GuShiio.com ① Although M1 under the new caliber has entered a positive growth range, experts said that the current recovery elasticity of corporate production and household consumption activity may still be relatively weak, and relevant indicators should be paid attention to in the future.
② The better financial data in January is also related to the early Spring Festival this year. In the follow-up, further attention should be paid to the stability and sustainability of effective credit demand, and effective measures should continue to be taken to stabilize the expectations and confidence of business entities.
Financial Union, February 14 (Reporter Wang Hong)Financial data for the first month of 2025 was released. At the end of January, the M2 balance increased by 7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month. Although M1 under the new caliber has entered a positive growth range, industry experts said that the current recovery elasticity of enterprise production and household consumption activity may still be relatively weak, and relevant indicators should be paid attention to in the future.
Credit got off to a good start in January, with RMB loans increasing by 5.13 trillion yuan, and credit growth rate of 7.5%. Among them, corporate medium and long-term loans both increased slightly under a high base. Experts said that the better financial data in January is also related to the early Spring Festival this year. In the follow-up, further attention should be paid to the stability and sustainability of effective credit demand, and effective measures should continue to be taken to stabilize the expectations and confidence of business entities. In addition, the growth rate of social finance in January was 8%, unchanged from the previous month; credit “got off to a good start” and the pace of government bond issuance moved forward, which strongly boosted the growth of social finance.
M1 caliber was adjusted for the first time, and M2 growth rate dropped month-on-month
Data showed that at the end of January, the M2 balance increased by 7% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points month-on-month; the M1 balance increased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the revised M1 entered a positive growth range.
Since January this year, personal current and non-bank payment institution reserves have been officially included in the revised M1 statistical caliber, and the growth trend of M1 under the new caliber has attracted much attention.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that after adjusting the caliber, it was retrospectively estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of M1 in December last year was 1.2%, which was higher than the actual announced value of-1.4%, and the negative growth rate narrowed. In addition, under the new caliber, residents ‘current periods are included in M1, which eliminates the impact of the “seesaw effect” on public and retail sales on M1 under the Spring Festival effect, and reduces the volatility of M1.
Regarding the slight decline in M2 ‘s growth rate month-on-month, Wen Bin believes that after being included in self-regulatory management, including inter-bank current, some high-interest non-bank deposits in the early period may flow to foreign-managed products on the balance sheet, which has caused a major drag on M2. In January this year, non-bank and government deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 1.67 trillion yuan year-on-year; the intensity of financial return was relatively weak, and financial diversion affected factors such as M2 growth.
“After the new caliber M1 was further included in resident demand deposits and non-bank payment institution customer reserves, the year-on-year growth rate recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4%, which was 0.8% lower than the same comparable caliber in December, and the growth rate scissors gap between M2 and M2 also rebounded slightly.” Mingming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that even taking into account the special factors of residents ‘cash withdrawal during the Spring Festival, the current resilience of corporate production and residents’ consumption activity may still be relatively weak, and we should pay attention to relevant indicators and trend changes in the future.
Credit investment was generally stable at the beginning of the year, and banks had strong demands for a “good start”
Data showed that RMB loans increased by 5.13 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 210 billion yuan year-on-year, and credit growth was 7.5%.
“Credit lending was generally stable at the beginning of the year.” Mingming said that structurally, in terms of corporate loans, medium-and long-term loans and short-term loans both recorded small increases under the high base. In particular, the former’s year-on-year negative growth turned positive for several consecutive months, reflecting the bank’s project reserve work at the end of the year was carried out well, and the demand for a “good start” to be at the forefront of bank loan lending was strong.
However, it was clearly emphasized that considering that indicators such as PMI and inflation in the previous January economic data were still relatively weak, the economic boom at the beginning of the year still needs to be observed. At the same time, it is also necessary to track the impact of subsequent localized debt promotion on corporate credit financing.
“In terms of retail loans, residents ‘medium and long-term loans both experienced negative growth year-on-year. On the one hand, the current real estate market is still in a stabilizing stage, and seasonal dislocation before the Spring Festival holiday will also cause certain disturbances,” Mingming also pointed out.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Alliance, said that the better financial data in January was also related to the earlier Spring Festival this year. This year’s Spring Festival will be advanced to January, and some credit needs and salary and bonus payments will be released in advance to January. Demand for funds may decrease in February. Further attention should be paid to the stability and sustainability of effective credit demand, and effective measures should continue to be taken to stabilize the expectations and confidence of business entities.
“In terms of overall trends, with the introduction of a series of related policies such as promoting consumption in 2025, it is expected that the release and new additions of retail loans will be better than in 2024,” Wen Bin said.
The growth rate of social finance in January was unchanged from the previous month
Data showed that new social finance increased by 7.06 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 583.3 billion yuan year-on-year under a high base; the growth rate of social finance was 8%, unchanged from the previous month.
Mingming said that structurally, the year-on-year increase in social finance this month was concentrated in RMB loans and government bonds. Since January, the pace of issuance of local government bonds in various places has accelerated compared with the beginning of last year. Some of the special bonds mainly correspond to the replacement of hidden bonds proposed at the end of last year, which to a certain extent supports the performance of social finance data at the beginning of the year.
Wen Bin also believes that the “good start” of credit and the moving pace of government bond issuance have strongly boosted the growth of social finance. “Looking at the follow-up, the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds throughout the year will increase compared with last year to better exert the effect of stabilizing growth. Local governments will focus on promoting the clearing of hidden bonds and replacing bonds. With the significant increase in the scale of government bond issuance and the overall stability of the total amount of credit, the increase in social financing throughout the year is expected to remain at a high level.”
