Original title: The Bull Case for $MKR $SKY
Author: Taiki Maeda, CEO of HFAResearch
Original compilation: ChatGPT

Editor’s note: The author believes that $MKR (now $SKY) is expected to perform well in the first quarter/second quarter of 2025, mainly due to the US$30 million monthly repurchase program, near historical highs of DAI/USDS supply, and the growth momentum brought by the upcoming SPK farming. Although the re-branding has not been favored by the market, its strong fundamentals, coupled with the potential benefits of the U.S. stablecoin bill, have positive prospects in the coming months.

The following is the original content (the original content has been compiled for ease of reading and understanding):

In this article, I will explain why $MKR will outperform most crypto assets in the risk-adjusted first/second quarter of 2025.

The reasons for MKR’s bullish are as follows:

·A $30 million monthly repurchase program has been launched

·Despite depressed sentiment, DAI/USDS supply is near record highs

· SPK farming is about to start (money printing machine)

Note: MKR has been rebranded as $SKY, so they are actually the same token. DAI was also rebranded as USDS.

The repurchase is back

That’s right, the repurchase is back. This time at an accelerated speed.

After the proposal was implemented on February 24, an additional $55 million in USDS has been earmarked for repurchase. The repurchase will proceed at a rate of $30 million per month, or approximately $1 million per day.

In fact, this repurchase could be more because the agreement itself is profitable (net income per year of $125 million, or $10.42 million per month), as shown below.

Considering that $MKR is currently priced at $1600, a $30 million buying pressure would mean the agreement would repurchase approximately 1.9% of the total supply. To give you some comparison,@MicroStrategy has purchased 2% of the Bitcoin supply over the past 4.5 years. I don’t think this buying pressure and its speed have yet to be priced by the market.

We attribute the main reason for MKR’s poor performance in 2024 to re-branding, a move that has not been welcomed by the market. However, the USDS is actually growing, falling to $4.5 billion at its lowest. “Mood down, fundamentals up” provides a good growth narrative opportunity for a light coin (some may call it a hated rebound).

SPK Tokens Launched

Spark, a $3 billion TVL lending market and asset management platform, spun off from MakerDAO. This article hints that SPK farming and TGE will be carried out in the near future, which will provide more assistance to repurchase firepower.

SPK will be a “Fair Offer/Farm” token, and you can only farm by pledging USDS or SKY (see economics details). This means that the demand to pledge USDS/SKY for farming may increase, thereby increasing indicators such as stablecoin supply, revenue and profits.

Other SubDAOs/Stars (such as Solana Star, RWA Star, etc.) will also be launched one after another, which will further promote future buybacks.

stablecoin act

For those of you who are not following regulatory developments in the United States, the stablecoin Act, the U.S. stablecoin Guidance and National Innovation Establishment Act (GENIUS), aims to create a federal framework for the issuance and regulation of payment stablecoins in the United States.

It’s unclear which players (other than Circle) the bill will benefit, but if we see the GENIUS bill forming a stronger narrative and generating more headlines, we think MKR may steadily become one of the liquidity traders in stablecoin-related projects, providing exposure to this narrative. Although this is weaker than other catalysts, it represents another reason why market participants may be willing to increase their MKR positions; it is not difficult to see that the demand side of the coin may be gradually accumulating, benefiting bulls.

conclusion

Sky’s re-branding has failed somewhat, but this may already be reflected in the price (downward trend from April 2024 to February 2025). Looking forward, based on the reasons outlined in this article, we have every reason to believe that the next few months will be positive for MKR. Finally, despite the small sample size, we often see MKR performing well in uncertain or volatile market environments, and this market outlook is most likely for the foreseeable future.

“Original link”