GuShiio.com Stock index: Technology style continues to dominate; black sector: support below is still in place; energy and chemical industry: The advancement of tariff policies has triggered demand concerns, and the combined US consumer confidence index fell short of expectations, and international oil prices fell sharply overnight; non-ferrous metals: Most non-ferrous metals are under pressure; Agricultural products: Waiting for forecast data on US soybean planting area tomorrow
Summary of Dongwu Futures, strategic partners of Cailian Union (please click for more inquiries)
2025.02.26
“Variety Trend Overview”
“Special Interpretation of Variety”
Stock index: Technology style continues to dominate
Stock index.As the two sessions are approaching in late February, policy expectations will gradually ferment, there is limited room for downside in the index, and market risk appetite will pick up, which is conducive to a stronger growth style. After the Spring Festival, the TMT sector performed strongly. Currently, the congestion rate of the TMT sector has exceeded 40%. Excessive congestion may trigger phased adjustments, but industrial catalysis and policy support will support the fundamentals of the technology sector. Therefore, if the technology sector adjusts due to overheating transactions, it is still the time to layout after adjustment. It is recommended to allocate IC and IM on dips.
Black plate: Lower support is still in place
Scroll.The market continued to weaken. Domestic demand had not yet reached the full verification period. Due to tariffs, the market was worried about exports, and prices fell. In the short term, after the decline in rebar is close to the electricity cost of electric furnaces, it is expected that there will still be some support. It is expected to be dominated by shocks, and the price difference between hot coils and threads will be around 100.
Iron ore.Iron ore prices continued to fall, and supply began to pick up after the weather disturbance ended. At the same time, demand for steel products was expected to weaken, mainly due to concerns about exports due to tariff increases. In the short term, demand did not improve further, and the market lacked upward driving force. It is expected that the market will be dominated by market fluctuations.
Bifocal.Coke has started its tenth round of price declines, and the spot trend continues to be weak, with weak support for the market. However, demand is gradually improving. Coupled with the approaching two sessions, dual focus may have the possibility of environmentally friendly production restrictions. The space below is not expected to be very large, and the overall operation is still dominated by shocks.
Glass.The daily production and sales rate of glass fell again. The production and sales rate of Shahe, the main producing area, dropped to 67.6%, and the national production and sales rate fell back to 81.5%. Short-term prices are still operating under pressure, and we pay attention to the downstream replenishment situation at the end of the month and the beginning of the month.
Soda ash.The market trend has weakened, mainly because the current decline in output is not obvious and supply disturbances have little impact. However, the soda factory still has the willingness to overhaul it in advance, and there is still support at the bottom of the price. Over-considered inventories can also suppress prices above. Therefore, it is expected that soda ash will generally operate in fluctuations within the range. Pay attention to the subsequent alkali plant maintenance plan.
Energy and Chemical Industry: The advancement of tariff policies has triggered demand concerns, combined with the U.S. consumer confidence index falling short of expectations, and international oil prices fell sharply overnight
crude oil.Oil prices fell overnight, and the United States was preparing to impose additional tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting on March 4 as scheduled. This may aggravate inflation concerns and cause the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate cuts, thereby weakening economic growth and crude oil demand expectations. The short-term market is still affected by geopolitical factors such as tariffs, sanctions, and US-Russia talks. It is concerned about OPEC+’s decision to increase production in April. The recent drop in oil prices has increased the probability of postponing production increases again.
asphalt.Asphalt industry data for the third week of February showed that refinery operating rates and shipments increased. While factory and warehouse inventories dropped slightly, social inventories continued to rise, indicating that winter storage contracts began to be implemented one after another. Oil prices fell sharply during the overnight market break, and asphalt is expected to open low and fluctuate weakly in the short term.
LPG。In March, CP held downward expectations, and the international market fell back. Propane is currently maintaining a discount to naphtha, and the level of chemical gross profit may still be sustainable. Strong domestic chemical demand makes the off-season pressure relatively limited. Refinery releases have increased, domestic gas sales pressure has begun to increase, and import price differences may shrink. Spot shocks weakened, but strong chemical demand and new warehouse receipts registration formed top support for the market.
Rubber.At present, foreign natural rubber supply is in a low production period. Among them, China’s production areas have completely stopped cutting, Vietnam and northeastern Thailand and other production areas are in a period of suspension of cutting, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has dropped slightly. The tire operating rate continues to rise, and tire companies have fully resumed production and resumed work. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao fell slightly to 568,600 tons, the social inventory of cis-1,400 tons in China rose to 14,700 tons, and the inventory of upstream butadiene ports in China fell slightly to 34,200 tons. Overall, downstream demand has fully recovered, rubber supply pressure has eased, spot inventories have diverged, and synthetic rubber costs have driven downward.
Pulp.Shandong Silver Star’s spot price is 6600 yuan/ton, and the price is stable; Hebei Black Needle Cloth Needle Price is 5975 yuan/ton; broadleaf pulp Star Price is 4800 yuan/ton, and the price is stable. The sample inventory of pulp ports in China was 2.273 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons from the previous period and a month-on-month decrease of 1.3%. The inventory of the main port turned into a trend of dewarehousing this week after two consecutive weeks. After the holiday, port inventories are on the high side. Currently, feedback from downstream demand is general, and pulp procurement is general. Pay attention to subsequent domestic imports and external quotations.
Methanol.In the short term, due to the impact of inbound goods from the mainland and the impact of parking in Ningbo Fude, the port depots fell short of expectations, and market sentiment weakened. However, after the current price difference between mainland and coastal areas has narrowed, the inflow of mainland goods has decreased, and the MTO plant is also expected to restart in the near future. In view of the fact that the mainland’s spring inspections have begun to gradually materialize, the peak season expectations of the traditional demand for “gold, three, silver and four” cannot yet be falsified. In the first quarter, the 05 contract can still be long or allocated at a low level. The space above is limited by the macro atmosphere, MTO profits, and port inventory removal. The extent of transformation and the support for coal prices. In the second quarter, with the comprehensive restart of Iran’s methanol plant, the return of imports may cause the port to show a trend of accumulating warehouses, and the 09 contract is temporarily viewed as empty.
Polyolefins.The static fundamentals have strengthened month-on-month amid declining supply and returning demand. Coupled with the strong 1-butene market expectation that LL supply will decline and PP export preference, market sentiment has marginally warmed up. However, from the perspective of inventory performance, the overall inventory removal in the upper and middle reaches is not smooth. In the short term, structural improvement has occurred due to the easing of production cuts and exports, but the marginal improvement is within expectations, and prices are more likely to rebound rather than reverse. Against the background of profit expansion and temporary difficulties in de-warehousing, the short-term position remains unchanged.
Non-ferrous metals: Most non-ferrous metals are under pressure
Precious metals.COMEX gold futures fell 1.12%, and spot gold fell 1.22%, falling throughout the day. Concerns about a trade war persist. Investors chose to take profits after the gold price reached a record high in the previous trading day, and the gold price corrected. Factors such as tariffs, potential inflation and geopolitical uncertainty are expected to continue to support gold prices.
Copper.The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s consumer confidence index fell in February, the largest decline in three years. U.S. economic growth expectations resumed disturbance. Domestic market news said that Wang Yiming said that China’s CPI in February is expected to fall moderately year-on-year. Market sentiment at home and abroad has cooled simultaneously, putting pressure on copper prices. The shortage of raw materials has intensified, the price of copper concentrate processing fees has fallen again, and scrap copper has also tightened with the increase in downstream demand for resumption of work and production. The demand side has been affected by the rapid rise in copper prices, and expectations for new orders have weakened. Social inventories of electrolytic copper continue to increase. Market sentiment weakened during the day, and copper prices were under slight pressure, but the space below was relatively limited as the shortage of raw materials became increasingly prominent.
Aluminum/alumina.In terms of alumina, there were some small-scale overhauls or production cuts on the supply side, and the demand side was generally stable. However, export demand increased, and market short-selling sentiment was gradually released, driving price stabilization. In terms of electrolytic aluminum, the supply side continues to be repaired. The rapid rise in aluminum prices in the early stage has slowed down the release of downstream orders, and the warehouse continues to accumulate during the week. However, overseas needs to pay attention to as much as 90% of LME aluminum stocks are held by one party, and inventory concentration is too high. In general, when long-term supply pressure is always released, the space above alumina is limited, and the weakening of market sentiment has put pressure on aluminum prices to fall, focusing on expected changes in the peak season.
Zinc.The supply of raw materials has been repaired, TC has continued to rise, domestic zinc ingot output has continued to rise month-on-month, supply-side contradictions have improved marginally, short-term market sentiment has cooled, and zinc prices have been under pressure.
Nickel.Both Indonesia and the Philippines, two major nickel producers, experienced disturbances, and support below nickel prices strengthened. At the same time, pure nickel will maintain high growth and high inventories in 2025, while overseas nickel ore policies are still uncertain, and the space above nickel prices is not very optimistic, and range operating ideas will be maintained.
Lithium carbonate:After the holiday, the operating rate of lithium carbonate production rebounded rapidly. Last week’s output was 17164 tons, a year-on-year increase of 142.29%, exceeding the highest weekly output in 2024 (16340 tons). Supply exceeded expectations and increased inventories continued to accumulate. Lithium carbonate prices fell back to the bottom range. Lithium ore prices are stable, while demand for power batteries is still there. In January, power batteries were produced 107800Mwh, a year-on-year increase of 65,34%, and bottom support is still in place. It is expected that the short-term trend of lithium carbonate will be volatile and weak, focusing on macro and industrial changes.
Agricultural products: waiting for forecast data on future US soybean planting area
grease.Oil generally strengthened for a while under the leadership of a rebound in palm oil in intraday trading yesterday, but weakened again in the late session. Fundamental news, the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) released data that Malaysia’s palm oil production decreased by 5.78% month-on-month in the first 20 months of February, continuing the seasonal production cuts since September last year. In addition, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said that Malaysia’s palm oil stocks will drop to 1.5 million tons at the end of February, the lowest level in nearly two years. Overall, the fundamentals of palm oil are still positive, and there is expected to be limited room for correction. In addition, Trump said yesterday that he would advance the tariff plan on Canada and Mexico as scheduled, which will negative demand for rapeseed oil, while positive demand for soybean oil. The United States is the largest importer of Canadian rapeseed oil.
Soybean meal/rapeseed meal.There has been a recent correction in domestic soybean meal, and there have been no significant changes in fundamentals. Therefore, we believe that the main reason is that the market has diverged after the continued rise, and some funds have begun to leave the market at a profit. Recently, the number of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong has been insufficient, some oil plants have been shut down for maintenance, and factors such as falling soybean meal stocks will still support the soybean meal. In addition, pay attention to the USDA Annual Outlook Forum on Thursday to release its forecast for this year’s U.S. soybean planting area. The market expects that the U.S. soybean planting area will decrease by 3.6% to 84 million acres this year. Therefore, we believe that soybean meal is still expected to strengthen after short-term adjustments.
White sugar.In addition to the increase in Thailand’s output, sugar production in Brazil, India and China all fell to varying degrees year-on-year or fell below expectations, and the situation of oversupply and demand eased somewhat. At present, the dry weather in Guangxi’s production areas has not improved significantly, and we need to focus on the production in the later period. The valuation of the overall global sugar pattern should be better than before the Brazilian fire. It is still in the production increase cycle, and the supply increase trend of the previous two years will continue in 2025. In January, domestic production and sales data were short, production and sales ratios fell year-on-year, inventories increased year-on-year, and sugar prices faced certain pressure.
Cotton.The US dollar has weakened recently, and U.S. cotton futures prices have also rebounded. Cotton planting area in Xinjiang has increased year-on-year, but the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin areas have declined year-on-year. Therefore, domestic cotton output is expected to decline year-on-year in 2025. In terms of spot goods, there is currently an increase in orders for downstream replenishment, but replenishment still falls short of expectations. Recently, the number of start-ups of textile companies has gradually increased, and the shipment of raw materials has improved slightly. In addition, the market demand for “gold, three and four silver” is expected to be good. In addition, domestic proactive macro policies will also form certain support for cotton prices. It is expected that the Zheng cotton market will still show strong shocks in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the expected landing in the peak season.
Pig.The average spot price is 14.9. Overall, retail piglet prices have not been very enthusiastic recently. In addition to the normal demand of some companies to replenish the piglet, farmers have mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, which has led to varying degrees of decline in piglet prices in various regions. As the temperature gradually rises, the demand for fat pigs weakens, which may drive the price of fat tags to narrow. At that time, the expectation of secondary fattening and filling will definitely be limited to convergence, and prices will fluctuate or return to the basic logical adjustment of supply and demand.
Eggs.The average price of pink eggs is about 2.86 yuan/catty, and the average price of red egg areas is about 2.96 yuan/catty. At present, egg stocks have not yet been cleared, and new chicken production is gradually increasing, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. However, with the recent drop in egg prices, the shipment of eggs has accelerated and the number of eggs in cold storage has increased. It is expected that the momentum of continued decline will weaken. Currently, egg prices have dropped below the comprehensive cost line, and the elimination of old chickens has accelerated month-on-month, but it is still difficult to reverse the supply and demand structure, and the shocks are on the short side.
Corn.In the short-term corn market, stocks in the north and south ports are at historical peaks, and the recent increase in corn prices is weak. However, as the pressure on farmers to sell grain continues to decline, China Grain Storage Group’s market purchases and the volume of imported grains arriving in Hong Kong continues to decline, the mentality of both buyers and sellers in the corn market will improve significantly in the future. Judging from the timing and measures of the introduction of the corn policy, we assess that the current corn price is at a relatively low level and there is limited room for further decline.
Approval number for futures investment consulting business: Zheng Jian Xu [2011] No. 1446
Disclaimer:
This report was produced and released by Soochow Futures. The report is written based on information that the Company believes to be reliable and currently public. The Company strives for but does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this information. The opinions expressed do not constitute investment advice to anyone, and investors need to bear their own risks. This report may not be quoted, abridged, modified, or used for other purposes contrary to its original intention without the Company’s prior written authorization.
This report incorporates the analyst’s personal views, opinions and analytical methods when preparing. The views contained in this report do not represent the position of Soochow Futures, so please refer to it carefully. Our company will not bear any form of losses caused by futures trading operations conducted based on this report.
Analyst and Investment Consulting Numbers: Jia Zheng (Z0019779) Zhu Shaonan (Z0015327) Wang Ping (Z000040) Xiao Yu (Z0016296) Chen Mengyun (Z0018178) Xue Tao (Z0020100) Zeng Qi (Z0018916) Peng Xin (Z0019621) Zhuang Yitian (Z0020567) Yang Li (Z0021473) Ling Fan (Z0021486)
The futures market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious!
(Dongwu Futures, a strategic partner of Futures Finance Association,”Click to open an account”)
