GuShiio.com The life cycle of most Memes is like a fashion trend. Every year, new fashion trends emerge, and old Memes are gradually eliminated.
Author: BitpushNews
After resigning from the Internet giant Meta, Justin has devoted himself to the encryption field full-time. As an entrepreneur and Crypto Degen (fanatic), he not only successfully bet on popular targets such as PEPE, Degen, and TRUMP, but also accumulated rich records. Valuable lessons have been learned from market fluctuations.
In an exclusive interview with this comparison, Justin shared his story from Meta to Crypto, and discussed in depth the investment strategy, market status and future trends of Meme coin. This article contains a lot of dry goods, which can be inspired by whether you are a novice to Meme coins or a veteran player. Recommended reading!
Part 1: Dachang employees jump into the encrypted “rabbit hole”
You quit your job from Meta and focus on meme and Crypto. How did your family or friends react? What do they think of meme coins?
Justin: I am more like a Crypto degen than a “person who resigned from a big factory and started a business.” Before joining Meta, I decided to deeply cultivate Crypto for a long time, but felt that I needed more technical and teamwork experience, so I went to Meta. At that time, Meta also had a Crypto team. Many big players were veterans of the Libra project, including the Development Team of the Move language, and Instagram even had an NFT business. As a result, not long after I entered, a bear market came. Meta cut all blockchain-related businesses and focused on the metaverse and AI.
At that time, while earning a salary at Meta, I converted most of my income and stocks into cryptocurrency, and in my spare time I spent working on various DeFi, NFT, SocialFi and Meme projects in Crypto. In 2023, as Chinese, we held the first 1,000-person Blockchain + AI conference in New York, inviting many star projects. These experiences were of great help to my subsequent entrepreneurship.
The family actually “seems to understand but fully supports Crypto.” My dad even searches the news himself. Every time he sees Doge and Trump coins out of the circle, he comes to me and asks,”Did you buy them?” It’s pretty cute.
Do they support you All in Crypto?
Justin: I was a little hesitant at first. After all, giving up Meta’s good treatment and going to an “uncertain” industry is a lot of risk. But life is a choice. You cannot have to stabilize your salary and seize the Alpha opportunity. I talked to them about the long-term certainty of Crypto, and they ultimately respected my decision, and my dad even asked me to help him deposit some bitcoins.
Have you made or lost money on meme investment? What do people around you think?
Justin: Overall, I make money, but there are more Meme coins that lose money than those who make money. The core strategy is: If I am optimistic about a Meme, I will bet heavily, such as Pepe in 2023, Degen in 2024, and Trump in 2025. In this way, even if most Memes return to zero, the few bets will be enough to turn the tables.
I have seen many friends “spread the net widely” and buy a little on each hot Meme. It is indeed possible to bet a hundred times of coins. However, because the positions are too scattered and the final income is average, there is a pile of zero-to-zero coins lying in their wallets.
Did you step in a pit before you entered the meme track?
Justin: Meme Investment is a “comprehensive discipline”. You must understand hot topics, emotions, culture, investment, and you must also understand yourself, which are interconnected. What I have learned most in the past two years is that the market can make you lose money in many more ways than you think.
Part 2: Discussion on the current situation of Meme coins
CZ drying dogs with fire BNB chain Meme, what do you and your friends think?
Justin: CZ saw the trend in transaction volume on the chain and hoped to take advantage of the momentum to increase the activity of the BNB chain, but the community responded not very well. Because he did not make it clear which Broccoli was the official version, hundreds of markets appeared in an instant, cutting off many retail investors and dispersing liquidity.
The marketing level of this operation is very successful and has indeed aroused the popularity of the BNB ecosystem. But the problem is that the mood of individual investors is determined by whether they make money or not. Many people lose money and naturally curse. This model creates topics in the short term, but may damage user trust in the long run.
Is there any chance for the meme of BNB Ecology to explode?
Justin: Of course there are opportunities, but there is still a long way to go. The infrastructure of the BNB ecosystem cannot keep up with Meme’s transaction needs, such as transaction speed, infrastructure, stability, etc. Solana and Base also went through many polishing to have today’s silky skating experience. However, BNB was obviously not prepared this time. Pancake and Binance Wallet were severely stuck, with high slip points and poor stability, which made transactions difficult for many users.
In addition, BNB needs to find its own flashpoint rather than simply copying the successful experiences of other chains. Solana has Pump.fun to standardize Meme issuance, aggregate liquidity, and drive the trading tool ecosystem. BNB needs a similar breakthrough. I think AI may be a direction, especially AI applications. Chinese are very good at this field. If the “Pump.fun” of the AI era can be incubated, it may revitalize the entire ecosystem.
Argentine President Millay took a single Meme coin and then Rug Pull left. What do you think?
Justin: Millay may have seen the meme popularity of Trump and other celebrity coins and felt that they could combine Crypto promote Argentina’s economy and also provide financing for private companies. Maybe the KIP team also provided him with some benefit share. However, he probably did not expect that he would be cut off in the future, causing the currency price to collapse and social media public opinion to explode, so he immediately deleted the post to clear his responsibility.
How do the Crypto traders or VCs around you comment on this?
Justin: Many chain experts and Founders have suffered terrible losses, totaling at least US$10 million. Everyone was very angry at Milai’s deletion of tweets, because the endorsement of national leaders made them dare to take big positions. But Crypto is a casino, and every piece of information affects decision-making. The key is whether you can predict and respond to new information. For example, when Milai deletes tweets, do you choose to cut or add a position?
The most important thing is that traders should not have a “loss aversion” mentality because of losses and want to make up for losses. Instead, they should calmly analyze whether to add a position or stop losses just like they saw Milai’s push. The essence of trading is to pay for your decisions.
Will “national-level ordering” become the new normal for Meme coins?
Justin: If 3 to 4 national-level Meme coins are all in the “online skyrocketing-plunging to zero” model in a short period of time, this game will no longer be played. People who have lost money will not get on the bus again, and subsequent countries will not dare to play.
If we want to be established in the long run, we must find an economic model and gameplay that can continue to operate. Otherwise, like the NFT, it will collapse after a short period of popularity.
Part 3: How should ordinary users play meme?
Many meme investors say that they “know it’s a bet, but they just can’t help but rush.” What do you think of this mentality?
Justin: Meme coins give people a sense of excitement like a “grassroots counterattack”, which is similar to the attractive mechanism of casinos, but Meme’s rise and fall far exceed those of casinos, and even make casinos seem a bit boring. Although most people end up losing money, stories of sudden wealth that are a hundred times or a thousand times will still make people believe that “I may be the next person to make a comeback.” Even if you lose money, you will continue to rush because the FOMO mentality is at work.
But only by rushing, you can live longer if you have strategic rushing. Real traders will carefully select targets with a winning probability, rather than just holding on to a Meme. At the same time, set a clear stop-profit and stop-loss strategy so that you will not be led by market sentiment.
If I were an ordinary investor, how should I judge which meme coins have potential and which ones are pure leeks?
Justin: Due to time constraints, I rarely sit in front of the computer all the time, continue to pay attention to the newly opened meme and participate in the internal trading stage. Therefore, I prefer to choose a medium and long-term meme with a life cycle of more than a few hours. This requires judging the meme’s narrative, chip structure, profit-to-profit ratio, and whether it has the explosive power of social communication.
Narrative
In terms of narrative judgment, I think there are two key points: the number of people covered and the depth of resonance. First, it depends on whether the narrative reaches enough people; second, whether it can move these people and resonate with them. If the narrative is too small, although it may not be bad, the ceiling is limited and it is difficult to spread on a large scale. However, some well-known IPs may not be suitable as memes, because everyone’s resonance and sense of identity may not be high. These two points are indispensable.
You need to determine whether the project has traces of Zhuang. Generally speaking, Zhuang’s wallet will definitely appear in the Top 100, so you can focus on digging deep into the Top 100 addresses, paying special attention to the fact that during the second sideways move, the dealer is most likely to go to the next stage to collect money.
Market-making wallets mainly depend on the number of transactions. Their role is to cash out and distribute at high levels, absorb funds to protect the market, and gradually raise the bottom. At the same time, they harvest chips from retail investors and transfer chips to diamond players and large households.
Trading volume is also a good way to judge Zhuang. I usually use trading volume/market value to judge. If the value remains 1 for a long time, it means that the dealer on this plate is still strong.
Address library management: Every time I find a store, I will save the address and may use it again in the future, similar to the way to track smart money.
Profit/Loss Ratio (Risk-Reward Ratio)
You need to set a target price for this token based on narrative judgment. For example, PNUT may be a 1B level narrative, while Trump is a 100B level narrative. Based on the current market value and your target price, it can help you determine whether it is worth investing and how many positions you should invest. For example, Dogshit2, a narrative I have recently been optimistic about, I think it can reach a market value of at least 100M, but currently only 2M. This allows me to see 50x upside, so I will choose to invest a certain position and follow my judgment.
You need to quickly determine who follows this token on Twitter, deduce their communication relationship, and analyze which potential circles or KOL may pay attention to it in the future. This requires a certain accumulation of KOL value in meme’s core circle. You can use tools such as Katio or The1 to analyze the influence of KOL and help determine its communication potential.
Many meme experts have summarized many excellent investment suggestions. I suggest you check the “Meme Operation Guide from US$0 to US$10 Million” written by GMGN and experts on the chain. It contains many in-depth analyses on selecting meme targets and corresponding stop-profit and stop-loss strategies. This guide is a very practical reference. GMGN: Meme Operation Guide from US$0 to US$10 Million.pdf
What would you think of a meme project? Are there any “stop profit” or “stop loss” rules?
Justin: Looking at a meme is divided into several stages: obtaining information → evaluating → investing → taking profit/stopping loss.
Get information:There should be as many information channels as possible, while ensuring the quality of information. I will discuss it in some groups of players on the core chain, and I will also pay attention to the Twitter and TG groups of high-quality KOL to ensure that when high-quality projects appear, I will know as soon as possible. In addition, I will also keep an eye on the signals on the chain and try not to miss potential targets.
Quick assessment:After discovering potential meme, you need to make a quick judgment. Twitter common friends are a very helpful judgment dimension. This requires your Twitter follow list to be well trained, pay more attention to high-quality KOL, and continuously accumulate high-quality information sources. This is a magic weapon for judging the quality of a project. Next, evaluate the narrative, chip structure and profit-loss ratio according to the methods described earlier, and then decide whether to invest and the size of the investment position.
Stop profit and stop loss strategy:My strategy is to double or triple the cost first, and the rest will be phased out according to the ideal valuation. Meme changes too fast. I will not set rigid stop-profit and stop-loss standards, but adjust them in real time based on market sentiment. For example, the sudden deletion of a tweet by Argentine President Millay cannot be predicted in advance. When such an emergency occurs, you must immediately stop losses without hesitation.
If you were asked to give meme investors 3 survival tips, what would you say?
Justin：1. Learn to judge the emotion, communication power, persistence, and whether the topic is cyclical. Whether a meme can become popular depends not only on the narrative itself, but also on whether its emotions can continue to ferment.
2. If you are optimistic about meme in terms of narrative, chip structure and profit-loss ratio, you must dare to position and not blindly diversify your investment. A too fragmented investment method may prevent you from making big profits, and eventually it will become “after working hard for a long time, all you earn is pocket money.”
3. Losses are part of success. Carefully analyze the reasons for each loss of money, summarize it in depth, and apply it to the next investment. The real master is not that he does not lose money, but that he can learn from every loss and constantly optimize his strategy.
Part 4: How Meme will go in the future
Do you think the hype of meme coins has reached its peak, or will there be more crazy ways to play in the future?
Justin: I think there will be a crazier way to play than Pump.fun Meme culture runs through the entire history. Before the advent of blockchain, people were already good at playing with tricks and culture, which is one of the indispensable joys in life. The blockchain has given Meme a more efficient way to create and disseminate, making it possible for an IP to explode quickly, which cannot be achieved by the efficiency of traditional cultural dissemination.
I think social, news and Meme will be more closely integrated in the future. If every news and hot topic could correspond to a Meme, what would it be like? Perhaps the future Meme ecosystem will not just be a transaction, but will become a consensus carrier for a certain news hotspot, allowing people to participate in it in a more intuitive way. This will be very interesting and could be the next big opportunity.
If you were asked to predict the meme market in 2025, do you think it would continue to be hot?
Justin: Not only will Meme continue to be popular in 2025, but it will also be popular throughout the market for a long time. Meme has become a new generation of news, hot spots and cultural expression, building consensus through currency prices.
Hot spots will continue to appear, trend culture will continue to evolve, and hot people will emerge one after another, but the fashion trends will be different every year. Therefore, if you want to seize opportunities in the Meme field, you must have sensitivity to world hot spots, including technology, culture, trends, politics and other fields.
Every field will have its own leading Meme. Investors can choose the direction they are good at, give full play to their advantages, and dare to seize opportunities when the right Meme appears.
Do you think meme ecology may become a “valuable long-term asset”?
Justin: To understand the nature of Meme, it is actually a type of information with dissemination properties. Whether Meme can be popular depends on whether the information it carries (culture, stalks, news, hot people, etc.) can accumulate enough attention and communication effect in the short term. This is similar to the hot search mechanism. The difference is that Meme is measured by transaction volume and market value, while hot search is judged by post popularity and page views.
Then, to judge whether a Meme has long-term value, it depends on whether the information it carries has the ability to spread long-term or periodically. An example:
Doge is mentioned by Musk from time to time, and at the same time, it is linked to the efficiency of the U.S. government and has long-term discussion value, so Doge has become a long-term Meme.
Meme like PNUT has extremely strong real-time explosive power, but it is difficult to predict whether it will explode again in a suitable scenario in the future, so its long-term properties are weak.
At present, only a few Memes have long-term value, and most Memes are still short-term hot spots and do not have the ability to explode again. The life cycle of these Memes is like a fashion trend. Every year, new fashion trends emerge, and the old Memes are gradually eliminated. As a result, the Meme ecosystem will continue to evolve, but only a very few can truly become long-term assets.
