I can’t wait for Apple’s folding screen to tell a new story

Wen| Noise reduction

As the world’s largest and most important folding-screen mobile phone market, China users are gradually withdrawing their preference for it.

The narrative logic of this mobile phone form, which was once highly expected, has quietly changed. Consulting firm DSCC reported that in Q3 of 2024, the growth rate of global folding screen panel shipments fell year-on-year for the first time, with a drop of as much as 38%. Reflecting in the end market, global shipments of folding-screen mobile phones fell by 1% year-on-year in the quarter, ending six consecutive quarters of growth. In Q4 of 2024, China’s shipments of folding-screen mobile phones were 2.5 million units, down 9.6% year-on-year for the first time after nine consecutive quarters of rapid growth.

Almost since its birth, the folding screen has a trace of sadness. Not so much innovation, it is more like a collective struggle of mobile phone manufacturers when smart phone innovation is weak. The folding screen, which serves as a shield, can never get rid of its “useless” destiny.

Although people’s exploration of folding screens has begun twenty years ago. At MWC in 2006, Dutch company Polymer Vison demonstrated the rollable and foldable concept e-book Readius, which provided inspiration for later foldable screen phones. Not until 2018, the world’s first mass-produced horizontal folding screen mobile phone was released by Rouyu Technology. As a mobile phone screen manufacturer, the concept promotion of this mobile phone is far greater than the product itself, so it does not attract much attention.

In February 2019, Samsung released the world’s first mass-produced folding-screen mobile phone, Galaxy Fold, for a wide range of consumers. In the same month, Huawei released the Huawei Mate X at the MWC2019 Brazil Exhibition. At this point, folding screens have officially entered the public eye.

But controversy also accompanies the whole time. Once the Galaxy Fold was released, it was recalled due to reasons such as gray on the hinge, screen failure, and immature technology. These flaws have not been well resolved to this day.

“For example, the touch screen replaced the 9 and 26 buttons for the first time, and the second time directly canceled the three function buttons. Both are functional innovations that can directly erase the previous generation, but the folding screen does not have this ability.” In the view of senior digital enthusiast Mou Hang, the fact that folding screens can still be discussed just proves that the ceiling of mobile phone hardware innovation has reached. Just like the AI photography and generative AI that manufacturers have been wildly promoting in the past year,”basically declares that they will not be in optics and sensors. There is too much investment in the direction of sensors.”

Too many folding screen users cannot use the internal screen

“Noise Reduction” interviewed many folding screen users and found that people complained about this product and were full of regrets.

User Mika told “Noise Reduction” that he bought the folding screen to watch videos and comics, which, to put it bluntly, was entertainment. Later, it was discovered that watching a 16:9 film on a folding screen was not much larger than a large-screen bar machine, and the upper and lower black edges were very large, which made the experience not good. Another detail is that because entertainment time only accounts for less than one-fifth of the time she uses her mobile phone, she does not turn on the internal screen most of the time.

▲ Google pixel 9 folding screen mobile phone with big black edge touching

Although it may sound outrageous, this is almost a cold knowledge recognized by the mobile phone industry: that is, many folding screen users will not open their phones to use the internal screen.

Manufacturers also know this. Previously, Xiaomi MIX Fold4 launched the promotion of “External screens can be used for a whole day”, which was once complained by users: Since the external screens can be used for a whole day, why buy folding screens?

Internal screens are rarely used, forcing families to come up with functions such as split screens, multiple applications, and floating opening to adapt to users ‘usage habits. However, digital blogger Tianma told us that because these operations are very deep and not practical, they are actually very few Users know about these interactions.

In addition to the interactive level, the thickness of folding screens has always been the most important part of all manufacturers. Thin and thin means that performance is also sacrificed while giving up the thickness of the original device. It is understood that most folding screens currently on the market use previous generation processors. Not only the performance and original components of the cooling system, mechanical layout, battery and other components must compromise the thickness of the folding screen.

This is a natural shortcoming in the industrial design of folding screens and is almost inevitable. This also causes the manufacturing cost of folding screens to be much higher than that of straight plates, because the original components cannot be universally used, the cost is high, and it will be much more expensive during maintenance.

Among folding screen repairs, the motherboard is the most expensive, followed by the screen. Take Huawei Pocket 2 as an example. Its 256GB motherboard is 3299 yuan, and the 512GB motherboard is 3699 yuan. This is the core part of the whole machine. The screen price is about 3000 yuan, accounting for almost half of the selling price.

Secondly, maintenance takes special effort and requires high requirements on maintenance majors. Some maintenance masters once complained,”The dismantling of the screen inside the folding screen usually takes up more than 50% of the entire maintenance time, and the remaining 70% of the maintenance progress is in the dismantling and installation of this large screen.”

In short, behind the high premium of folding screens, appearance and performance cannot be combined.

During the Spring Festival, some netizens posted folding screens to the Northeast and turned them into “crispy ice cream”, which quickly triggered a lot of discussion. Previously, Samsung, OPPO and others emphasized in their propaganda that the machines had undergone low-temperature folding tests. Samsung said that its foldable screen OLED screen can theoretically be folded 30,000 times at-20℃, but from the actual results, the folding screen is fragile. May exceed expectations.

Of course, folding screens are not useless. For high-end business groups, folding screens are one of their few options. In the business circle, folding screens have certain social attributes. Apple phones are not recognizable, but folding screens are different. In addition to making people have money and resources, they can also easily open social topics with others.

It is said that business people use folding screens to read reports and documents, but the above-mentioned interviewees said that he had observed friends in the surrounding financial circles and had never seen them turn on the internal screens. Even the airport terminal, where business people frequented the most, had hardly seen folding screens.

Mika frankly said that in the future, he will not consider large folding when replacing the machine, and may choose a small folding or straight machine. Mou Hang told us,”The area of an extra screen is not enough for me to pay a premium of 80%; there is innovation, but not innovation to the extent that it will definitely be replaced.”

The suspense of Apple’s entry

It doesn’t matter how the outside world criticizes the folding screen. What people really care about is when Apple will enter the game.

“When Apple comes out with folding screens one day, folding screens will become mainstream.” There is a view that whether the curved screen is small or double folded, as long as Apple does not follow, it will be abandoned by the times or become used by a niche group.

Recently, foreign media reported that Apple may launch a dual-folding mobile phone next year, which is expected to be equipped with Apple’s own modem. Counterpoint predicts that Apple is expected to enter the folding screen market in the second half of 2026. With its dominant position in the flagship smartphone market, it will bring significant growth to the folding screen mobile phone market.

People are more suspicious of this “wolf is here” news than expectations. After all, this is not the first time such rumors have been heard. As early as 2023, there was news that Apple was focusing on developing a folding screen iPad and would release it as early as the second half of 2024. It was revealed that Apple has been developing folding screen products and changing designs for the past four years. Before launching a folding iPhone, a folding screen iPad will be launched first, but because Apple is worried about issues such as folding panels and screen creases, it will consider cooperating with Samsung Display and others.

▲ Bloomberg reporter broke the news about the folding screen iPad

A person close to the upstream supply chain revealed to “Noise Reduction” that based on its previous understanding of the supply chain, Apple has indeed verified folding screens and has in-depth contact and promotion with suppliers such as screens and industrial design. But behind these substantial developments, Apple has never brought a mature product to the market.

Many users and domestic manufacturers seem to have reached a consensus that folding-screen phones will have very obvious traces after one or two years of use, which may be difficult for Apple, which pursues the ultimate, to accept.

“After all, many domestic manufacturers don’t make folding screens for mobile phones. They just want to tell everyone about my design capabilities. I can make a mobile phone so thin and hold so many industrial parts.” The above-mentioned people believe that for most domestic manufacturers, folding screens are just to “show off muscles,” but Apple obviously does not need them.

Mika told “Noise Reduction” that she felt Huawei was too attractive to women, but in fact, women’s acceptance of vertical folding products was still very high. If Apple produces a vertically folded phone, she is willing to buy it, and she believes that penetration will increase significantly in a short period of time.

“Apple’s folding screen may be better, but it won’t change the overall trend.” An industry insider who declined to be named said he judged that Apple was more likely to eventually give up folding screens. The production of folding screens requires a lot of investment in both hardware and software, but Apple’s product line is very stable. Whether it is a small-screen digital series or a high-performance large-screen Pro Max series, it is available in various size, so there is no need to insert another folding screen in the middle. The folding screen will obviously divert the original iPad mini market. “Moreover, Apple’s influence on the entire industry is not as great as it used to be.” he said.

Apple once launched the Vision Pro and stopped production, and Byte Pico did not work hard to achieve miracles. This shows that innovation at the helm of giants may not necessarily succeed. If VR is a foreseeable trend, folding screens may not carry so much imagination.

Will other manufacturers follow under the shadow of dual strengths?

Because of its inherent flaws, folding screens have always been a product form that is popular but not popular.

In 2023, shipments of folding screen mobile phones in China will be approximately 7 million units, and in 2024 this figure will be approximately 9.17 million units. Although Samsung’s shipments are still acceptable, shipments of the Galaxy Z Fold6 released in 2024 are only single-digit growth compared with the previous generation model. At the same time, Samsung’s purchase amount of folding screen panels is also expected to drop by 20%, which may be The lowest level since 2021.

IDC said that since the introduction of folding-screen phones in 2019, despite five years of rapid development, the market penetration rate is still only 3.2%(in the first three quarters of 2024).

The aforementioned analysts revealed that it is almost certain that no domestic folding screen manufacturers on the market except Huawei make money. In the 2023 Q4 folding screen mobile phone sales ranking, Huawei ranked first in domestic sales with an absolute advantage of 51.23%. Huawei Mate X5 mobile phone alone accounted for 52.37% of sales in major folding categories. By Q3 of 2024, Huawei will continue to rank first in domestic sales with a 41.0% share in the domestic folding screen mobile phone sales ranking.

For other manufacturers, the sales volume of a folding screen product is only hundreds of thousands of units, and the profits are imaginable. Previously, some media searched the official website and JD’s self-operated data and found that Huawei Mate XT’s total online sales may be less than 10,000 units.

Different from straight bar machines, the thickness, crease, and hinge of each generation of folding screens must be greatly improved, otherwise there will be no significance in launching them. Li Gang, a senior analyst at BGD Consulting, told “Noise Reduction” that this leads to higher R & D costs for each generation, but sales are not high. More of the profits of other products are used to subsidize R & D investment in folding screens. “This is the current situation of folding screens for most Android brands in China.”

Previously, Huawei and Samsung once accounted for 70% of the market for folding screen panel purchases. On this originally not fertile track, the absolute advantage of Huawei and Samsung put too much pressure on other manufacturers.

Last year, well-known analyst Guo Minghao said on social platforms that brands other than Huawei are carefully considering whether to stop producing lower-profit up-down (vertical fold) models. Although OPPO and vivo have denied this rumor, the two companies have indeed seen no new vertical folding machines appear in 2024. Liu Zuohu, chief product officer of OPPO, said in an interview with the media that folding products are still in the popularization stage and are still advancing according to plan.

The latest news is that on February 20, 2025, OPPO will release a new large-folding product Find N5, claiming to be the thinnest folding screen in the world. However, in contrast, OPPO sub-brand OnePlus announced that it will suspend the release of new OnePlus Open 2 folding screens this year.

▲ Yijia product manager announced in the user community that he would suspend the release of folding screen mobile phones

Xiaomi released its first vertically folded product, MIX Flip, in 2024. In November last year, it announced a cumulative stock volume of 500,000 units, which is far better than the large-folded MIX Fold 4, which has achieved a huge sales volume. But whether it is the MIX Flip or Xiaomi Car Su7, one of the goals is to attract female users. Therefore, the launch of Xiaomi Small Fold is not so much a competition in the folding screen market as a competition for Xiaomi’s exploration and test of the women’s market.

Of course, there are leading manufacturers who have “support” in the field of folding screens, which prevents other manufacturers from withdrawing easily. Even if the share is not high, everyone will have to hold their own positions.

At present, high-end modernization has almost become the only way out. After all, folding screens always have a relatively loyal customer base. At the end of last year, Tianma spent 24000 yuan on Huawei’s three-fold mobile phone Mate XT. At first, he was curious whether three-fold could solve the problem of double folding, but after using it for a while, he found that three-fold seemed more immature than double folding.

“Its screen is very fragile when unfolded, so it is very unstable to use and I am afraid every day.” Tianma said that Huawei has not made special software adaptations for triple-folding, which results in that although there are three screens, only two screens can actually be viewed, and the efficiency is not much improved.

Four months later, Tianma hung up her mobile phone to Xianyu. What was quite surprising was that there were not many people who were really interested in it. The mobile phone was quickly sold for 18500 yuan, and the value preservation rate was comparable to that of second-hand luxury goods. Tianma told us that not only can the hedging rate be comparable to that of luxury, but even in Huawei stores, this machine is displayed in a glass case. When looking at the machine, the clerk will wear gloves to carry out the machine.

▲ Relevant market prices of Mate XT on idle fish

Like luxury goods, these expensive three-fold mobile phones are hard to find and are out of stock all year round. “They just want to make this a luxury.” he said.

As long as manufacturers continue to toss, folding screens will not soon withdraw from the historical stage. Li Gang believes that in the China market, folding screens and bar machines will coexist for a long time to come. “If the mobile phone industry does not have more forms and opportunities for everyone to shift their attention in the future, folding screens will still be a typical form that various manufacturers are striving to do.” he said.

For example, the OPPO Find N5, which will be launched this year, and Samsung’s first three-fold mobile phone Galaxy G fold, the competition for folding screens continues. Perhaps, before becoming a tear of the times, manufacturers still want to leave people more memories.