Podcast Notes| The market is divided, can Bitcoin still reach 150,000?

Avi said that over time, each day becomes more suitable to buy Bitcoin.

Compiled and compiled: Deep Trend TechFlow

Guests: Jonah Van Bourg, crude oil crypto trader;Avi Felman, 1000x Podcast host

Podcast Source: 1000x Podcast

Original title: Are We Still In A Bull Market?

Broadcast date: February 25, 2025

Summary of key points

This podcast mainly discusses the following points:

1. Market shocks and strategies

• Markets are volatile and it is difficult for traders to make profits through traditional methods.

• Shorting has become the main strategy, especially for copycats and projects affected by negative news.

• Bitcoin fluctuates at high levels and the market lacks clear trends.

• BTC may reach US$150,000 by the end of the year.

2. Macro and policy implications

• The stablecoin bill and pre-election uncertainty are seen as potential market catalysts.

• Trump’s policy direction has an important impact on market sentiment and the performance of risky assets.

3. The differentiation between Bitcoin and copycats

• Bitcoin has performed solidly and is regarded as a safe-haven asset.

• Shanzhai was generally weak, but some projects (such as MakerDAO and Solana) experienced short-term fluctuations due to specific events.

4. ETH/BTC trend and Bybit hacking incident

• Bybit suffered a hacking incident, but the market reaction was relatively calm and the price of ETH did not drop significantly.

• ETH’s long-term narratives, such as RWA and stablecoin ecology, may drive its price rebound.

5. future market expectations

• Stabilocin legislation and macro policy changes (such as falling interest rates) may become turning points in the market.

• Shanzhai may usher in the shanzhai season against the backdrop of deregulation.

How to survive shocks?

Avi: Market prices have fluctuated violently this year. The price movements in the past two months have been crazy. How do you deal with this situation?

Jonah：

This year’s market makes it difficult for me to make money the way I used to.The only strategy I can make moneyshort-selling。Attempts to do long Bitcoin were unsuccessful, with Bitcoin’s year-to-date increase of only about 1%. It is even more disastrous to do small amounts of long copycats.

The market now urgently needs a catalyst to push prices up. It feels like the market is in a period of stagnation, sandwiched between Election Day and the passage of some stablecoin bills. I have been following developments in Washington because I think the next big catalyst may emerge from there.

Avi：

Indeed, traders are accustomed to looking for trends. Looking at the daily chart of Bitcoin, you will see that from November to December 17 last year, we experienced a trend rise, followed by a market correction, then two weeks of rise, followed by two weeks of decline. However, there has been little significant market volatility over the past month, and there have been many false breakthroughs during this period.

Bitcoin has approached US$98,000 many times and tried to break through, and has also fallen below US$95,000 many times. In this case, traders will habitually buy or sell at these points. However, the market has now narrowed from a larger range of volatility to a smaller range, and many people are still trying to trade within the previous larger range, when the market has actually entered a consolidation stage.

My advice is, unless you focus onshort-sellingcopycat, or discover somecarry tradeAn opportunity, otherwise now is not a good time to trade.There have indeed been some carry trades that have performed well recently. For example, Tao has performed well and Maker has also performed well recently.

The market value of MakerDAO’s stablecoin USDS began to rise significantly at the beginning of the year, almost doubling from US$5 billion to US$9 billion. This shows that the market is aware that Maker tokens are being minted and used in large quantities. By following the market and doing research, you can find some trading opportunities.

Shorting the current market

Jonah：

I’ve been repeating the same point recently: shorting is still a good strategy in the current market. For example, when a certain project is revealed to be a scam, the currency price may not react yet. If you short at this time, you will have a chance to make a profit, because the currency price will usually fall next.

Avi：

There are indeed some potential opportunities in the current market, as long as you can keep enough attention. Solana, for example, is a typical example, which has been very weak since the beginning of the year.

First, it went from $183 to nearly $300, mainly because Trump launched a meme. When this kind of hype appears, we need to think about how long can this craze last? And how many of the people who buy in the process will hold Solana for the long term? The answer may not be optimistic.

Jonah：

I agree with you. However, I also think this may be a turning point. Some investors may dump Ethereum and switch to Solana as the next L1 option. But overall, core users of cryptocurrencies seem to be tired of the current market, and many are withdrawing. Traders who should have been active driven by news are now exhausted. Their strategy failed to work and the expected copycat season did not arrive, leading to disappointment with the asset class and sell-offs.

Avi：

This is a good observation. Similar trends can be seen on the chart. If you do an interesting study, you can see how many coins have actually increased in price since Trump was elected.

Jonah：

Probably very little.Current market conditions are neither simplebull market, it is not simplebear market, but the two coexist. Bitcoin is still in a bull market, but many other currencies are experiencing fierce bear markets.The crypto industry seems to be struggling to cope with this fragmentation because we still use the word crypto to generically describe all assets, while Bitcoin is seen as the benchmark for the entire market.

Avi：

It does. This divergence makes me more optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin and other mainstream currencies. If you can persevere in a bear market, there will be more opportunities in the future. Markets usually peak when there are no buyers, and now we are in the fear zone of the fear and greed index, even though Bitcoin is close to all-time highs. This makes me feel that once we get through this downturn, there is still huge room for growth in the future.

Jonah：

I think once the stablecoin bill is passed, many Web 2.0 companies will begin to deploy in the encryption field, and the market may usher in a new round of prosperity. But until then, crypto investors eager for success may continue to be disappointed. We don’t have the joy of making quick profits now as we used to because the market environment is completely different.

Bitcoin underperforms

Avi：

From a technical analysis, Bitcoin has performed poorly recently. A few days ago, Bitcoin fell below the MA100, and on Friday, this moving average had become a strong resistance level. Generally speaking, MA can be used as an important indicator to measure market momentum. When investing or trading Bitcoin, the two most critical points are judging market momentum and looking for price value.Bitcoin is a trend asset, and investors usually follow the trend and buy when the price rises; or choose to enter when they believe the risk-reward ratio is high.

The key is how to judge risk and reward. One way to judge risk-reward is to refer to common price targets in the market.For example, look for a 2:1 risk-reward ratio (i.e., the potential return is twice the risk). For example, before Trump was elected president of the United States, I had predicted that 0 would be an attractive value range,Because the general market goal at the time was $100,000. Investors have a similar logic: If all goes well, Bitcoin is expected to reach $100,000 after Trump is elected. rdquo; While the market may not exceed this goal on the first attempt, investors can set a stop loss below $145,000 to form a reasonable risk management strategy.

The problem now is,What are everyone’s goals for Bitcoin? Where is a reasonable annual goal? How can investors find value ranges and set stop losses?The market consensus I heard was that Bitcoin could reach $150,000. This goal seems more realistic than optimistic forecasts of $250,000 or $500,000. If all goes well, I think it’s possible to reach $150,000 by the end of the year. Based on a 2:1 risk-reward ratio, the stop loss point is around $75,000. If Bitcoin is to rise further, the market will need either at least $20 billion in capital, legislation to promote widespread allocation of Bitcoin, or the federal government’s large-scale purchase of Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Otherwise, the price of bitcoin may continue to move sideways.

Another way to judge value is to observe how long the price of Bitcoin stays within a certain range. If prices can stay above $90,000 for three to six weeks, many investors may consider this a reasonable trading range and look for buying opportunities between $85,000 and $90,000.Bitcoin once traded sideways for 200 days (nearly half a year) in the 2024 range, which led investors to believe that range was a stable value point. Currently, Bitcoin only stays in the US$90,000 range for 92 days, and it may take another 90 days to form a new value perception.

So my view is that as time goes by, each day becomes more suitable to buy Bitcoin, but I am not in a hurry to buy in large quantities.

When will the turning point in market sentiment come?

Jonah：

If you have a short investment time frame, there is no need to rush to enter at all. But if you have a long time frame, you may need to seize the opportunity instead. If state governments in the United States start allocating Bitcoin, the total assets managed by state and local government pension systems will be very large, totaling as high as 6.25 trillion yuan, while the assets managed by public pension funds in the United States will be as high as 30 trillion yuan. If they decide to allocate 1% of their funds to Bitcoin, that will mean tens of billions of dollars in capital inflows, which is a very large number.

We tend to focus too much on whether the federal government will reserve Bitcoin and ignore the potential impact of local governments and pension funds. I think that over time, more and more funds will gradually flow into the Bitcoin market.It is this gradual injection of funds that gives me confidence in Bitcoin.

We may suddenly see a crazy rise in the market, but the reasons behind this are unclear. This has also happened in other asset classes. Capital inflows may turn from trickling to gushing out, and then prices break through.

However, there is currently a strange emotional gap between Bitcoin and other assets. Bitcoin has shown strong adaptability and bright prospects, while other assets appear relatively depressed. I think that when people despair of copycats in the darkest moments, it is often the moment before the dawn of the market.

Avi：

I am actually very optimistic about Bitcoin’s dominance compared to copycats. The current market environment is very favorable for Bitcoin’s performance.

There are two reasons. First, copycats have experienced a significant pullback, and the prices of many copycats have wiped out almost all of the Trump-era gains. At current prices, selling pressure has been significantly reduced because many people are out. I observed that some copycats rebounded by 20%-30% after hitting bottom on February 9, but then all retreated. At present, the prices of these copycats have rebounded to the level on February 9, and there may be not many copycat sellers on the market.

I still own some copycats, although they are smaller in size than last week, but I think they have excellent teams and products behind them. However, historical experience shows that assets that perform well during downturns often lose their advantage when they rise because they attract too much capital in the short term, limiting subsequent performance. Unless assets like LTC can be quickly approved by ETFs, their performance may be limited.

Jonah：

Your opinion is indeed a counter-intuitive narrative. We usually think that highly liquid assets will perform poorly in downturns because market declines lead to reduced trading activity and reduced liquidity.

Avi：

This is a good theory, but actual market behavior is not the case. When markets fall, liquid assets actually perform better because investors tend to view them as safe havens. However, as markets recover, funds may be dispersed from these safe assets and into other areas.

BTC in a multipolar world

Jonah：

On Friday, Standard & Poor’s 500 futures fell sharply, the largest decline since 2025. Although the stock market has experienced similar sharp fluctuations in 2024, overall, the market has become more unstable. In contrast, Bitcoin did not collapse like the Standard & Poor’s 500, but appeared relatively stable. Of course, this is only a day’s data and we cannot over-interpret it.

Avi：

This is a very interesting phenomenon. Judging from the technical chart, Bitcoin is performing quite well relative to Nasdaq and seems to have found a bottom. Currently, the ratio of Bitcoin to Nasdaq is 4.43, and the bottom is around 4.35. We have seen a slight pullback on the weekly chart before, with a low of 4.25, but the overall weekly chart looks very solid and has a reasonable stop. Although I can’t say exactly why Bitcoin performed so well, I think it may have something to do with the reason why the stock market performed poorly.

What do you think are the reasons for the poor performance of the stock market?

Jonah：

The decline in the stock market was mainly related to the market’s fear of tariffs.Although this is only one day’s data, Bitcoin did not collapse in this situation, which gives us some inspiration. If a major trade war breaks out in the future, Bitcoin may be traded in a new way more like an alternative reserve currency than a risky asset affected by trade barriers and tariffs.

In a multipolar world, as the global economic landscape gradually shifts from a single dollar system to diversification, there is a real need for a non-dollar alternative reserve currency. Bitcoin may be one such option.

Although it’s too early to draw conclusions, I get excited whenever Bitcoin performs well in situations similar to tariff fears.

As traders, one of our biggest dreams is to make a profit in those rare market moments that may only occur every two to four years. For example, 2020 and 2022 are such moments for oil traders. For Bitcoin, now may be such an opportunity.

If a major trade war does break out in the future and stock markets collapse, governments may start accumulating Bitcoin at the federal level and adding it to balance sheets or central bank reserves to support global trade. In a multipolar world, if the spheres of influence of China, the United States, Russia and Europe gradually diverge, non-dollar-denominated transactions in global trade could increase significantly.

Currently, only a few countries such as Iran, Venezuela and North Korea rely on Bitcoin for transactions. But if the global political landscape changes significantly and NATO’s alliance is recalibrated, more and more countries may need Bitcoin to complete international transactions. In this case, demand for Bitcoin will no longer be limited to a few peripheral countries, but will expand to more mainstream economies, and as this demand increases, the price of Bitcoin may also rise significantly.

If this happens, Bitcoin will no longer be just a Beta for the stock market, but become a true Alpha, an asset that surpasses market performance, which will be a glory moment for the cryptocurrency market.

Trump’s Impact on Markets

Avi：

Why is the stock market performing poorly, but Bitcoin performing well? I think it boils down to one word, and that is uncertainty.Before Trump took office, I thought he would be very good for the business environment, such as cutting regulations, creating a level business environment, and attracting large amounts of investment into the United States. But it turns out thatTrump’s performance is more unpredictable than many expected.During his second term, his behavior became more radical, adopting many unexpected policies.

For example, from the potential layoffs of a million federal workers to the imposition of tariffs on countries such as Canada, measures that were originally thought to be just campaign slogans have become reality. In addition, issues such as Trump’s relationship with Russia and his cold attitude towards European allies have also made markets uneasy. Markets have always abhor uncertainty, and Bitcoin does not seem to be afraid of such chaos. On the contrary, Bitcoin has performed more strongly as the global situation becomes increasingly uncertain. Companies are trying to adapt to a uncertain future, but Bitcoin seems to be announcing:“Chaos is a good thing for me.& rdquo;

In the past, countries such as the European Union, Canada and Mexico may wait for the U.S.’s attitude towards Bitcoin before making a decision. But now, countries tend to prefer independent decision-making,This makes Bitcoin’s role in geopolitics even more important.If you think the United States will support Bitcoin, you should enter early. The current world is becoming more confrontational. This situation may be good for Bitcoin, but it is undoubtedly a bigger challenge for the stock market.

Jonah：

This should remain in the mind of every crypto trader, because Bitcoin is actually a macro asset. During Trump’s first term, the stock market hit record highs repeatedly, which everyone called the Trump Market. He always boasts on Twitter about how the stock market has performed during his tenure. However, he may have changed his goals and the stock market is no longer his core indicator. If his focus shifts to lowering the yield on the ten-year Treasury note, it could be bad news for the crypto market.

Avi: Why reducerate of returnBad for the crypto market?

Jonah：

If he only focused on stabilizing bond markets and ensuring that America’s sovereign credit was as solid as possible,That means ending deficit spending and the state of governments releasing large amounts of cash. This could lead to tightening of the money supply,This would weaken liquidity in capital markets and curb demand for speculative assets. What the crypto market needs is a loose monetary environment, and Bitcoin typically performs well when the M1 money supply (i.e., cash and demand deposits in circulation) increases significantly, but is suppressed under tightening policies.

Avi: But he has said many times that his goal is to lower interest rates.

Jonah：

I think he is more concerned about the decline in short-term interest rates than the adjustment in ten-year yields. If the United States adopts sovereign austerity policies similar to Greece’s in 2012 and improves its balance sheet by cutting federal spending, this could have a huge impact on markets. However, I don’t think Trump will follow this path entirely.

Trump’s presidential term plan

Jonah：

During Trump’s first term, he paid close attention to stock market performance and regarded it as his key performance indicator (KPI). The biggest concern, however, is that he may adopt extreme austerity policies and send the government into a painful recession. However, I think the final result may fall into an intermediate state.

Trump may notice the performance of the stock market during Biden’s tenure. For example, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index hit record highs many times, with an overall increase of more than 20%. But these achievements did not bring much political dividend to Biden. On the contrary, inflation has made the middle class dissatisfied and housing prices have become increasingly unaffordable. Based on these lessons, Trump may avoid plunging the country into complete austerity, but he will not push the stock market all his might. I think we will enter a compromise.

I think he will take this into account and may not let the country go into a state of austerity, but he will not go all out to promote the stock market.

Trump may lay off a large number of government workers, leading to higher unemployment and a slack in the labor market. Such changes may trigger fluctuations in risky assets. Risky assets usually refer to high-yield but high-risk investments such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, and their prices are easily affected by policies and market sentiment.

This impact may affect multiple areas. For example, my mother’s neighbor was a neuroscientist working at the University of California, Berkeley, whose research project had just been cut from funding by the NIH. This is the first time in decades that this has occurred, frustrating many researchers. Similar funding cuts could lead to the departure of professors, the suspension of research projects, and further loss of jobs. At the government level, a reduction in federal-government-related jobs will also affect the housing market, as unemployed people may sell their homes rather than buy them.

Next, I think Trump may push for negotiations on a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. The move could lead to higher commodity prices, but it could also lower the consumer price index (CPI), easing inflationary pressures.

Avi: If so, now is a good time to buy Russian stocks.

Jonah：

This is true. For example, consider shorting oil prices and liquefied natural gas. I think falling inflation will pave the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. As inflation slows, the prices of risky assets will gradually stabilize, and after interest rates fall, the market may have a real rebound. However, we are still in a painful adjustment stage.

I think the decline in interest rates will push the price of cryptocurrencies up sharply, and the stock market will gradually recover. About 6 to 12 months into Trump’s term, we may see a massive deregulation, which will be a golden age that will be extremely business-friendly.

However, the current business environment is still full of uncertainty, and many people are frustrated about the future. If you are planning to start a business or invest in a business, now may be a great time, as once deregulation begins, the stock and cryptocurrency markets may be in for a carnival.

At the same time, the productivity improvement of AI technology will gradually emerge in this process. We discussed the potential for in-depth research last week, and I believe that the application of AI will bring continued cost reductions (i.e., deflationary effects) and further push stock and cryptocurrency prices to new highs. Against such a super-bullish market backdrop, Trump may take advantage of market optimism to increase the fiscal deficit, raise tariffs again, and achieve his policy goals through a loose capital market environment.

However, this environment could cause the value of corporate bonds and treasury bonds to decline, while Bitcoin could rise further as confidence in the dollar wanes, and we are currently in the first stage of this clear but difficult path.

Avi：

Let’s analyze it point by point. First of all, Trump laid off a large number of government workers, causing unemployment to rise, the labor market to relax, and risk assets to fluctuate. I think the probability is 85%, and then we will see a market correction.

Secondly, regarding the conclusion of a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, I checked Polymarket’s forecast data. The probability that a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine will be reached within the next 90 days is 33%, while the probability of holding an election in 2025 is 46%. In addition, the probability that Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement in 2025 is 70%. It seems that my previous judgment on this incident was wrong.

If interest rates fall next, cryptocurrencies may rise sharply and the stock market will gradually recover. However, I am concerned about the inflation data because they may not fully meet our expectations.

Jonah：

If we assume that the first and second points hold true, for example, the unemployment rate rises due to the dismissal of a large number of government workers, and the end of the war in Ukraine, commodity prices, a major component of CPI, will fall sharply. In this case, inflation may ease, and rising unemployment will provide a strong case for the Fed to cut interest rates.

Avi: It depends on the drivers of inflation, especially the impact of commodity prices. If we can see more data, are there other factors driving inflation?

Jonah：

Labor costs are also a key factor. In CPI, energy costs and labor costs are the two main variables. If oil prices fall to US$45 a barrel, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) may launch a price war after the war in Ukraine is over, because the production reduction agreement will expire and excess oil supply may appear on the market.

Avi：

If interest rates fall and energy prices fall, the price of cryptocurrencies will rise and the stock market will gradually recover. In this case, copycats may perform particularly well, while Bitcoin may perform relatively poorly. Because the easing of geopolitical tensions will increase the market’s risk appetite, thereby increasing the demand for copycats.But Bitcoin will also rise in this scenario, and the real winners may be Solana and Ethereum.

Next is massive deregulation, and the stock and cryptocurrency markets will usher in a carnival. This may be a subtle process, not necessarily a separate policy event, but gradually becoming a background factor in the market.

Interestingly, in 2023, someone mentioned on Twitter that AI will have a huge boost to NASDAQ. ChatGPT had just been launched at the time, and no one had yet fully realized its potential. I think our judgment at the time was correct. NASDAQ’s growth did benefit from the widespread use of AI.

I actually have some doubts about the deficit issue. In a world where spending can be cut, why are there persistent deficits?

Jonah：

My view is that if commodity prices continue to fall, as well as deflation and productivity improvements brought by AI, this will not only benefit technology companies, but even traditional companies will benefit by reducing labor costs. The Russell Index and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will also benefit.

In this positive situation, Trump may take measures that are detrimental to the stock market, such as threatening to impose tariffs on hostile countries or disrupt global trade. As for the deficit, if the economy performs well, the government can safely cut taxes and continue spending. But if the economy falls into recession, this approach will not work.

So, I think Trump will cut a lot of redundancies and positions. We know that most government spending is mainly spent in four areas:social protection, health insurance, the defense budget, and now interest payments.These are all difficult to cut. So what Trump can cut may be waste, fraud and abuse, a lot of unnecessary real estate spending and the like. But if you want to cut social protection, Medicare or defense budgets, you will need extensive bipartisan legislation, or even a real transformation in the United States.

So we’re going to be in a deficit world for a while, and if everything else works well, the government will be comfortable with it.

Avi：

I think it will be difficult for Trump to turn back on the deficit issue. One of his core campaign promisesReduce deficits, cut waste, and create economic activity through the private sector。I think he is more likely to take aggressive cuts than to increase spending significantly.

I think taxes could happen in a way greater than spending cuts, and the two levers he could use were cutting a lot of spending and lowering taxes to balance the budget. What he is very concerned about is managing the U.S. economy like a business.

Jonah：

If what you say is right, as an American patriot, I hope you are right, but as a Bitcoin holder, I hope you are not right. If he cuts the budget sharply to achieve balance, it will be a real recession. Markets will collapse because deficit spending now accounts for 7% of GDP. If you cut this to 2% or 0%, it would be terrible.

Avi：

I don’t mean that we continue to have deficits every year, but that deficits will widen. So I think he’s actually unlikely to balance the budget, just saying he’s unlikely to do anything to accelerate the growth of the deficit.

Jonah：

My conclusion is this:try to avoidbondsInvesting,short-sellingCommodity markets, long stocks and bitcoin, which I think is my ideal portfolio composition.

In addition, I had not seriously considered the impact of these situations on shanzhai before. But you made a good point: If these trends do happen, we could have a very strong copycat season. Especially in the context of deregulation, these copycats may perform particularly well.

Bybit hacked: ETH/BTC market reaction

Avi：

The scale of Bybit’s hacking incident is shocking, but Bybit’s attitude towards this incident is very calm. Although this was a large-scale exchange hacking incident, no users seemed to have suffered financial losses as a result. Bybit seems to be actively dealing with this issue, and their operational capabilities are impressive.

However, what interests me most is the market reaction of ETH/BTC. When I saw the headlines, my first reaction was to short ETH and sell some of my positions. Sure enough, the price of ETH fell by about 2% in a short period of time. But to my surprise, ETH then rebounded quickly and remained at that level without falling further. The price of BTC even increased by 1%-1.5% that day compared with before the incident.

This market performance is very abnormal. Theoretically, if $1.5 billion in funds were stolen by hackers, the market should experience greater fluctuations. However, the price of ETH did not hit a bottom, indicating that no one in the market seemed willing to continue selling ETH.

I have also recently studied some developments regarding ETH. According to reports, there are currently 50 non-encryption companies developing Ethereum-based projects. However, most projects are limited to the NFT field, and there is not much really exciting content. The only interesting thing is that Lamborghini has launched an NFT project related to the metaverse, but this is no longer the core of the Ethereum ecosystem.

However, it is worth noting thatMost RWA-related activities are still concentrated on Ethereum. RWA is an important part of the stablecoin ecosystem and represents the second stage of the financial system’s transition to cryptocurrencies. Stable coins are the first step, and RWA is the second step. Next, companies issue tokens and truly decentralize agreements.I think this may lead to a short squeeze in the ETH market in the next year (that is, short covering causes prices to rise rapidly). If this happens, ETH may perform better than BTC and may even return to the ETH/BTC exchange rate level of 0.4.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this happens next month. According to trading rules of thumb: Good news cannot push the market up, the market will not rise; bad news cannot push the market down, and the market will not fall. At present, ETH prices seem to have stabilized.

Jonah: But I have a question. Why do you think this rebound will happen within a month? Legislation related to stablecoins may take two to six months to pass, which will bring a large inflow of funds to ETH. In addition, if a North Korean hacker holds a large amount of ETH in his hands, he may choose to sell it in exchange for cash. Will this put pressure on the market?

Avi：

The two factors you mentioned are indeed worth considering. The first is that Bybit may need to repurchase ETH to deal with liquidity problems, which will have a direct impact on the market. The second is that the price trend of ETH may be affected by short-term market behavior, such as whether hackers choose to sell.

Overall, my attitude towards ETH is cautiously optimistic. First, ETH is backed by an actual market narrative, which usually attracts investors ‘attention before the event occurs. Secondly, the price of ETH did not fall further after the hacking incident, indicating that selling pressure in the market has weakened.

I think traders like us will realize this and may reconfigure some ETH positions a little.

Jonah：

I just feel uneasy buying ETH.

Avi：

Over the past year, I have used ETH as a short asset in almost all my transactions because it has always increased less than other assets, but fell more. But now, I won’t be shorting ETH again for at least the next month. I believe that many traders may also stop shorting ETH at current levels.

Jonah: So what assets do you use now as short assets to hedge risk?

Avi：Solana, on March 1st, there may be $2 billion in SOL unlocked.

Jonah：

Some of these unlocked assets may have been digested by the market in advance. Unlike events like ETFs or Trump elections, unlocking events cannot be reflected in prices in advance by purchasing enough assets. Investors can choose to sell before unlocking or not buy more Solana. Suppose the total unlocked amount is US$2 billion, of which US$1 billion is sold. Of this $1 billion, 50 million may have been sold directly at market prices, while $250 million may have been absorbed in advance through the market. So I don’t think this is the end of Solana, but I agree that now is definitely not a good time to step in and buy Solana in large quantities.

 

Original link: www.youtube.com/watch? v=xUlmvWQPTjY

 

 

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