GuShiio.com ① The U.S. CPI inflation exceeded expectations across the board in January. The unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate was 3%, and the core CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, both higher than market expectations;
② Rising housing and food costs were the main drivers. Housing costs rose 0.4% in January, food prices rose 0.4%, of which egg prices surged 15.2%.
Financial Union, February 12 (Editor Niu Zhanlin)On Wednesday, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that U.S. CPI inflation exceeded expectations across the board in January, which supported the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance in cutting interest rates.
Specific data showed that the United States recorded an unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate of 3% in January, the largest increase since June 2024 and higher than market expectations of 2.9%; the monthly adjusted CPI rate in January recorded 0.5%, higher than expected. 0.3%, the previous value was 0.4%.
The core CPI excluding food and energy costs rose 3.3% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.1%; the adjusted core CPI monthly rate in January recorded 0.4%, the largest increase since March 2024, higher than the expected 0.3%, the previous value was 0.3%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics pointed out that housing costs, which account for about one-third of the weight of CPI, continue to be a major factor driving inflation, rising 0.4% in January. This means that if housing costs are not effectively controlled, inflation may remain high or even intensify.
Food prices rose 0.4%, including egg prices soaring 15.2% in a month, linked to the ongoing bird flu problem that has forced farmers to cull millions of poultry.
Data shows that this is the largest increase in egg prices since June 2015, accounting for about two-thirds of the increase in household food prices. Egg prices have increased by 53% in the past year.
After the data was released, the three major futures indexes of U.S. stocks collectively plunged before the market. Spot gold fell short-term and then surged higher. The yields of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds rose, and Bitcoin fell to a one-week low.
Just the day before, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in Congress that because the U.S. economy is performing well, the Fed does not have to rush to decide when and whether to cut interest rates.
When talking about inflation, Powell pointed out that inflation made great progress in curbing inflation last year, but it has not been smooth recently. Therefore, I believe that the current policy interest rate is in an appropriate position, and there is no reason to rush to cut interest rates further.
“Fed mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos commented that January’s strong inflation data made the Fed’s reasons for further “recalibration” of interest rate cuts before mid-year untenable.
Alex Coffey, senior trading strategist at Schwab Financial, said that not only is people questioning whether the Fed will cut interest rates in the second half of this year, the next step may be to raise interest rates. Inflation has brought all options back to the table and further postponed interest rate cuts. discussion.
Interest rate futures traders currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates by only 26 basis points through December, down from about 37 basis points before the data was released, which means there will be only one 25 basis point rate cut this year.
Next, against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty about the economic impact of the Trump administration’s trade, immigration and fiscal policies, U.S. inflation is likely to rise further.
