GuShiio.com Market analysts expect Ethereum to consolidate widely between $2000 and $2500, and this range of fluctuations may continue until a breakthrough signal appears, signaling the next major market.
The recent decline of Ethereum has really hurt many investors.
A recent report from Matrixport pointed out that the global search popularity of Ethereum has approached an all-time low, which in the past has often signaled a further sharp drop in prices. The decrease in activity on the ETH chain, the decline in total lock-in value (TVL), coupled with market speculation about potential strategic digital asset reserves in the United States, multiple factors have combined, resulting in a significant reduction in demand for Ethereum-native token ETH. The current market environment shows that weak demand for ETH has become an indisputable fact.
However, there are still many staunch supporters of the Ethereum ecosystem in the industry. ABCDE founder Du Jun publicly stated on March 3 that although he added a position in Ethereum in the past year and caused a book loss of more than US$20 million, he still firmly believed in the value of Ethereum and even considered selling other assets to reduce the cost of holding ETH positions.
Nick Tomaino, founder of well-known investment firm 1confirmation, even bluntly stated on social media that they would “double their bets on ETH” because in his view, Ethereum is the only two “trustworthy, neutral and sufficiently decentralized” ecosystems in the crypto world.”One of the ecosystems has unique long-term” social scalability.”
Faced with the continued sluggish market sentiment and the “counter-trend support” of industry leaders, what is the market outlook for Ethereum?
Historical cycle comparison: script repeats itself?
Some market observers point out that Ethereum’s recent performance is similar to the bear markets in 2018 and 2022. Anonymous trader 5.0 Inverted said Ethereum was “following the price movements of the bear markets in 2018 and 2022.” The data in the figure below shows that Ethereum fell by 82.71% and 68.29% in 2018 and 2022 respectively, and continued to decline in the second half of the year.
Another trader pointed out that Ethereum fell 60% from $4200 to $1800 in the last cycle, and then rebounded strongly by 170% in the next few months, eventually reaching a record high of $4800. Drawing on the experience of 2021, Ethereum may continue to maintain its current weakness before it rebounds at the end of the year.
Technical analysis: Interweaving of multi-space signals
As of writing, Ethereum has rebounded from a low below $2000 to around $2240, finding strong support near the $2000 mark, a level that matches the key ICT Best Trading Entry Point (OTE) level closely watched by traders and temporarily prevented the downward trend of prices.
Looking at the hourly chart, ETH prices show mixed signals. After briefly breaking through the local resistance level of $2262, prices began to fall back, and the bears may further depress prices in the short term.
Daily charts convey a more positive message. Ethereum prices began to recover after rallied at $2076 support. In the medium term, there has been no clear signal of reversal. Traders should focus on the key area of $2000. If it falls below this level, prices could quickly test the $1750 area.
Market analysts expect Ethereum to consolidate widely between $2000 and $2500, and this range of fluctuations may continue until a breakthrough signal appears, signaling the next major market. Both long and short sides are paying close attention to these key levels.
If Ethereum can maintain above $2000 and accumulate momentum, the current stage may turn into a new bullish wave. Chart analyst Ali Martinez believes that the most critical resistance for Ethereum is at the $2,400 mark, with more than 2.41 million investors buying 62.68 million ETH units. For analysts, breaking through that level could “pave the way for a $3,000 rally.”
CryptoQuant analyst MACD believes that the MVRV ratio of Ethereum has fallen below 1, putting Ethereum in an undervalued area. Historically, this level has seen significant price increases in previous bull market cycles. In addition, MACD noted that Ethereum’s cumulative addresses (addresses that continue to receive ETH but never withdraw them) have increased sharply, indicating that institutional investors are building their positions during the current market downturn.
However, MACD also acknowledged that broader economic conditions, such as U.S. liquidity and monetary policies, may continue to exert downward pressure on asset prices, market sentiment has not yet fully turned optimistic, and investors need to remain cautious and wait for more clear signal verification.
