|Liu Yangxue）
