GuShiio.com The performance of the launch of tokens launched on DEX and with an FDV value of more than US$30 million is comparable to that of the launch on the mid-sized CEX.
Author: Animoca Brands Research
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
This report analyzes more than 3,000 spot token launch events on 9 major centralized exchanges (CEXs) and more than 120 decentralized exchanges (DEXs) in 2024. The purpose is to evaluate the overall trend of token launches on each platform, and evaluate the price and transaction volume performance of tokens during these events.
main findings
Centralized exchanges use different strategies to determine launch priorities, focusing on different fully diluted valuation (FDV) levels. Exchanges with fewer listings tend to prioritize tokens with a larger FDV (over $500 million), while exchanges with higher listings tend to favor tokens with an FDV of less than $30 million.
Online activity is closely related to Bitcoin’s price trend. Activity increases during bull markets and decreases when Bitcoin’s rise stagnates. While all FDV-sized tokens are affected by this trend, large FDV tokens are more sensitive to changes in market sentiment.
Price performance, measured as 7-day and 30-day changes relative to the price at the end of the launch day, largely reflects Bitcoin price trends, but differences do exist between exchanges. A “smile curve” pattern emerged: Exchanges with the highest (e.g. Binance) and lowest (e.g. MEXC) listed FDV on average recorded positive price changes, while mid-sized exchanges (e.g. Bybit, Bitget) experienced the largest declines.
In terms of trading volume, Binance leads the way in trading volume of newly launched tokens, followed by OKX and Upbit. It is worth noting that Upbit’s trading volume in the first 24 hours is comparable to Binance, while OKX leads the way in token trading volume at the $30 million to $100 million FDV level.
The performance of the launch of tokens launched on DEX and with an FDV value of more than US$30 million is comparable to that of the launch on the mid-sized CEX. The price performance of initial tokens on DEX (measured as changes from day 2 to day 7 and day 30) is better than 4 of 5 mid-sized CEXs. Trading volumes in the first 30 days are also similar to or higher than CEXs such as Kucoin, Gate and MEXC.
It is not uncommon for DEX IPO tokens to later appear on mid-sized CEXs, but it is not common for them to appear on large CEXs. Among the DEX initial tokens sampled in the second half of 2024, about 16% of the tokens were subsequently launched on CEX, and only 2% of the tokens were successfully launched on large exchanges such as Binance, OKX or Upbit.
CEX Online performance
overview
The report recorded a total of 3,074 token launch events. 1226 events (40%) were identified as primary listings and were launched within the first 2 days of the token release; while 1848 events (60%) were identified as secondary listings.
Most exchanges have adopted a balanced approach, with almost equal proportions of participating in primary and secondary listings.
In general, exchanges that list high FDV projects focus on fewer, large-scale launches, while exchanges that launch smaller FDV projects have more coin listings.
Two South Korean exchanges, Upbit and Bithumb, are mainly focused on secondary listings. Due to the practices of these exchanges, primary listings may not be the first time they have been launched. In the rest of this article, exchanges will be ranked according to their average listing FDV, with exchanges with high listing FDV being called “large exchanges” and the rest being called “mid-sized exchanges.”
Monthly summary of currency listing events
There were more coin listing events during bull markets (February to March and August to December), while the number of coin listing events decreased during market downturns.
April was a prominent month. Despite the reversal of BTC prices, currency listings continued to climb. The impact was not evident in December, when BTC stalled again after two months of gains.
In terms of the number of listing events, top exchanges are less affected by the bear market, which is reflected in the expanding share of listing events during these periods.
according to FDV Summarize currency deposit events
Large exchanges concentrate most of their trading work on the FDV category above US$500 million, with the top four exchanges accounting for 25% of this level of trading activity.
Despite this, mid-sized exchanges still contribute most of the listing activity in categories above US$500 million, which may be because projects on large exchanges are usually co-listed on mid-sized exchanges, but vice versa is rare.
Mid-sized exchanges such as Bybit, KuCoin, Bitget and Gate have a more balanced currency volume across the four FDV levels, with a slightly larger share of US$30 million to US$500 million. MEXC adopts a different strategy, focusing on tokens with FDV ≤ US$30 million, accounting for 70% of coin activity in this category.
according to FDV Classification of monthly currency deposit events
The FDV level above $500 million is most vulnerable to changes in market sentiment, with coin listing events increasing rapidly during the February to March rebound, exceeding expectations in April, and then contracting until the September to December rebound.
The FDV level of ≤ $30 million closely tracks overall listing momentum during bull markets, but accounts for a larger share of listing events during periods such as June to September.
Currency price performance
The price performance of each exchange forms a “smile curve”, with the tokens at both ends of the curve performing better than the tokens in the middle.
The prices of tokens launched by Binance and MEXC at both ends showed positive changes after 30 days, while the average prices launched by Bybit and Bitget dropped by about 10%.
The 7-day price performance showed a similar pattern, with Binance trading up about 3%, MEXC trading basically flat, and the intermediate exchange falling significantly.
The median price change is usually lower than the average, indicating that a small number of token listing events account for the majority.
accordance with FDV Level summary price performance
Depending on the FDV rating, the 7-day and 30-day price change patterns are different.
FDV-rated tokens with ≤ $30 million fell in price after 7 days, but rebounded strongly on the 30th day, showing the largest contrast among the four grades. The $300 – 100 million and $500 million FDV-rated tokens showed a moderate decline in prices after seven days and remained at similar levels for 30 days on average.
The $100 million-$500 million FDV-rated tokens fell 2% in the first seven days, but the decline widened to more than 11% on the 30th day, indicating an overall downward trend after the first week.
Monthly summary of price performance of the listed currency
From a time perspective, price performance is mainly driven by market conditions. During the BTC bull market, token listings performed neutral or positive. During the BTC bear market, token listings performed negatively.
Monthly performance of currency prices on various exchanges
In February, October and November, price changes on most exchanges remained positive, while BTC prices rose significantly.
January and May deviate from the overall BTC price trend: although BTC is about to rebound, token prices launched in January performed poorly; although May was in a slow bear market, tokens launched in May performed well.
Although the market is neutral, the price of tokens launched in December performed poorly.
Each exchange by FDV Level summary currency price performance
Compared with large exchanges such as OKX and Bybit, small FDV token listing activity performs better on mid-sized exchanges such as KuCoin, Gate and MEXC.
Mid-sized FDV token listings ($30 million to $500 million) outperformed mid-sized exchanges on large exchanges. The listing activity of large FDV tokens ($500 million) performed relatively uniformly across exchanges, with little price fluctuations from day 7 to day 30.
according to FDV Monthly performance of listed currency prices by rank
Small FDV tokens showed strong price performance, with a 30-day price change rate better than medium FDV tokens (US$30 million to US$500 million) in most months, regardless of whether the market conditions were bull or bear markets.
Mid-sized FDV tokens experienced strong seven-day price increases in October and November, but still trailed other categories at 30 days.
Large FDV tokens showed greater consistency over a few months, with 7-day and 30-day prices showing positive in half of the months.
Exchange trading volume
Binance leads the way in terms of new online token trading volume, followed by Upbit and OKX. Upbit’s trading volume in the first 24 hours was strong, almost on par with Binance, but 30-day trading volume fell back to levels similar to OKX.
Among mid-sized exchanges, Bybit posted strong trading volume in the first 24 hours and throughout the 30 days.
Monthly summary of trading volume
Initial listing volume largely follows the bear/bull market cycle, with higher initial listing volume during the period February to March and September to December.
In April, a month after the first wave of price increases, currency listing activity exceeded expectations, but transaction volume fell below the 30-day average. This suggests that too much coin placement during relatively calm times may dilute the trading volume of newly listed tokens.
according to FDV Level trading volume
The transaction volume basically follows the level of the token FDV. Compared with the minimum FDV level, the transaction volume of the maximum FDV level in the first 24 hours is 60 times that of the minimum FDV level, and the transaction volume in the first 30 days is 25 times that of the minimum FDV level.
Monthly summary of trading volume by exchange
For most months, Binance leads the way in terms of trading volume of newly listed tokens. Upbit’s newly listed tokens show high uncertainty in terms of initial transaction volume.
Although it leads the way in 30-day trading volume in February, July and December, there were also several months when trading volume for new online tokens was very low.
Each exchange by FDV Level trading volume
The transaction volume of Bin-to-coin is the largest, mainly concentrated in the FDV category of US$100 million to US$500 million.
On the other hand, OKX’s intermediate FDV token trading volume is significant (US$30 million to US$100 million).
Among mid-sized exchanges, Bybit’s trading volume in all FDV levels is relatively stable, while on other mid-sized exchanges, trading volume is usually concentrated on mid-sized FDV tokens.
DEX vs CEX
DEX listings are usually regarded as a supplement to CEX listings. DEX’s liquidity pool is often created at the same time as the initial CEX listing, allowing users the flexibility to trade on-chain or through CEX. On the other hand, just launching DEX is often associated with a more decentralized approach, mainly used by long-tail tokens with limited mainstream appeal.
However, recently, more and more projects have chosen DEX as their only initial launch platform, postponing or abandoning the launch of CEX for a period of time. To assess the feasibility and impact of this strategy, this paper analyzed relevant data and indicators to compare DEX and CEX.
To ensure objective comparison, DEX coins are defined as coins that exclusively remain liquid on a decentralized exchange for at least 30 days. For CEX listing, focus on the primary listing event, which represents the introduction of a centralized exchange as its main trading venue for tokens. In order to avoid deviations in the results of long-tail tokens, the scope of the analysis is limited to tokens with an FDV between US$30 million and US$500 million to ensure balance between the two sets of tokens.
When measuring price performance, use the percentage price change from Day 2 to Day 7 and Day 2 to Day 30, rather than the time period from launch to Day 7 or Day 30. This adjustment takes into account the different price discovery mechanisms between CEX and DEX on the day of launch, otherwise direct comparisons will be ineffective. For trading volume, maintain a consistent approach, using trading volume in the previous 24 hours and 30 days as key indicators.
Summary of marketing events:DEX with CEX
The analysis sampled 415 major coin listing events that occurred in the second half of 2024, focusing on tokens with fully diluted valuations (FDV) between US$30 million and US$500 million. Of these, 114 are classified as priority DEX listings, which means that the tokens are only listed on DEX in the first month.
In August, the launch of DEX demonstrated a pickup in activity in the fourth quarter after a downturn that was more sensitive to market momentum. In the third quarter, priority DEX listings accounted for less than 20% of new tokens, but by November and December, that proportion soared to more than 30%.
Most of the CEX listings in this analysis are concentrated on mid-sized exchanges. On the other hand, Binance and OKX have only a few coin listings.
DEX with CEX Price changes at the time of initial launch
In the medium CEX, performance from days 2 to 7 was mixed. By the 30th day, the prices of all listed tokens except those on MEXC showed negative changes.
In contrast, tokens listed on DEX for the first time showed positive growth on day 7 and declined slightly on day 30, outperforming most mid-sized CEX listed tokens.
OKX led the price performance among large CEXs, with listed tokens rising by approximately 14% from day 2 to day 7 and maintaining this level after 30 days. However, due to the limited amount of data, the performance of Binance and OKX should be interpreted with caution.
DEX with CEX Average transaction volume for initial listings
DEX trading volumes are comparable to mid-sized CEXs such as KuCoin, Gate and MEXC, and OKX and Binance have higher average trading volumes than other exchanges.
The trading volume concentration of DEX and CEX in the first 24 hours showed a similar pattern, indicating the same trend of market attention.
This trading volume performance, coupled with price performance 30 days after launch, suggests that the impact of an initial DEX listing on token performance is comparable to that of a mid-sized CEX.
Token listing hierarchy analysis
A total of 238 tokens were covered by the 415 sample coin placement events. Among them, 126 tokens were initially listed only on DEX, while the rest were listed on medium-or large-scale centralized exchanges. It should be noted that the DEX listed tokens included in the analysis are limited to those indexed on CoinMarketCap.
About 16% of the tokens originally listed on DEX were later listed on CEX, mainly in the mid-sized CEX category. However, only 2% of the tokens launched on DEX subsequently received support on top CEXs such as Binance, Upbit or OKX. For tokens launched on mid-sized CEXs, about 3% will eventually launch high-FDV CEXs, which is similar to the likelihood of tokens launched on DEX.
These findings suggest that while there is a considerable opportunity for preferred DEX tokens to be listed on CEX, they are most likely to be available on mid-sized exchanges. Whether the token starts as a DEX or a mid-sized CEX, the probability of a mid-sized FDV token entering the top CEX remains low.
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