GuShiio.com Users need to develop a strategy for when to sell. While it may sound harsh, that’s the market, and specific strategies for exiting a trade need to be developed before trading.
Author: Finish, Encrypted KOL
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
This cycle is very difficult and worse than any previous cycle. Many even call it a “crime cycle” because the number of Rugs and projects that scams money has been growing.
The purpose of this article is to reflect on the past and try to predict what will happen next.
Pump.Fun birth
On January 19, 2024, Pump.fun was born, and the well-known meme token has since been changed. Regardless of age, occupation or nationality, everyone has the opportunity to issue tokens.
The hype was not very popular at the time, but eventually in March last year, Pump.fun began to rise with the appearance of tokens such as MICHI and FWOG. The fact that almost anyone can publish memes in seconds has transformed the entire realm of encryption.
With many tokens bundled, Pump.fun is a fair release opportunity and no insider dumping it. Although it looks good, it also charges a lot.
Since its launch, Pump.fun has made more than 2.86 million SOL, or approximately US$577 million. It may be one of the most successful startups of all time.
This liquidity has been permanently extracted and pocketed by Pump.fun developers, which is one of the important reasons that makes this cycle unique.
Bitcoin halving
Next comes one of the most critical moments in the current cycle. On April 20 last year, the reward for mining BTC blocks was reduced from 6.25 to 3.125. With the first ETF approved on January 10, many believed that the halving was a “sell news” event, but instead a new ATH emerged.
Halving ETF + Bitcoin is the most bullish setting because many people have been waiting for institutional liquidity to start pouring in, and that is what happened next. Fidelity, BlackRock and MicroStrategy are buying every day, injecting more and more liquidity into them.
This gives traders hope. Many traders thought this cycle would be similar to the previous cycle, but this time, everything was different. The market always seems to be moving in the opposite direction of the “public”.
All you expect is your problem
Looking back at the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the two cycles are actually very similar. Making money is not difficult and does not require any special knowledge. At that time, there were 10-20 types of altcoins that everyone knew about and had been hoarding.
First, BTC rose, and then ETH followed closely behind as a beta game in the cycle, usually with a higher return on investment. Then transition from ETH to altcoins, from high-market capitalization currencies to low-market capitalization currencies.
This is why many people have decided to skip the BTC phase in 2024 and go straight to ETH or altcoins. If ETH can increase by 5 times, and large altcoins can even increase by 10 times, why wait for a return of 2-3 times from BTC?
The logic is simple, but the public did not consider that this cycle might be different. The number of projects, tokens, and memes is 100 times greater than before. People buy familiar tokens such as DOT, ATOM, and ADA and expect a 10-fold return.
It turns out that when liquidity shifts to altcoins, all old altcoins are left behind due to the proliferation of altcoins, especially the emergence of new altcoins.
with 2021 Compared with 2010, the fraud situation is different
Cryptographic KOL OverDose made a reasonable point. In 2021, for the sake of “Rug”, scammers will be very creative, and users can stop at the brink of the brink of the precipice as long as they are not too greedy.
- Do Kwon’s Terra $LUNA
- FTX by Sam Fried
- 3AC had long-term investments before the crash
- Alameda promotes different narratives and manipulates markets
Fraud is hard and requires a certain IQ, but nowadays we just use big names, celebrities, and even presidents to promote their garbage projects.”
Players have become accustomed to gambling and have begun to feel FOMO about TRUMP and MELANIA, and want to make money on CAR or LIBRA, but they have suffered heavy losses.
Personally, I know that 10-15 outstanding traders invested heavily in LIBRA (up to US$1 million), while insiders dumped more than US$100 million on them.
it was time for a change
It’s time to understand that cycles will never be the same and that altcoins are not just a “beta game” for BTC or ETH, it’s a completely different niche market with more risks and opportunities.
You can’t continue to expect DOT or ATOM to rise just because BTC broke a record high in 2021 and drove altcoins.
There is no doubt that individuals are still bullish on BTC and believe that it will continue to be one of the best compound assets in the next 10-20 years, but returns will be similar to stocks and 200% annual growth will no longer be easily achieved.
The main things you need to learn from this cycle:
- Simply holding is cowardly and if you don’t sell at the right time, you will face a loss. Murad has been calling for hold, and nearly all of his memes have dropped 80-90% since ATH.
- You need to develop a strategy for when to sell. This may sound harsh, but that’s the way the market is, and a specific strategy for exiting a trade needs to be developed before trading.
- Narrative rotation. Recently, we have experienced crazy rotations from meme to AI agents to TRUMP. If you fall behind at any time, most of the gains may be wiped out. Always follow the narrative and remember that mobility is limited.
- It’s better to arrive in time than early. Don’t think too much and rotate when the time is right.
- No matter how much you believe in the agreement, ensure stable profits, and keep accumulating Bitcoin, Bitcoin is still better than most stock or real estate opportunities.
Hopefully this cycle is not over yet, and the current BTC consolidation will determine what happens in the next 2-3 months.
Related reading: The Dark Forest of MEME Coins: Industrial harvesting lines earn millions a day, and retail investors are struggling to get gold under the Retention rate of one in ten thousand
