GuShiio.com Externality, even large-scale adoption, you can cheat VC buddies of their money, but many teachers really cheat themselves.
Author: Gu Crane.hl
First of all, expectations are good, but reality is cruel. As long as you try, you will know that you can’t attract new people. Several presidents issue coins but can’t attract a few new users. Why do you think the broken things you develop can be used by normal people?
The so-called safe protocol caused the largest hacking incident in the history of the industry and may eliminate the industry. It is estimated to be one of the best cases in the entire history of the human network.
The products developed by most project parties are not as good as safe. They are all just garbage. Users in the industry generally have strong learning abilities and are not used to using them. If they give them back to web2 users, what dreams do they have?
It’s not that I’m badmouthing the industry. You should first serve the users already in the industry well, and then fantasize about external users. In fact, it didn’t fall much. The greed index is already 10 and it’s extremely panicked. People in the venue are unable to keep them, and they are still staring at the money from outsiders.
That is to say, bybit is probably the largest asset management customer you can find in the industry. It can even give others money to play with, and it can’t even cover it at all. Let them take the money and compensate them themselves. What qualifications are there for this kind of project to talk about externalities?
Secondly, if an industry is really completely free of externalities, will it collapse?
Obviously not. For example, in many monopolies, users can live well without growth. Even if they have negative growth, they are still alive and well. They don’t care whether there is externality or not.
Because no matter how monopolized an industry is, it is not a closed system, and users in the industry will definitely conduct economic exchanges with the outside society.
So, does the currency circle really need more new blood?
Of course not. There are no externalities, just periodic adjustment is needed.
There are bear markets where the lost leeks are allowed to go for takeout, save some gambling money, and after a period of time, they can put on the plate. When the next bull market begins, they happily shout for the cattle to come back and come back to play again.
In other words, the participants themselves are a constant source of externalities.
So there is a saying that leeks are the best asset of the exchange.
Those industries that do require externalities are industries where everyone is a practitioner, but the financial market is obviously not such an industry. Most users only occasionally use their spare money to gamble and do what they should do in normal times.
The only currency that really needs to be adopted on a large scale is currently btc. After all, it has a market value of one trillion yuan and it will be difficult to move without external funds.
Finally, is it a good thing to introduce externalities? Not necessarily.
Not to mention that domestic group incidents cause legal risks, another very critical point is that the most powerful thing about the currency circle is that it is much higher than the average consumption power of users in other industries.
Why does @kaitoai have such an outrageous valuation? Because whether WeChat or Xiaohongshu, their consumption power is much weaker than crypto twitters. Why can @hyperliquidx reach 1/10 of binance’s transaction volume with 1/7500 users?
Borrowing the words I learned from the last pi price analysis:user mass densityThe value contribution rate (ARPU) per user determines the overall value of the user group.
People are different. This is not a general election. One person, one vote. It is the financial market. The more money, the more votes.
This is why users of hooks, tg Mini programs coins, and pi’s uncle and aunt users, whether they are fake data or real people, are of little use.
Take a step back, when you really spend a lot of money to introduce so-called externalities, what is the result?
These people would rather spend half a month rolling out a bag of fruit, receiving a glass a month, collecting 20 yuan a year to withdraw cash, or even spending seven years signing every day without knowing if there will be results, nor will it cost a dime.
Because this money also needs * risk exposure is the real externality, and money that dares not return to zero is not money at all in the currency circle.
If they really feel confident enough to charge in the money, they will end up putting all low-risk agreements to a financial annualization of 0.5%, that’s all.
It’s not that I look down on anyone, but everyone’s investment philosophy is different. Most people are trained as screws of society. They are not pushed into a hurry like Koreans. They are all honest and instinctively resist gambling.
These people are indebted users of the industry and will only suck blood when they come in. If institutions are scythes, then the Wool Party is a locust. This is not an essential consumer industry such as takeout, taxi rides, and online shopping. Winning ineffective people will not produce benefits. Hard work and diligence will not change your project, but will only waste your marketing budget.
For the investment market, there are only a small number of people in the world who have spare cash to invest/gamble. There are even a very few people who have as large a risk exposure as crypto users, that is, the hundreds and eight hundred thousand people who buy trump online.
Most of the project parties who want to enlighten web2 users and make it easier for them to use web3 are unfortunately working in the wrong direction. They don’t use it, not because it’s not convenient enough, but because they are not your customers in the first place.
Complex products and high learning costs are themselves the best screening for users. Why does electric fraud engage in such a clumsy scam as I am Qin Shihuang making money, and why does the nft project like to be so weird and ugly? Quickly screening target customers is the best way to concentrate consensus.
When you deceive people with value or aesthetics, the scam will eventually fail, but when the participants all know that this is a game and a dream, the sweetness can last longer.
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