GuShiio.com After several days of thrilling shocks, risky assets reversed overnight.
After several days of thrilling shocks, risky assets reversed overnight.
Push data showed that in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) once rebounded from the day’s low of $81,500 to more than $88,000, an increase of nearly 10% within the day. At the same time, the declines in the three major stock indexes narrowed, and the Nasdaq closed down to 0.35%.
The “tug-of-war” between market sentiment and macro economy
Recently, the market has been stagnant. Bitcoin rebounded from a low of US$78,000 on February 21 to US$95,000, and then fell back to around US$81,000. Both the long and short sides are engaged in a tug of war, and the market direction is unclear. Although Trump’s “pro-encryption” statement once boosted market confidence, its impact was ultimately short-lived and failed to reverse the weakness of the overall market. Potential macroeconomic risks are still the “Sword of Damocles” hanging above the market.
KiYoung Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that the Bitcoin market may continue to linger in a downturn until U.S. market sentiment improves substantially. Under the intertwined influence of multiple factors such as unclear regulatory policies, complex and changeable macroeconomic environment, and continued fluctuations in investor sentiment, it is still unknown whether Bitcoin can maintain a high level for a long time. Until a stronger market catalyst emerges, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within a wide range. Investors need to pay close attention to market trends and capture key signals.
After the US$90,000 mark fell, bulls face severe challenges
Although the market has tried many times to rebound, Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market are still under pressure and have failed to effectively establish a sustained upward trend. Many analysts have issued warnings that if bulls want to reverse the trend, they must take action as soon as possible to regain key points, otherwise Bitcoin may face further downside risks.
However, Ki Young Ju believes that it may be too early to conclude that the bull market cycle is over. CryptoQuant’s on-chain data shows that market chain activity remains relatively flat and key indicators are also neutral, indicating that despite recent weak market performance, the overall bull market pattern may not have been disrupted. In addition, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid, and more mining machines continue to be launched, which also reflects that major market participants still have confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
Ju further pointed out that if this bull market cycle ends here, it may not be the result that major market stakeholders would like to see, including early entry of “giant whale” investors, large mining companies, traditional financial institutions and U.S. President Trump, who has publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies. Retail investors are often considered late in the bull market cycle, and at this stage, their market behavior may not be enough to dominate the market.
US$85,000 has become a key liquidity test, and the historical cycle will repeat itself?
TradingView analysts believe that the more critical support level for BTC in the short term remains US$85,000, which has played a crucial role in the market game in recent weeks.
If Bitcoin continues to operate below US$85,000 in the next few days, it may trigger a larger market sell-off. The concentrated release of selling pressure may lead to an accelerated downward trend in the currency price and further confirm the bearish momentum in the market. At that time, Bitcoin may face the risk of testing lower support levels.
Quinten wrote on the X platform: Looking back on history may provide us with some enlightenment. In the last bull market cycle, Bitcoin experienced seven large pullbacks, with the pullbacks being: -17%, -17%, -32%, -26%, -28%, -51%,-25%. Every correction has triggered market panic, making people feel that a “bear market” has arrived. Whenever prices fall sharply, the market is always filled with arguments that “Bitcoin is dead.” However, history has proved that Bitcoin finally successfully broke through resistance and continued to climb upwards. Admittedly, history does not simply repeat itself, but it often does seem strikingly similar.
Taken together, the two key prices of US$85,000 and US$90,000 will become the focus of competition between the long and short sides in the short-term market. Investors need to pay close attention to the gains and losses of these two levels to judge the next step of the market.
According to analyst MasterAnanda, the current market trend is very “interesting” and sends some key signals worthy of attention:
The bottom may be proven: Bitcoin fell sharply by 28% from its all-time high of $109,000 last week, and rebounded quickly and strongly after hitting a low of $78,300. This V-shaped reversal of “bottoming out” is usually regarded as a signal formed by a periodic market bottom, indicating that the possibility of further sharp declines in the short term is reduced.
Healthy correction in a bull market: After a strong bull market rally, it is normal for the market to experience a certain correction. This correction will help release the profit-making positions accumulated in the market in the early period and accumulate new upward momentum for the market. Only a healthy adjustment can lay the foundation for a longer-term bull market.
The “golden pit” of bargain hunting: The current market correction actually provides a rare opportunity for over-the-counter funds to enter. If you miss out on the previous rapid rise of Bitcoin from US$85,000 to US$95,000, then now may be a good opportunity to lay out at a relatively low level. There is always no shortage of opportunities in the market, and the correction is an important “accumulation stage” in the bull market cycle.
The long-term bull market trend remains unchanged: Bitcoin’s long-term upward growth trend has not changed fundamentally. Judging from historical laws, Bitcoin is expected to resume its upward trend in the next few months and gradually fluctuate upwards. According to previous analysts ‘predictions, Bitcoin still has the potential to hit the target price of US$120,000 next month.
Technical indicators provide support: Judging from the Bitcoin daily chart, the 200-day moving average (MA200) is playing a key supporting role, and MA200 has long been regarded as one of the most important technical indicators for judging long-term trends of cryptocurrencies. The current Bitcoin price trend is forming a higher low, indicating that the bullish trend may be further confirmed.
Market sentiment and capital accumulation: This cycle is not driven solely by U.S. government policies or geopolitical events, but also follows the market’s own cyclical laws. Bitcoin is ready for a new round of growth and is expected to hit another new high in 2025. In addition, there is still a large amount of funds waiting for opportunities outside the market. Once the market stabilizes and recovers, these funds are expected to accelerate their entry into the market and further boost the market’s rise.
To sum up, Bitcoin may have a phased bottom, and the market is entering a “accumulation stage” that is ready for shocks. Although short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, the long-term bull trend remains solid. Investors can seize the current correction opportunity, lay out batches at relatively low levels, hold patiently, and wait for the market to finally choose the direction.
