GuShiio.com ① Hong Kong stocks were adjusted, but on February 28, the net inflow of funds to the south was still 11.136 billion yuan, and the net inflow during the year reached 261.526 billion yuan.
② The reasons for the adjustment may be the adjustment of relevant trade policies by the United States and the rapid upward movement of Hong Kong stocks since February, resulting in short-term overbuying of the market. Among them, the adjustment of technology stocks is related to the accumulation of certain vulnerabilities in the recent hot market transactions, and the AI technology track has begun to enter a relatively congested stage.
Financial Union, March 1 (Reporter Shen Shuhong)After hitting a new intraday high on February 27, the Hang Seng Technology Index on February 28 closed down 2.19% against the background of severe shocks in the global market. The Hong Kong stock market as a whole showed a trend of rising less and falling more, and the Hong Kong stock ETF market also There was a correction, among which the Hong Kong consumer ETF fell to a limit.
However, the influx of funds southward has not stopped. On February 28, the net inflow of funds to the south was 11.136 billion yuan, and the net inflow during the year reached 261.526 billion yuan.
Regarding the major adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market, some fund managers believe that this is caused by the overnight adjustment of relevant trade policies in the United States and the rapid upward movement of Hong Kong stocks since February, resulting in short-term overbought in the market. Among them, the adjustment of technology stocks is also related to the accumulation of certain vulnerabilities in the recent hot market transactions, and the AI technology track may have begun to enter a relatively congested stage.
Talking about the overall rebound in the index level of the Hong Kong stock market since the beginning of 2025, it is mainly contributed by the convergence of equity risk premiums, and its sustainability cannot be based solely on higher expectations. Industry insiders believe that the future will still be returned to the restoration of corporate profits. The sustainability of a series of China asset revaluation narratives triggered by DeepSeek depends on whether the market can see evidence of continuous progress and breakthroughs in the domestic AI and technology industries.
Buying money from the south
On February 28, ETFs in Hong Kong stock consumption, Hong Kong stock automobiles, robots, and Hang Seng Technology fell sharply. The Hong Kong stock consumption ETF fell to a limit. The Hong Kong stock automobile ETF and Hong Kong stock technology 50ETF fell sharply by 8.09% and 7.56% respectively. Many robot-related ETFs fell by more than 7%.
However, judging from the inflow of funds from the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, as of February 28, the total net inflow of funds to the south during the year was 261.526 billion yuan (RMB), of which the net inflow from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 192.147 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen Stock Connect was 69.378 billion yuan. Judging from this week alone, although Hong Kong stocks experienced major adjustments on the last day, the net inflow of funds to the south still reached 70.100 billion yuan, of which the net inflow on February 28 was also 11.136 billion yuan.
Correspondingly, the net outflow of funds to the north in the past three months was 74.604 billion yuan, of which the net outflow during the year was 6.779 billion yuan and the net outflow this week was 6.775 billion yuan.
A set of data provided by Hua ‘an Fund depicts the accelerated flow of passive foreign investment into Hong Kong stocks: As of February 19, the Hong Kong stock market received accelerated inflows of passive funds (ETFs), and the scale of passive foreign investment inflows rose to 910 million US dollars from US$540 million in the previous week., mainly funds focusing on investing in China and China-based stocks, which is in line with the characteristics of investors using these two index tools to game the technology market; The outflow of active funds (mainly Long-only) narrowed. The outflow was mainly from funds focusing on China and emerging markets, and the inflow was mainly from China-funded funds.
Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of CITIC Construction Investment Securities, pointed out that southbound funds will continue to be an important force driving the rise of Hong Kong stocks. Domestic capital is obviously more willing to flow to Hong Kong stocks than foreign capital. Considering the high probability of slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts in the United States this year, it is expected that this phenomenon will continue for a long time.
Hong Kong stock market short-term overbought AI technology track enters congestion stage
Regarding the major adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market, Xing Cheng, selected hybrid fund manager of Hang Seng Qianhai Hong Kong Stock Connect, analyzed that this was due to the overnight adjustment of relevant trade policies in the United States, which triggered an increase in risk aversion in the market and major Asia-Pacific stock indexes fell one after another. The adjustment of trade policies may push up potential inflationary pressures in the United States, which will lead to a higher dollar interest rate over a longer period of time. Therefore, the US dollar index rose overnight, which also brought downward pressure on the currencies of emerging countries, including the RMB.
On the other hand, the rapid upward movement of Hong Kong stocks since February has led to short-term overbought in the market. If equity risk premium is used to estimate, this indicator shows that the valuation and sentiment of Hong Kong stocks before today’s decline were close to the October 2024 high. Therefore, from a short-term technical perspective, there is also a need for profit-taking and adjustment.
When talking about the sharp fall in technology stocks, Great Wall Fund believes that it was mainly affected by several factors: First, the resurgence of Trump’s tariff turmoil. Trump once again announced that he plans to impose another 10% tariff on China on March 4, which will affect market risk appetite. Second, as the two sessions are approaching, policy expectations are fermented and funds are rotated to the pro-cyclical sector. Third, at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, the market generally has the characteristics of style switching, and the crowded state of high-end technology stocks in the early stage takes time to digest. The current small-and-medium-sized style is under periodic pressure, which requires incremental catalysts at the macro or industrial level to promote it. In the short term, the market may cool down the overheated trading sentiment of related sectors through sector rotation and style switching.
“In addition to overseas incentives, the recent hot market transactions have accumulated certain vulnerabilities.” Shanghai Bank Fund said that the AI technology track has begun to enter a relatively congested stage.
Technological growth and AI+ are still the main lines throughout the year
“Although the technology sector has entered the adjustment stage in stages, for the whole year, technological growth and AI + are still the main lines throughout the year.” The Great Wall Fund pointed out that AI will bring about changes in production methods and business models, which will run through the entire industry chain of hardware, software and end-side. It is also a combination of social capital and popular consensus.
“In the medium and long term, these sectors representing future industries still need to wait for further follow-up on fundamentals.” Great Wall Fund said that the technology growth style will benefit from the decline in global real interest rates, the acceleration of a new round of capital expenditures by China’s major Internet companies, the expansion of the private technology industry, and the rapid development of emerging industries after the breakthrough of deepseek technology. Policy support and capital inflows will also improve expectations and liquidity in the technology sector.
“We are cautious in the short term about some sectors that were too hyped in the early stage of science and technology and were out of the value range.” Bank of China Fund said that after lengthening the cycle, the company is still optimistic about the science and technology field brought about by the development of new quality productivity in China. Core companies with competitiveness in this field have a long-term optimistic foundation, but need to intervene at appropriate value positions.
“Regarding the series of Chinese asset revaluation narratives triggered by DeepSeek, we believe that their sustainability depends on whether the market can see evidence of continuous progress and breakthroughs in the domestic AI and technology industries, so as to verify the expectation that the long-term Sino-US technology and productivity game will go hand in hand., this may be an important basic assumption supporting China’s asset revaluation narrative.” Xing Cheng said.
In his view, the overall rebound in the index level since the beginning of 2025 is mainly contributed by the convergence of equity risk premiums, and its sustainability cannot be based solely on higher expectations.”I think the subsequent market will still have to return to the repair of corporate profits., the starting point for comprehensive improvement of corporate profits is the effective implementation of fiscal policy and the reversal of the credit cycle.”
Therefore, although the marginal easing of liquidity and the restoration of risk appetite can lead to a phased rebound, the sustainability of Hong Kong stocks still requires the support of endogenous economic drivers, such as the implementation of more macro support policies to further restore medium and long-term confidence of residents and enterprises.
On the other hand, considering that the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is still relatively low and the profit structure of market components is better, Xing Cheng believes that this makes the Hong Kong stock market more sensitive to potential corporate profit repairs and policy signals. In terms of configuration, it is recommended to comprehensively consider the risk-return ratio. In 2025, we will mainly be optimistic about the technological growth style and the value style with certain shareholder returns.
