GuShiio.com ① On Friday (February 7) local time, U.S. President Trump said that he plans to announce reciprocal tariff measures next week;
② Relevant tariff measures will apply to all countries, and the news may be released “next Monday or Tuesday.”
③ So, which countries may suffer the most from Trump’s threat of “reciprocal tariffs”?
Cailian News, February 8 (Editor Xiaoxiang)On Friday (February 7) local time, U.S. President Trump said that he plans to announce reciprocal tariff measures next week, and the relevant tariff measures will apply to all countries. The news may be released “next Monday or Tuesday.”
Trump announced the above news during a meeting with visiting Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that day. Trump did not specify which countries would be hit, but hinted it would be a broad tariff move,To help solve the U.S. budget problems.
“I will announce this next week, which is the policy on peer-to-peer trade so that we can treat other countries equally. We don’t want more or less.” Trump said,”I may convene a meeting on Monday or Tuesday to announce a statement, or I may convene a press conference.”
Trump said reciprocal tariffs could replace the 10-20% universal import tariff plan, which has been the core of his economic policy during the campaign. “They charge us, and we charge them. It’s the same. I am considering going this path rather than imposing a unified tariff.”
The move would fulfill a previous Trump campaign promise to impose tariffs on U.S. imports at the same rate as trading partners impose on U.S. exports.
Trump and his advisers have previously hinted that the United States may use tariffs to counter non-tariff trade barriers set up by other countries. The U.S. president has argued he is fighting for “fair treatment” for American consumers.
The “reciprocal tariff” plan was released
Some industry insiders said that Trump’s latest tariff “offensive” is obviously a “major upgrade” that tears up and attempts to reshape global trade relations that are beneficial to the United States.
In fact, since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in the 18th century, the United States has always regarded tariffs as a “weapon” for foreign trade links. Douglas Owen, professor of economics at Dartmouth College and former president of the Economic History Association, said that since then, the United States has used tariffs to achieve three major goals. Owen calls them the “three Rs”:
Revenue (Revenue);
Restriction-Establish import barriers to protect domestic industries;
Reciprocity is the bargaining chip for reaching deals with other countries.
Owen said Trump himself “likes these three ‘Rs’ very much.” Trump said during the campaign that tariffs could replace U.S. income taxes and fund the government. The tariffs will also create factory jobs for the United States and threaten to force Denmark to abandon Greenland.
In fact, increasing tariff revenue and restrictions (protecting domestic industries through trade barriers) had previously been a well-known slogan when Trump launched a trade war. Now, Trump is obviously deliberately burning the fire of tariffs towards the third R of “reciprocity.”
In Trump’s words, reciprocal tariffs mean that “if they tax us, we tax them the same amount.” Similarly, Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick for U.S. Commerce Secretary, said of reciprocal tariffs,”The way you treat us, you should be treated.”
If the United States implements reciprocal tariffs, this will obviously increase tariff rates on many products the United States imports from abroad. On the other hand, implementing reciprocal tariffs may also force trading partners to reduce their own tariff rates to match U.S. tariff treatment.
Which countries are at greatest risk?
So, which countries and regions may suffer the most from Trump’s threat of “reciprocal tariffs”?
Currently, most countries impose tariffs on goods imported from abroad. Countries may impose tariffs for a variety of reasons, including increasing revenue, protecting domestic industries or addressing unfair trade practices. In any given country/region, different types of products are usually subject to different tariff rates. Tariffs or tax rates for the same product may vary in different countries/regions.
Judging from the recent statements made by Trump and his government officials, the potential risks faced by some economies and related industries are undoubtedly particularly prominent.
For example, Trump often mentions foreign governments imposing higher tariffs on U.S. cars, such as complainingEUThe 10% import tariff on cars is much higher than the 2.5% in the United States. He often said that Europe “does not accept our cars,” but ships millions of cars west of the Atlantic Ocean (the United States) every year.
In addition to the EU’s automobile industry, some economies with high tariffs and significant trade surpluses with the United States may also become “thorn in the side” of the Trump administration.
At a recent confirmation hearing, Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed his opinionIndiaexpressed concern about high tariff rates for the U.S. Trade Representative nominee Jamieson Greer talked about the United States ‘concerns about high tariff rates.Vietnam and BrazilComplaints about tariffs and trade barriers.
According to the World Trade Organization, the trade-weighted average tariff rate in the United States is about 2.2%, while India is as high as 12%, Brazil is 6.7%, Vietnam is 5.1%, and EU countries are 2.7%.
Greer said at a confirmation hearing on Thursday that other countries, especially Vietnam, need to lower barriers to U.S. exports if they want to maintain access to the U.S. market. “If I get confirmation, I need to go to these countries and explain to them that if they want to continue to have access to the U.S. market, we need better reciprocity,” Greer said.
It is worth mentioning that in addition to being a key topic in Trump’s first term and the 2024 presidential campaign, the concept of reciprocal tariffs has also appeared as part of the Heritage Foundation’s 2025 project plan.The plan was written by Peter Navarro, Trump’s hand-picked senior White House adviser on trade and manufacturing, who served in the first Trump administration.
Navarro wrote in the report that if one of the measures Trump called for in 2019, namely reciprocal tariffs, is implemented, the president will likely have to prioritize which countries to negotiate with, and potential targets could be “countries that cause the United States to run large trade deficits and impose relatively high tariffs.”
In addition to China, which has already imposed tariffs, according to Navarro’s analysis of the “2025 Project”,Among the top priorities for the United States is India. The trading partners of the sub-important region are the European Union, which has extremely high deficits, and Thailand and Vietnam, which have particularly large tariff differences. The third-level targets will be Japan and Malaysia.
