GuShiio.com Making 10,000 times in a few hours is not a rational idea. 2-5 Earning 2-4 times during the year is a rational idea.
Author: Mohamed Allam, Messari Protocol Research Analyst;
Compiled by: 0xjs@Golden Finance
A few weeks ago, I wrote an article titled “Stick with your investment paper or you’ll lose money”, and God, it feels like no one has an investment paper-and most importantly, everyone is losing money. If this is your first cryptocurrency cycle, welcome to the casino. If you try to bet against the dealer, you will lose. Cough,$TRUMP,$LIBRA,$JAILSTOOL and $CAR. These are just mainstream Memes, but if you are really in the trenches, you will know that this is just the first layer of onions.
Let me say it again: If you treat cryptocurrency as a casino, it will treat you as a gambler.
In casinos, one in five players will win money on a jackpot machine. This means that the vast majority of people are losers-even “winners”, if you calculate how much money they lost before winning, they don’t really win. Suppose you bet a lot of meme coins, lose money again and again, and finally win the jackpot. What will happen? You think you’re special. You think you cracked the code. But in reality, your victory is just an exception. If you keep playing, the casino will take the money away.
Casinos lure you with free buffets and dreams of financial freedom. Memecoin seduces you with airdrops, 10,000 times dreams, wife swaps and shiny Rolex.
Casinos make rules for you to play until they decide to spit you out. Twitter KOL sends emoticons to the moon and then puts you in the cold.
When you are out of luck, casinos will sell you the fantasy of “one big win”. Memecoin has the same effect, but has a smaller chance of success.
Mathematics-Why You May Lose
Now, I’m a mathematician, so let’s discuss the laws of large numbers in simple English.
The law states that as the number of trials increases, your results will get closer and closer to the expected average. In gambling, the expected average is the money you lose. Casinos and gambling games were built around this principle. The more you play, the more your personal results tend to be in favor of the casino advantage.
Think of it this way: If you flip a coin 10 times, there might be 7 heads and 3 tails-the anomaly will occur in small samples. But if you flip a coin 1,000 times, the result will be closer to 50/50. The same logic applies to betting on meme coins. You may get lucky once or twice, but after enough trading, the expected results will return to reality. The reality is that Twitter KOL is getting richer and richer, and you are carrying huge losses.
So, how can the winner win?
1. Enter early-But we must face the reality that even the brightest people cannot leave on time, and entering early is almost impossible.
2. Becoming an insider trader-despicable and not good.
3. Becoming a KOL to do damage-it’s also despicable and bad.
So, in short, this is a game of luck unless you meet the above criteria, which you may not, including me.
That being said, the stigma of cryptocurrencies needs to change. Memecoin will almost never make you rich. If you really care about this area, study it and develop a paper-a real paper.
Making 10,000 times in a few hours is not a rational idea. 2-5 Earning 2-4 times during the year is a rational idea. If you understand this, you can make money (NFA, of course). Don’t let the Meme cycle consume you.
Will Meme coins disappear? No.
Is the peak of crime here? Yes. And it will probably always be.
But if you want cryptocurrencies to succeed in this gray world, you need to be prepared and understand what you are investing in.
