Game Industry Forecast for 2025: Disenchanted mobile games, and aging players

Wen| One Entertainment observes the great entertainers.

China’s game industry is undergoing an unprecedented period of change.

On the one hand, some of the winning generals in the hands of major manufacturers have been declining one after another, and the much-awaited new market products are also full of thunder and rain; on the other hand,”Black Myth: Wukong” under the independent brand is a blockbuster. It not only reaches a peak in global sales and becomes a sample of domestic 3A games, but also opens the door for world-class attention with innovative interpretations of China traditional culture and sets off global cultural effects.

As the pace of technological innovation accelerates, more game creative talents surge, the market structure continues to evolve, and traditional game development, operation and profit models are undergoing profound changes.

“2024 China Game Industry Report”

After more than a decade of rapid growth in mobile games, new development characteristics have gradually taken shape. Traditional game manufacturers have adjusted their strategic focus and invested more resources in PCs and host platforms; cloud game technology has become increasingly mature, bringing new possibilities to the industry; The application of AI technology in game development has continued to deepen, improving development efficiency and creating new game experiences; emerging platforms such as VR/AR continue to break through, and the handheld market has regained vitality; independent game brands continue to appear on the table, challenging the big companies ‘right to speak system……

At the same time, changes in the market are also forcing business model innovation, and broader monetization methods such as game subscription services and brand placement advertising are beginning to receive more attention.

On the user side, as the earliest batch of game players entered middle age, the age structure and consumption habits of the player group were also quietly changing. The pursuit of high-quality content, the emphasis on narrative and artistry, and the need for seamless cross-platform experience are all driving the industry to develop in a more mature direction.

There is no doubt that games are no longer just purely entertainment products, but have gradually developed into an important cultural carrier and social platform.

Looking forward to 2025, it can be imagined that the game industry will have important development trends in the following ten aspects. These trends are not only a continuation of current market changes, but also a prediction of future technological innovation and the evolution of user needs. They influence and intertwine each other, jointly outlining the future of the game industry.

01 The mobile game market is no longer able to stand alone

After more than ten years of rapid growth, the mobile game market is entering a new stage of development. Although it still maintains an absolute leading position in terms of overall market size, the growth trend is expected to change significantly.

Especially in China, the world’s largest mobile game market, the trend of slowing down the growth of mobile games in the past few years has begun to appear. According to the newly released “2024 China Game Industry Report”, the actual revenue of China’s mobile game market in 2024 will increase by only 5.01% year-on-year. This trend is expected to further intensify in 2025.

“2024 China Game Industry Report”

This change has directly affected the strategic layout of major game manufacturers.

Headline platforms represented by Tencent and Netease have begun to allocate more resources to PC and host platforms, and their investment in the development of 3A-level games continues to increase. Even medium-sized game companies such as Jigao Paper have begun to bet on PC and host platforms gain a larger audience.

Strategic transformation is not only a positive response to market changes, but also reflects game companies ‘judgment on future growth points.

At the user level, it is not difficult to observe obvious differentiation trends. The growing differences in the needs of casual users and heavy users have prompted developers to make more precise positioning in product strategies.

Screenshot of “Yuanmeng Star” game

The mobile game market will enter a stage of high-quality competition that focuses more on quality. Simple numerically-driven and homogeneous products may be difficult to achieve sustained growth. High-quality content that can truly impress users will become the key to market competition.

02 Expand cloud games and subscription services

The maturity of cloud game technology and the exploration of business models will usher in key breakthroughs in 2025.

With the application of edge computing technology, the technical threshold of cloud games will be significantly lowered, and the user experience will be substantially improved. The improvement of latency issues and the improvement of image quality will allow cloud games to truly have the basic conditions for commercialization.

In terms of business models, expect to see more subscription services for specific games rather than fully following the XGP or Netflix-style all-category subscription model. Game companies may launch more targeted subscription services for their key products, including integrated subscription packages for game content, peripheral products and social features.

XGP platform

However, multi-game bundled subscription services may still maintain a relatively niche market position. The main reason is that games are more different and unique than videos, music and other content, and users invest relatively high time and attention to individual games, which limits the appeal of all categories of subscription services.

03 AIGC begins to help game development

The application of AI technology in game development will be upgraded from assistive tools to core productivity.

The maturity of programmatic content generation (PCG) technology will significantly improve game development efficiency, especially in scene modeling, character design, dialogue writing and other aspects. It not only reduces development costs, but also creates richer and more diverse game content.

In terms of game AI behavior, we will see smarter and more natural NPC performance. Through deep learning and natural language processing technology, NPC will be able to demonstrate behavioral patterns that are more in line with character settings and provide a more realistic interactive experience. At the same time, AI will also play a greater role in game testing, and the scope and depth of automated testing will be significantly improved.

Illustration character drawing process based on AIGC tool

The most exciting thing is the application of AI in personalized gaming experiences.

By analyzing player behaviors and preferences in real time, the AI system will be able to dynamically adjust game difficulty, plot trend and reward mechanism to provide each player with a tailor-made game experience. This personalization not only enhances the fun of the game, but also significantly increases the player’s Retention rate.

04 Middle-aged and elderly players lead the revival of the PC and console market

It is not difficult to see from the various releases of Nvidia and AMD at this year’s CES that 2025 will continue to witness new breakthroughs in game graphics and performance.

The popularity of the new generation of graphics cards will promote the comprehensive application of optical chasing technology. High-quality game pictures with both frame rate and image quality are expected to be realized. AI-assisted picture optimization technology will bring more realistic visual effects. Technological advances have not only improved the visual performance of games, but also provided new possibilities for game narrative and gameplay innovation.

As the earliest batch of domestic game players enter middle age, the group of mature players aged 30-50 will expand significantly. This group has stable gaming habits and strong spending power, and particularly likes high-quality masterpieces on consoles and PC platforms. In fact, the great success of “Black Myth: Wukong” last year also made people see more of these silent majority.

Screenshot of the game “Black Myth: Wukong”

Game companies will pay more attention to the needs of this group and launch more works that focus on plot depth, gameplay and artistry.

Faced with this trend, it is expected to see more game content for middle-aged and elderly players. These games may include narrative works with deeper plots, games with moderate difficulty but strong strategy, modern interpretations of classic IP, and casual games suitable for the whole family to interact.

The use of nostalgia and the development of family interactive scenes will become important strategies for game companies to strive for this market.

05 Cross-platform and cross-device games become the norm

Cross-platform and cross-device gaming experiences will become standard in 2025.

The maturity of cloud storage technology allows players to seamlessly switch game progress between different devices, and its convenience will become an important consideration for users in choosing games. Developers will also pay more attention to the consistency of cross-platform experiences to ensure that players can get similar gaming experiences on different platforms.

Since last year, it is not difficult to see that domestic manufacturers, from large factories to medium factories, are actively exploring the boundaries of multi-end games. Although there have been no cross-platform works that can successfully compete with “Original God”, this momentum obviously will not stop easily.

Screenshot of the “Original God” game

The unification of social systems is another important aspect of cross-platform strategy. A unified friend system and social features will break down barriers between platforms, making it easier for players to team up, communicate and interact with friends. This strengthening of social connections will increase the stickiness of games and create more social value for games.

The unification of technical standards and the deepening of industry cooperation will also promote the development of this trend. Cooperation between console manufacturers, game platforms and developers will be closer, and cross-platform game development tools and technical solutions will be more mature, thereby reducing the technical threshold and cost of cross-platform game development.

06 Steam OS further popularized the handheld market

The handheld game market will usher in a new boom in 2025.

The success of Steam Deck has demonstrated the market potential of high-performance handheld consoles, which will attract more manufacturers to enter this field. The new generation of handheld consoles will find a better balance between performance and portability, coupled with more efficient cooling solutions and longer battery life, providing players with a better portable gaming experience.

The growth of market demand is the core driving force for the development of handheld phones. As the pace of life accelerates, players ‘demand for portable gaming devices continues to increase. Especially for those users who are accustomed to the high-quality gaming experience on the console/PC platform, handheld consoles that can experience 3A masterpieces anytime and anywhere are unique.

Steam Deck2

The improvement of the ecosystem will further promote the development of the handheld market. More and more games will be specially optimized for handheld platforms to provide better control experience and screen performance.

More importantly, at the just-concluded CES, V officially announced that Lenovo’s new handheld, Legion Go S, has become the first handheld to be officially authorized to carry SteamOS. Next, Steam OS will support more third-party handheld devices. As Steam OS continues to expand, it will undoubtedly bring stronger content and game ecosystem support to the entire Win handheld market.

07 Independent game developers get more opportunities

2025 will be a year of opportunity for independent game developers.

The popularity of AI-assisted development tools has greatly lowered the technical threshold for game development, allowing independent developers to focus on creativity and gameplay design. The application of technologies such as automated content generation tools and intelligent program debugging systems will significantly improve the development efficiency of independent games.

The diversification of distribution channels provides more exposure opportunities for independent games. In addition to traditional platforms such as Steam and Epic, the emergence of more emerging platforms has given independent games more choices. The algorithmic recommendation mechanisms of these platforms are also constantly optimized to make high-quality independent games more easily discovered by target users.

Epic Platform

The commercial value of independent games is also constantly increasing. Players ‘pursuit of unique creativity and artistic expression has opened up a unique market space for independent games. Through crowdfunding, early access and other models, independent developers can better obtain development funds and user feedback and reduce development risks. There will be more and more commercial success stories for high-quality independent games.

08 Cross-border development of game IP enters deep water area

The value development of game IP will enter a deeper stage in 2025.

Entering 2025, it is possible to see more high-quality game-adapted film and television works. These works are no longer limited to simple story transfer, but can truly understand and exert the essence of game IP. The cooperation between game companies and film and television producers will become closer, and may even further melt the boundary between the two.

After all, a game producer like Hideo Kojima has been involved in the entire process since he chose the studio that authorized the film and television adaptation. In the future, it is not even ruled out that he may personally become a director of a movie or series. Even though Fist was questioned about the huge loss of Arcane, it still insisted on continuing to develop it. It is not difficult to see the ambition behind it to transform a multi-media group.

Stills of Arcane

In terms of commercial monetization, the development of game IP will be more diversified.

From traditional peripheral products to offline projects such as theme parks and real-life experiences, the application scenarios of game IP will continue to expand. For example, Game Science also recently released the official brand Black Myth BLACKMYTH and the first batch of peripheral products, and personally started selling directly with the help of IP influence.

Cross-border development can not only create new sources of revenue, but also expand the influence of game IP and attract more new users to enter the game world. Successful cross-border development will form a virtuous cycle and promote the further development of the game itself.

09 In-game advertising and brand placement will become more popular

In-game advertising and brand placement will evolve into a more mature model in 2025.

The design of native advertisements will be more clever, and with the emergence of more and more big-world game types that focus on open scenarios, more advertising content will naturally be integrated into the game scenarios and plots, without affecting the player’s immersive experience, but also subtle brand marketing. The combination of brand and game IP will be deeper, creating a truly valuable interactive experience.

Tesla implanted in “Peace Elite”

The application of new technologies will improve the accuracy and effectiveness of advertising. AI algorithms will help advertisers better understand player behaviors and preferences and deliver more targeted advertising content. Advances in real-time rendering technology will also allow advertising content to be more naturally integrated into game screens, providing a better visual experience.

10 VR and AR games usher in a new dawn

The VR/AR game market will usher in substantial growth in 2025, mainly due to breakthroughs in hardware technology and improvements in the content ecosystem.

Once the new generation of VR equipment has achieved a long board in terms of weight, battery life, resolution, etc., especially in terms of improvement in wearing comfort, it will greatly reduce the threshold for users to use. Further price reductions will also help VR devices gain wider market penetration.

VR game “Blacktop Hoops”

Content construction will be another key factor in promoting the development of VR/AR games. More and more large game studios are investing in the development of VR games, and we will see more 3A-level masterpieces specifically created for VR platforms. The emergence of high-quality content will help VR games break through the current situation of mainly small casual games.

AR games may find more application scenarios on the mobile side. Thanks to the advancement of smartphone AR technology and the latest wave of smart glasses that combine AI, AR games will provide more accurate spatial positioning and more natural fusion of real scenes, bringing users a more immersive mix. Reality experience.

conclusion

Looking forward to the game industry in 2025, we can see a more diversified and inclusive development picture.

Technological innovation will continue to drive the expansion of industry boundaries, and the application of new technologies such as AI, cloud computing, and VR/AR will bring qualitative improvements to the gaming experience.

Innovation in business models and segmentation of user needs are reshaping traditional methods of game development and operation. Trends such as changes in the mobile game market, the revival of the handheld market, and the stable consumption power of middle-aged and elderly players all indicate that the game industry is entering a more mature stage of development.

In this new stage full of opportunities and challenges, games are no longer just a form of entertainment, but have gradually developed into an important medium connecting users of different ages and different cultural backgrounds. For industry participants, grasping these trends and adapting to market changes will be the key to success in future competition.

There is reason to believe that the game industry will demonstrate stronger creativity and broader development space in 2025.