GuShiio.com When $TRUMP is dumped, it will destroy retail holders and set the industry back many years.
Write an article:Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX
Compiled by: 0xjs@Golden Finance
Over the past century, as communications technology has advanced, the skills necessary for politicians to attract people have also changed. To illustrate my point, I want to take a quick look at the history of American presidents and focus on key advances in communications technology.
radio
The hottest technology stock of the 1920s was RCA, the dominant consumer radio manufacturer at the time. RCA’s P/E ratio hit an all-time high of 73 before the crash and has since fallen. This is one thing to keep in mind about technology stocks and this time. During the First World War, radio began to emerge as a military technology. After the war, under the leadership of the United States, radio was commercialized. By 1940, almost 80% of American households owned radios. Wartime President Franklin D. Roosevelt was known for his fireside radio conversations, who spoke to the American public and instilled in them the war propaganda they needed at the time to unite society and sacrifice blood and wealth against the Germans and Japanese. In order to succeed, subsequent politicians must have a place on the radio waves.
TV
Televisions became a major consumer product in the United States in the 1960s, with 90% of households owning televisions. This is the first time that people across the country can watch the propaganda of the ruling class together. The political watershed moment for television as a powerful tool for political advertising was the September 1960 presidential debate between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon.
Nixon was the favorite to win because he was a more experienced politician. People are familiar with his voice, but not his face. Kennedy was a gentle, inexperienced young man. However, the television debate showed the American people an elderly and frail Nixon and a young and energetic Kennedy. Nixon’s poor television performance turned the tables and Kennedy won the election. Since then, calm television performance has become a necessity for winning senior positions.
Internet/Social Media
It took some time for politicians to really take advantage of social media, which originated from the personal computer and Internet revolutions. However, by 2016, this political force had emerged. To understand the number of political television and radio ads purchased in presidential election years, let’s take a look at this statistic: In the 2012 U.S. presidential election, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney spent approximately $2.6 billion on television and radio ads.
The rise of Donald Trump almost began with a joke. He joined the Republican race for the 2016 presidential nomination. No one thinks he can succeed, and Trump does not plan to spend a lot of money on TV and radio ads and then take a political blow. He is considered a nuisance within the party and will therefore not receive significant donations. However, while Trump lacks significant campaign cash to spend lavishly on television and radio advertising, he does understand how new technology is changing the media landscape.
Pew Media estimates that 68% of adults had a Facebook account in 2016. At the time, it was not common to micro-target groups based on activities within Social networks to gain political gain. The Trump team seized this gold mine, targeting potential supporters cheaply and delivering political ads to them at a much cheaper cost than on television or radio. In addition, Trump also uses Twitter (now called X) to communicate directly with people in real time. This is raw, uncensored and confusing. But it’s humane and it attracts both supporters and opponents. Attention has always been a commodity that works, and Trump has used social media to attract more attention and win the presidency at a much lower cost than any other politician.
podcast
Politicians around the world have seen the success of social media in shaping public opinion and have changed their communication strategies. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the comprehensive effect of social media in disseminating political propaganda was fully demonstrated. Governments around the world are demanding that large tech social media platforms spread lies about COVID and vaccines around the world and suppress any opinions that disagree with official accounts. The canceled and removed content turned to private podcasts that survive and develop on the Internet.
By 2024, many people will get news and form their political opinions by listening to their favorite podcast hosts. Joe Rogan is by far the most successful podcast in America. He recently signed a multi-year contract worth $250 million with Spotify. Rogan influenced public opinion in the recent U.S. presidential election, especially among undecided voters. Trump appeared on Rogan, but Harris did not. Trump has appeared on numerous podcasts that appeal to his supporters. Harris continues to pass time-tested TV and radio shows supplemented by antiquated advertising on social media platforms. Trump defeated Harris because he once again used advances in communications technology to connect himself more directly with voters.
What have we learned?
As technology develops, information can be spread to a larger audience faster and cheaper, and the connection between politicians and the people they rule becomes more direct. As rulers become more humane, they must adapt to the way they convey their platforms to the people. Humanization is not always good for politicians, because the public quickly realizes that they are as retarded as fools.
TRUMP
Trump is the first politician to officially launch his Memecoin and is arguably one of the three most influential politicians in the world (leaders of China and Russia, on par with or close to him). Trump has ushered in a new era of political Memecoin.
I think political Meme coins will do the following:
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Provide truly real-time global polls on politicians
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Increase the participation and influence of political movements at almost no cost
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Get billions of people to join Web3
Let’s take a deeper look.
Common sense game
Political popularity is a common sense game. Everyone believes what everyone else believes affects how we view politicians more than what we ourselves believe. This leads to information asymmetry, because in public we believe one thing and in private we believe another. So we provide pollsters with spam information about our true views. This puts politicians in trouble because they want to know our true private views in real time. However, if openly supporting unpopular politicians is socially acceptable, it also allows unpopular politicians to pretend to be popular. In short, both the government and the governed have imperfect information, which can lead to policy mistakes.
Political Memecoin provides zero-knowledge proof of political popularity. Specifically, as an individual, you can now privately support politicians by purchasing Memecoin, which your friends hate and will not face any social stigma. Therefore, politicians can understand the true opinions of the people. Finally, those who just want to go with the flow can support politicians because their Memecoin prices have gone up, which gives them the confidence to support the side that everyone knows everyone else knows will win.
This phenomenon is reflected in the rise of Polymarket, a decentralized exchange that allows the use of cryptocurrencies to bet on political outcomes. Polymarket has become famous for its 2024 Trump and Harris election prediction market, which shows in real time who the global community believes is more likely to become the next U.S. president. Anyone with an Internet connection and cryptocurrency can bet on the outcome, allowing participants from around the world to speculate.
Polymarket has come under fire in the United States because their market shows Democratic candidate and establishment favorite Harris will lose. Democrats are trying to fool the public into believing that Joe Biden is not crazy and Harris is popular. But this was not the case. The mainstream media used this trick until Biden ruined his career in the debate with Trump and Harris lost the election. However, while establishment media and large technology platforms lie to the public, Polymarket made it clear that Trump is the person most likely to win. The establishment was so angry that the public had a real barometer of the election that the CEO of Polymarket came under fire.
In other parts of the world, authorities may pre-emptively ban Polymarket to prevent real, unfiltered public opinion from being expressed in real time. France bans Polymarket. Why should France care about the political prediction market in a non-election year? President Macron is deeply unpopular, but he will not allow new elections until necessary in 2027. If there is a real-time market showing Marina Le Pen is most likely to win the 2027 French election, that will not be a good thing for him and his political allies. This could accelerate the collapse of his globalist order in France. Therefore, Polymarket must disappear.
If the goal is a globally accessible, easy to understand, and impossible to ban, then political Memecoin traded on DEX is the perfect tool.
Three attributes of political Meme coins
Let’s evaluate political Meme coins based on three attributes needed to create a global political popular market:
Globally accessible:
Meme coins are just a unique public address that issues a certain number of tokens that exist on the public blockchain. The DEX itself is a code fragment executed on a public blockchain where you can trade these tokens. The most popular trading pair is [Memecoin / USDe ]. As a result, anyone with a connected device can trade political Memecoin.
Easy to understand:
Do you like this politician and are willing to express your support?
Do you believe that others like this politician or will like this politician in the future?
You only need to answer these two questions before you decide to buy Political Memecoin.
People buy TRUMP because they want to be part of a Trump supporter group, or they believe Trump’s popularity will increase in the future.
That’s it. You don’t need to understand any fancy economic or financial theory. You don’t need to understand algebra, basic calculus, statistics or probability theory. You just need to think and feel like an energetic person. Therefore, anyone can understand what gives political memecoin value.
It is impossible to prohibit:
Memecoins are built on a public blockchain, which itself exists because miners or verifiers run specific software. At a high level, to destroy the public chain, you need to remove all miners/validators and then shut down the Internet.
With the current size and penetration rate of the public chain, it is impossible to remove all miners/validators. It’s like whacking a mole. Once the operator is removed from the network, profit incentives attract others to join.
Because modern society relies on Internet-connected devices, governments cannot shut down the Internet and survive as a regulatory agency in their current form.
So while governments can severely criticize Memecoin’s negative impact from their own perspective and selectively prosecute individuals and companies that provide or participate in Memecoin transactions, they will never be able to eradicate Memecoin on a large scale. Trying to do this will only make Memecoin trading more popular.
What does Political Memecoin tell us about politicians?
Since participants vote with their wallets, Memecoin is the purest and most honest indicator of popularity. When people talk to pollsters or friends, they often lie about their true political views for fear of going against the public. The Memecoin transaction is a zero-knowledge proof of political popularity, and unless the trader reveals his identity, no one knows who owns or trades what. Given that real digital currencies are in jeopardy, there is no point in buying $TRUMP if you hate Trump or think his popularity will not rise. If you thought so, you wouldn’t buy it at all, or you would short the $TRUMP/USDe perpetual contract. This is why the price trend of $TRUMP shows its true global popularity.
A sense of belonging and greed are the two most powerful motivators in Memecoin trading. So I believe we can infer the specific situation of politicians by looking at their Memecoin charts. If the price of Memecoin rises, it means that people are satisfied with current and expected policies, and if the price falls, it means that they are dissatisfied. As political Memecoin transactions proliferate, we will be able to identify changes in popularity directly based on discrete policy outcomes. Bills passed, wars fought, speeches delivered, etc. will immediately affect citizens, which can be observed by looking at the price performance of specific political Memecoin after events.
Most politicians only want the public to know when others like them, not when others despise them. So why did they launch their own Memecoin? I believe that in so-called democracies, it will become a political necessity for any politician to formally recognize his Memecoin. To understand why, let’s discuss how to win the election.
Political Memecoin as a campaign tool
To win elections, politicians must get people to come out and vote. This is difficult to do because voters have so many other things to do. But if the politician owns Memecoin and you buy it, then the vote is in your best interest so that it can preserve its value. As a result, Memecoin is the best political participation tool ever created. They directly link economic gains to the voting support of each voter, not just large campaign donors.
As long as challengers support political Memecoin in a particular campaign, they have the upper hand. This is because they can provide a direct financial benefit to voting out without paying. Memecoin is the most effective form of political advertising because they can serve as viral digital word-of-mouth promotion. Trump made a quick hit and just enacted campaign finance reform, which I don’t think he even knew.
To activate their supporters, challengers will participate in online events at no cost. Trump won the 2024 election because he was willing to appear on podcasts like Joe Rogan. The next major election cycle will be decided on X-spaces or Discord channels. The goal of politicians is to discuss their political platforms and increase the number of Memecoin holders. Using the Internet and social media, one-to-many conversations are free; building communities is difficult and time-consuming. However, when everyone can benefit financially from political success, it is much easier to build a community of enthusiastic supporters. This is much more effective than radio, television or Internet advertising.
Many “old-school” politicians won’t believe me. At least in the United States, the 2026 election will see a flood of new personal political brands created through Memecoin that will defeat the supposedly invincible incumbent. What if Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi and Maxine Waters all lost to the upstart in their own party because of political Memecoin?
Although we will have to wait a few years before the political Memecoin earthquake shakes peace under American rule, its impact may soon be felt in Europe. Germany will hold new elections next week. The establishment is doing everything it can to prevent the AfD (Alternative for Germany) from taking power. What would happen if the AfD created a large number of political Memecoin for every MP running for? What if they became Germany’s largest political party and received so much support that it would be impossible to form a government without their participation?
I know time is running out, but creating a political Memecoin takes less time than being denied entry into the Bundestag.
What would happen if, after the reorganization of the British Conservative Party, Kelstamer was forced to hold a new election instead of wanting young girls to be seduced by creepy old men? Can Reform Britain launch a series of political Memecoin backed by future MPs to regain the British Parliament? I don’t know, but Memecoin is the most popular way to spread the wisdom of the masses, and Trump just opened Pandora’s Box.
Campaign Finance Thought Experiment
For any reader with new ideas and a desire to serve society but with empty pockets, this article can serve as a blueprint to fund your budding political career.
Let’s make a joke. Imagine bankrupt Infowars host Alex Jones hoping to run for a seat in the New York State U.S. Senate in 2026 against powerful incumbent Chuck Schumer. Alex clearly has no money or credibility as a large corporate donor. While people may agree with some of his points, no one is willing to take risks for losers in broad daylight.
Alex decided to raise money for his campaign by issuing $JONES Memecoin. At the time of release, only 10% of the supply was in circulation, and 90% was held by Alex’s campaign organization and was not locked. Experienced Memecoin traders may shout “RUG PILL” because the campaign holds a large number of unlocked tokens. But campaigns need to raise money by selling tokens.
Anyone who buys $JONES implicitly understands that they are the exit liquidity of the campaign. Campaigns must raise money by selling Memecoin, so by buying $JONES at a higher price, the buyer is effectively donating to Alex’s campaign. However, the possibility that Alex will win is that the price of $JONES will soar.
$JONES holders will be inspired to promote Alex’s political platform and how it will benefit the district to everyone. This would bring in more buyers, allowing the campaign to raise more money by selling Memecoin, which would increase Alex’s chances of winning, raising the price of $JONES, and so on and on. In addition, Schadenfreude may prompt many buyers to buy $JONES to support the establishment, as it will be interesting to see Schumer lose to Alex Jones.
This is how political saboteurs savvy in Web3 fund campaigns and create viral marketing machines.
Before discussing how Maelstrom will profit from the future of political Memecoin, I want to talk about some of the negative sentiments surrounding this new asset class.
Opposing political Memecoin and its refutation
It’s funny to hear those cryptocurrency people scoff at political Memecoin. I will go through some of the main complaints and the reasons why I disagree.
Politicians should not use their power for gain.
The easiest way to allay this concern is to distribute 100% of the tokens at the time of issuance. Then, if politicians want to believe in themselves, they will enter the market at the same price as everyone else. If their popularity rises, they will personally benefit, but I would rather do this than accept bribes and pseudo-bribes from wealthy companies and individuals behind the scenes. If politicians could make more money more transparently by simply holding their Memecoin, then they would do the right thing for the people, not the right thing for the rich, because popularity would become very profitable.
$TRUMP looks like a fraud because his family and close partners hold 80% of the supply. However, I don’t believe it. Token economics is well known. If you choose to buy it, you will buy it with your eyes open. That’s much better than the Biden family enriching their pockets by providing large amounts of secret bribes from foreign companies to this or that super-secret corporate entity. Well, if the people who collect the money weren’t drug addicts, they’d become super secretive.
When $TRUMP is dumped, it will destroy retail holders and set the industry back many years.
Memecoin volatility is a feature, not a flaw. Cryptocurrency is a free market, with stocks controlled by central banks, commercial banks and governments. Everyone knows this and knows that the game is manipulated. Remember GameStop? Cryptocurrency, for better or worse, is a globally competitive free market without governing institutions. If people can now express their views on politicians through financial markets, it is progress. If politicians deceive their followers, they will be elected out of office.
Trump should focus on developing regulations that support cryptocurrencies, not Memecoin.
I think Trump has unwittingly provided the people with a new weapon against political corruption. This is why mainstream media tries to cover up this phenomenon. They realized that the improper trading of election advertisements and campaign funds would come to an abrupt end. They also recognize that political movements that are not allowed to win can now change common sense by showing the right political Memecoin price.
Memecoin, especially political Memecoin, is useless; the industry should reinvent “real” technology.
Anyone who says that has a bunch of zombie cryptocurrencies in their portfolio. Or they are the founders of a project whose token price has been falling. They see people expressing their enthusiasm through a trading culture and express dissatisfaction that they are not doing something “useful” with their money. They only believe that if civilians ‘money goes into their pockets, it will be “useful”. Fuck yourself and your junk coins.
Political Memecoin as an asset class
Maelstrom can benefit from this movement in several ways.
L1 blockchain
The L1 blockchain benefits from Memecoin transactions because each transaction must pay for gas in native tokens. Obviously, Solana is the chain for most Memecoin transactions and is also the chain launched by $TRUMP. However, according to Moonshot statistics, 50% of wallets holding $TRUMP are Solana’s new wallets, with almost no funds in them. Therefore, Solana is not necessarily the chain of most political Memecoin transactions.
You all know what I’m going to say. Remember, Maelstrom does not provide services for free. We believe Aptos has the opportunity to monopolize this market. This depends on speed and cost. Aptos has the fastest block time and cheapest transaction fees of all L1s. The way Aptos wins this market is by integrating seamlessly with the Web2 platform that has users. Aptos was born at Web2 giant Facebook, and its team is capable of carrying out such collaborations. Stay tuned!
Spot.dog
Jupiter and Raydium are the two most popular places to trade Memecoin online. Their tokens are performing very well and transaction volume will continue to increase. However, the user experience is more suitable for native cryptocurrency users. For those who just want to imitate their favorite politician’s Memecoin, Spot.dog (Maelstrom Portfolio Company) provides a better, simpler Memecoin trading user experience. Thanks to their partnership with Stocktwits, they have a large user base, and we believe this will become the first choice for ordinary people to trade Memecoin.
Political Memecoin derivatives
option
Political Memecoin has spawned the need for options trading. This is because discrete events, such as elections or votes on a bill, can cause dramatic changes in the popularity and price of a particular Memecoin. The best way to express a bullish or bearish view on the outcome is to use options where you have the right but not the obligation to buy (call) or sell (put) at a predetermined strike price. Platforms such as Derive (Maelstrom Portfolio Company) are well suited to exploring these markets.
On-chain ETF
In the near future, when every politician around the world supports his own political Memecoin, traders will want to trade a basket of Memecoin related to specific political parties. Imagine if you could trade the popularity of Democrats and Republicans in the United States based on the price of votes for all elected members of the House. Alternatively, in parliamentary system, you can trade British Labour and Conservative Party. Maelstrom would definitely invest in an agreement that would allow for the easy creation, listing, trading and redemption of these types of political Memecoin ETFs.
Politics in Non-Western Countries
Will some Western leaders launch their own political Memecoin? No, not now, but maybe in the future.
Although it is great to enjoy the glory of the people through objective standards, there are also some drawbacks when your words and deeds cause the price of Memecoin to drop. In the end, every leader, whether democratically elected or not, will support their own political Memecoin, because when it comes to political popularity, people will no longer trust dishonest pollsters and propaganda mainstream media machines. They would ask for a political Memecoin and eventually issue a political Memecoin.
Political Memecoin as a barometer
Narcissism is a necessary character trait for successful politicians. They must be confident in their unique ability to plan a better future for all and constantly tell everyone how great they are. So I believe Trump checks the price of $TRUMP as often as he checks the level of the S & P 500, which means he checks all the time.
$TRUMP has fallen about 80% from its high, and Bitcoin has yet to recover the $110,000 (the level reached at the peak of the $TRUMP mania). I believe that if cryptocurrency sentiment improves,$TRUMP will lead Bitcoin. If politicians believe that certain policies will have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies, then $TRUMP will rise sharply before the good news is announced, and then Bitcoin will follow.
Given that other major fiat currency issuance centers are responding to Trump’s macroeconomic and monetary policies, the United States is in the lead, followed by the rest of the world. As a result, I listed $TRUMP as a prominent part of my cryptocurrency watch list. If I see it soaring or falling quickly, then I know something is happening.
We have entered a new stage in the crypto capital market. Now, we will have a large number of forward-looking tools that can leverage political factors that directly affect the direction of cryptocurrency prices.
The game has begun!
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