GuShiio.com After experiencing the trough in the second half of 2024, the entire China film market needs the 2025 Spring Festival to inspire people, and it has indeed lived up to everyone’s expectations: the total number of moviegoers is 187 million, and the total box office is 9.51 billion, both of which have significantly set historical records.
Among them,”Nezha: The Devil Boy in the Sea”(hereinafter referred to as “Nezha 2”) has been climbing steadily since its release on the first day of the Lunar New Year, and the box office has fallen many times. During the Spring Festival alone, it led the box office with 4.8 billion yuan.
“Thought it would explode, but I didn’t expect it to be so explosive!!!& rdquo; Dozens of theater managers and tens of millions of movie fans have publicly expressed similar views on Weibo, Douyin and other platforms. Many practitioners even gave incense to “Nezha 2” on the day of welcoming the God of Wealth to thank it for saving the theater.
After the good news spread to the capital market, Enlight Media, the main producer of “Nezha 2”, rose 18% on the first day of trading. At the close of trading at 15:30 on February 6, its share price once reached 13.73 yuan, setting a record high of nearly 4 years.
As of the evening of February 6,”Nezha 2″ officially surpassed “Changjin Lake” and topped the box office champion in China’s film history.People’s Daily, Xinhuanet, CCTV News and other central and party media named and praised them. When answering reporters ‘questions, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that watching movies during the Spring Festival has become a New Year custom.
Even Wang Changtian, chairman of Light, who knew the quality of the film, gave his biggest expectation before the release of the film, just that “Nezha 2” would reach the 7 billion mark. However, with the popularity of hundreds of millions of viewers, Cat’s Eye and Lighthouse’s predictions for the total box office of “Nezha 2” are rising over time. The current forecast has reached the 10 billion + level, almost twice as high as the former film champion “Changjin Lake”.
Judging from the momentum generated by the film so far,“Nezha 2”, which has greatly set a new record in China’s film history and hit the top 20 global box office list, is likely to bring China films to the era of tens of billions (US$1.3 billion +)。What is more certain is that with the explosion of “Nezha 2”, the China film market this year is much more prosperous than last year.
According to the box office forecast given by Cat’s Eye Professional, the total box office of the six films during the Spring Festival will exceed 15 billion yuan, which is 35% of the total box office for the whole year of 2024. As long as several major periods such as the summer and National Day are stable, the box office for the whole year is 50 billion + In expectations, if one or two more dark horses appear, it is not an unreachable dream to return to the 60 billion era.
Judging from the production, distribution costs and box office of “Nezha 2”,The expected net profit of producers Enlight Media and Coco Bean Animation will be more than 2.5 billion yuan, which is even higher than the total net profit of many listed film companies in 2024. In terms of its influence on China films,”Nezha 2″ is even more worthy of the Imperial Temple.
The box office has fallen for five consecutive days, and the film and television winter does not exist?
When Wang Changtian said that his expectation for “Nezha 2” was 7 billion yuan, most industry insiders were noncommittal. The ridicule of Weibo’s big V and Douban ticket groups could be seen everywhere, and it would be moved to WeChat every few days. This does not mean that the industry is not optimistic about “Nezha 2”.
In fact, many industry media gave “Nezha 2” a box office forecast of 3.5 billion yuan before the release, with the highest reaching 5 billion yuan. This expectation is not only the highest in the Spring Festival, but also far exceeds the 2024 box office champion “Hot”. In other words, everyone is not only optimistic that “Nezha 2” will win the Spring Festival, but also optimistic that it will become the box office champion of the year.
The reason why expectations are significantly lower than today’s box office is obvious.
First, according to the Lighthouse report, the average age of viewers is increasing year by year, with young viewers under the age of 25 falling to 21%, and the estimated movie-watching population also falling from 500 million in 2023 to 430 million in 2024. “Nezha 2”, an old IP from five years ago, has a question mark on the effectiveness of fan retention.
Second,The market will be relatively cold in 2024, and emerging entertainment such as short dramas will continue to hit theaters. In the cold winter of film and television, it is hard to believe that “Nezha 2” can reach 100 million + viewers。
The change began on January 30:”Nezha 2″ Douban opened with a score of 8.5, taking the lead among the six films released during the Spring Festival.
Against the backdrop of colleagues, in addition to the relatively stable box office of “Tang Tan 1900”, which has significant IP effect, the filming of the three films “Shooting the Condor”,”Jiaolong” and “Fengshen 2” has been absorbed to a certain extent by “Nezha 2″.”Bear Infested Restores the Future”, which has always been known as the Spring Festival quality inspector ‘s blockbuster goalkeeper, has also been robbed of part of the family audience. On February 5, the screening of “Nezha 2” exceeded 50% for the first time, but the average number of visitors per game reached 70, more than three times that of “Changjin Lake”.
A theater in Henan ranked 88 times for “Nezha 2” on hot searches in one day, and some theaters issued handwritten tickets to the audience. The next few games were full, so they had no choice but to move a small bench and sit in the aisle.
After the filming schedule continued to rise, from 480 million yuan on January 30, to 616 million yuan on January 31, and then to 866 million yuan on February 4, the box office of “Nezha 2” continued to decline, becoming the first film in China’s film history that has box office exceeding 600 million yuan in a single day for five consecutive days. Among the top 10 box office in a single day, six seats were exclusive.This shows how strong the siphon effect of “Nezha 2” is.
From Weibo to Douban, from Douyin to Xiaohongshu, hot searches have almost been slaughtered by “Nezha 2”. From a production perspective, as the box office champion during the Spring Festival,”Nezha 2″ is well deserved.
Ao Run, the cold Dragon King of the West Sea, let the audience see what beauty and strength are miserable with his words that he has no choice; the contrast between Lady Shiji and the wind makes people laugh; the prejudice in Shen Gongbao’s heart is that a mountain has hit the audience after five years.
While “Nezha 2” was booming at the box office, Jiao Zi, director of the “Nezha” series, Guo Fan, director of the “Wandering Earth” series, and Feng Ji, CEO of the game science who developed “Black Myth: Wukong”, were praised by the audience. Standing side by side, they became the three clear people in the entertainment industry.
As of press time, the box office of “Nezha 2” has reached 6.74 billion yuan (including pre-sales), and the number of movie-goers has reached 131 million, just one step away from the global single market box office record set by “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”(6.79 billion yuan).
As Cat’s Eye gave a prediction of 10 billion +, messages from the audience came one after another, and it was almost a consensus that they should carry it in. Although there were discordant voices, they did not affect “Nezha 2”. Negative impact.
Starting from the unprecedented enthusiasm of the audience, we seem to be able to draw a conclusion that the so-called film and television winter is a false proposition. But the problem is that there are too few films like “Nezha 2”.
Just as not all milk is called Telunsu, nor are all directors called Jiaozi or Guo Fan.
Relying on one or two industry leaders, of course, you can have enough food and drink at a certain time period, but when they are immersed in creation, what the theater should eat, what the audience can see, and when film industrialization will reach a new level and move towards a new normal., it is worth pondering by the industry.
Countdown to the box office of 10 billion yuan, light and cocoa beans win
“If “Nezha 2” box office reaches 10 billion yuan, how much money can the producer make? How much money can dumpling directors make?& rdquo; This issue has been hotly debated by audiences on many platforms.
Different from netizens ‘speculation that Dumplings can earn an estimated 100 million yuan if they get paid by the director + box office dividends, Dumplings are not only the director, but also the major shareholder of the main producer of “Nezha 2”, and the income they can earn far exceeds 100 million yuan.
According to the box office announcement of “Nezha 2” released by Enlight Media on February 5, when the box office of “Nezha 2” was 4.84 billion yuan, Enlight’s operating income ranged from 950 million to 1.01 billion yuan, exceeding the company’s most recent fiscal year. 50% of the operating income in the audited consolidated financial statements.If the box office of “Nezha 2” reaches 10 billion yuan, Light’s operating income will be about 2 billion yuan, and its net profit may be more than 1.5 billion yuan.
Unlike other films released during the Spring Festival, there are not only multiple producers, but also multiple co-producers, who can share investment risks.Light is quite confident in whether “Nezha 2” can be sold and has not sold its investment share to the outside world.
The five production companies of “Nezha 2” are Cocoa Bean Animation, Light Media, Light Pictures, Freedom Realm and Color Bar House (ranked in order). Among them, Light Media, Light Film, and Color Bar House all belong to Light.
According to company information, the major shareholder of Cocoa Bean Animation and Freedom Realm is the director Dumpling himself. Horgos Cocoa Bean under his name is the controlling shareholder of the former, while Jiaozi holds 56% of the company and is the majority shareholder and actual controller. Liu Wenwen, producer of Colorful Bar House and “Nezha 1”, holds 30% and 14% respectively. In the realm of freedom, dumplings hold 51%.
Judging from the box office announcement announced by Light, the investment share of “Nezha 2” is roughly 50 – 50 between Light and Dumpling Companies, and the operating income of Dumpling Companies is also expected to be around 2 billion yuan.
Excluding the costs of film production, distribution, promotion, etc.,Judging from the dumpling director’s shareholding in Cocoa Bean and Zhizijing, the net profit he can earn from “Nezha 2” may exceed 1 billion yuan.。
It is also worth mentioning that in “Nezha 1”, Guang Guang is the number one producer, with Horgos cocoa beans for dumplings and Tian Xiaopeng’s October culture ranking third and fourth. With the sold well of “Nezha 1”, the voice of dumplings has also increased at the speed of light, and cocoa bean animation has surpassed light and become the first producer. October Culture did not become the producer of “Nezha 2” due to problems with the funding chain of “Deep Sea”.
In addition to the “Nezha” series, Light’s “Jiang Ziya” has also invested in cocoa bean animation, ranking fourth, which may bring tens of millions of net profits to dumplings.
In addition to the box office revenue of the movie,”Nezha 2″ also has considerable advertising revenue and joint revenue.
As early as before its release,”Nezha 2″ reached cooperation with 12 consumer brands. The advertising cooperation with Mengniu won millions of likes on Douyin alone, which is quite out of the circle.
After the release of “Nezha 2”, sales of its related products increased by more than 30 times year-on-year, and original peripherals that collaborated with Bubble Mart, Jason Animation, and FunCrazy sold well across the board.
Among them, the Natural Fettle series of hand-made products that cooperated with Bubble Mart have sold out, and the latest delivery date has arrived in June. According to Bubble Mart’s response, it is adjusting its production plan and actively replenishing goods. According to Jason Animation News,Its joint sales with Nezha 2 have exceeded 100 million yuan。
It is believed that as time goes by, the sales of “Nezha 2” related co-brands will reach a new high. From the hindsight of “Nezha 1” to the early layout of “Nezha 2”, it also reflects the improvement of China films in aspects such as IP operations and derivatives.
“Nezha 3” and “The Legend of Ao Bing” are on the way, and “Nezha” is just around the corner. Over time, it may not be able to compete with Marvel at its peak. From “Dingjun Mountain” in 1905 to “Nezha 2” in 2025, China films have officially gone through a century, with tens of billions of films to celebrate. It also means that three parts of the world are destined and seven parts of the world are hard work.
Three-year-old Nezha can say that my fate is up to me, but not to heaven. Isn’t the same for a century-old China movie?
