GuShiio.com How is the crypto market progressing? If there is still room for Bitcoin to rise, is this the periodic bottom range of the market?
Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
In December 2024, the market has fallen from the top, and the market has been volatile for several months. Many players have suffered heavy losses in the endless downward trend and volatile market conditions. Market noise is also seriously divided on bulls and bears and long short positions. The macro environment is unstable, Trump wields the big stick of tariffs, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts are still in the distance, market liquidity is tightening, and community pessimism is spreading.
So how is the crypto market progressing? If there is still room for Bitcoin to rise, is this the periodic bottom range of the market?
1. The panic index has been below 40 since February this year
The CMC Fear and Greed Index is a measure of overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market on CoinMarketCap. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a lower value indicating extreme fear in the market, and a higher value indicating extreme greed in the market. The index helps investors understand the emotional state of the market and plan buying and selling decisions. In addition, it can provide reference information as to whether the market is undervalued (extreme fear) or overvalued (extreme greed).
As shown in the above chart, from July to early October 2024, the market experienced many times when the panic index fell below 40 (panic). Then, FOMO sentiment appeared in November of that year. The index once exceeded 80, and then the market fell back. At present, the market has fallen below 40 again since the beginning of February this year.
The lower the panic index in the market, it often means that the possible currency price may be in a periodic bottom range.
2. Bitcoin’s 7-day average fund interest rate fell 85% compared with December last year
The 7-day average capital interest rate of perpetual contracts can be used as one of the important indicators for observing market sentiment. When the market is hot, the interest rate on funds often remains high, and it is often the top range of the market cycle. On the contrary, it often becomes the bottom range of the market.
As shown in the above chart, the 7-day average funding rate of BTC in March 2024 once exceeded 0.06%, indicating that the market is willing to pay high costs for long funds. The market sentiment is extremely FOMO, which also became the highest point in the Q1 quarter of that year. From November to December 2024, its funds interest rate was still above 0.03%, and Bitcoin once exceeded the US$100,000 mark at this time. However, before the market took off, Bitcoin’s 7-day average funds interest rate was from May of that year. There was a negative interest rate for a time in October.
As of writing, the funding rate once reached 0.004%, down 85% from the peak in December. Market sentiment is pessimistic.
3. ETH profit ratio hit a new low in 4 months
The market value of Ethereum has fallen 36% since its local high seven weeks ago, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of profitable ETH. Judging from the daily closing data, the current ETH profit ratio hit a four-month low, and the number of profit tokens has also dropped to a three-month low.
As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, Ethereum has performed worse than other large-cap currencies, and market sentiment has fallen into significant negative proportions. Despite the current panic mood (FUD) and continued selling by retail investors, once the crypto market stabilizes, Ethereum may rebound.
4. Bitcoin miners surrendered again since early February this year, and the difficulty of mining has increased instead of decreasing
Surrender by Bitcoin miners is often seen as one of the important reference indicators for the bottom of the market. The surrender of miners means that the profit of a bitcoin dug out by the market is lower than the cost. Historical data shows that the time when bitcoin miners surrender is often the bottom range of the market.
The above figure shows that since 2024, Bitcoin miners have surrendered in June and October this year. For the first time since 2025, Bitcoin miners surrendered in February.
At the same time, the difficulty of mining Bitcoin has recently hit a record high of 114.7 T. A record high difficulty usually indicates that miners are still optimistic about the long-term value of Bitcoin, otherwise they will not continue to invest computing power. This may have a certain positive impact on market sentiment.
5. The market value of stablecoins has increased instead of falling in the past month
stablecoin data is one of the important reference data for observing market capital inflows. In the past month, according to DefiLlama, the market value of USDT increased by 3.4%(US$4.676 billion), while USDC increased by 22.73%(US$10.396 billion).
If calculated from January 1, 2025, the market value of USDT has increased from US$137.17 billion to the current US$141.9 billion, an increase of US$4.73 billion.
USDC data has increased from US$43.77 billion to US$56.28 billion today.
summary
The above five major data may imply that the market may be in a phased bottom range, but it is difficult to make an assertion as to when the market will leave the bottom range. It is worth noting for investors that even if some tokens are currently in the bottom range, some tokens that are unpopular, have no narrative, have no fundamentals, and are constantly unlocked in huge amounts will have difficulty gaining financial attention or will face the dilemma of continuing to fall.
