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Analysis: How to understand the “save, not buy” strategic reserve of Bitcoin signed by Trump?

Author | & nbsp;Alex Xu

Just encrypted and AI Tsar David Sacks tweeted that Trump had signed an executive order to establish a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve), which would include:

1. The reserve is based on the existing federally controlled BTC, and subsequent confiscated BTC will also enter the reserve.

two。 These BTC will not be sold (at least during Trump’s tenure)

3. The government will not set a separate budget (that is, ldquo; budget neutral, meaning budget-neutral”) to buy BTC.

4. Trump kept his promise.

Tweet link:

How to understand the above news? I think the main points are as follows:

1. This & ldquo; Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) & rdquo;, is not the same thing as the ldquo; Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (Strategic Federal Reserve) & rdquo; bill promoted by Senator Cythia Lummis at the federal level. The former can be directly controlled by the government, while the latter needs to be legislated by Congress. The former itself does not have a separate budget for buying BTC (if an increase requires congressional approval), while the latter will provide a separate budget for the purchase of BTC, which aims to buy 1 million in five years, which may come from a revaluation of the value of existing US gold reserves, thereby expanding the Fed’s asset count and providing a budget for the Treasury to buy BTC. What David Sacks said & the ldquo; government will not buy other assets for reserve assets & rdquo;, does not mean that the popular impression of Bitcoin strategic reserve has suddenly become something that relies solely on forfeiture and does not spend money on BTC alone.

two。 Can the above executive order show that Trump has fulfilled the ldquo; promise & rdquo;? At the administrative level, yes. Because there is a limit to what Trump can do at the administrative level, he has basically done all the things he talked about during the campaign, such as establishing BTC strategic reserve (administrative level), setting up special encryption consultant members, firing Gensler, the former chairman of SEC, and deregulating the industry. But on the whole, the promise has not been fully fulfilled, and Trump made it clear during the campaign that he would build the Federal Strategic Reserve (Strategic Federal Reserve) and buy more BTC, which is part of the bill pushed by Senator Cythia Lummis in Congress.

3. Will Trump announce more about BTC reserves or other bullish news? It is possible that he will be the keynote speaker at the White House encryption summit to be held in the early hours of tomorrow morning Beijing time. But as mentioned earlier, at the administrative level, there is not much he can do for BTC. The most extreme measure is to order the Ministry of Finance to directly use the Foreign Exchange Stability Fund (The Exchange Stabilization Fund) to buy BTC, which already exists and does not require additional approval from Congress. The goal of the fund is & ldquo; to stabilize the exchange rate of the US dollar & rdquo;. But as I said in my brief analysis of Trump’s promotion of SOL XRP ADA national reserves, Trump’s style is that he likes to make big news with small and broad, low-cost and small means, really spend a lot of effort and break through great resistance, and there is no big return, only high-risk things, and he won’t put his heart into it. Although the use of the Exchange Stability Fund to buy the executive power of BTC theoretically belongs to him, this practical action has gone too far, has caused a lot of trouble, and may also interfere with Senator Cythia Lummis’s push of the bill in Congress (the two actions overlap).

4. What we need to pay attention to is that the main attack of Trump after taking office this time-ldquo; Mania & rdquo; is more obvious, showing wanton behavior to the outside world, hoping to make diplomatic opponents feel that they are a madman who dares to do anything and can do anything, so as to gain political benefits through oppression. Internally, he is constantly trying to expand the boundaries of presidential power through various administrative actions, including, but not limited to, massive cuts and forced downtime of government employees through DOGE, withholding government budgets approved by Congress, and so on. He is practicing the unitary presidential line of ldquo; & rdquo;, is highly obedient to the support of his cabinet team on the one hand, and on the other hand, in July last year, the United States Supreme Court held that President & ldquo Because the minister enjoys absolute immunity from criminal prosecution when he has administrative power, the decision of rdquo; also gives him more strength. Therefore, it does not rule out the possibility that Trump may make more exaggerated promises in the face of a massive backlash from encrypted public opinion, but the landing is also in doubt.

5. The general trend of Bitcoin’s entry into national finance has been blocked, but it is still moving slowly. The key thread we need to focus on remains the promotion of formal federal reserve bills and state bitcoin reserve bills.

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