Crazy coffee: Coffee beans have risen more than gold. How long can the lucky people worth 9.9 yuan last?

Photo source: Visual China

Blue Whale News, February 12 (Reporter Zhang Jinglun Hao Yan)In addition to gold, the first increase in the beginning of the year, there are also coffee beans!

Recently, coffee futures have been rising all the way. On February 10, Arabica coffee bean futures rose more than 6.8%, setting a new record high above 430 cents. In fact, coffee bean prices have been rising all the way since 2024. Wind data shows that in 2024 alone, the cumulative increase in U.S. ICE coffee futures during the year will reach about 70%. Spot gold in the London market will increase by approximately 27.22% for the whole year of 2024. This means that the increase in coffee beans has exceeded that of gold.

The soaring price of coffee beans has also quickly spread to coffee shops. Some coffee shops have begun to plan to raise prices. Under this trend, how long can you drink coffee worth 9.9 yuan?

Crazy coffee beans

Rita, who has been in the business for more than 10 years, did not expect that the price of coffee beans would continue to rise after rising for an entire year.

“Prices have been increasing since last year, and our quotations are different every time we get the goods. It became even more serious after the year. Rita runs a boutique coffee shop in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and told Blue Whale News that she no longer dares to hoard large quantities due to the excessive increase.

The continued rise in coffee bean prices is related to continued concerns in the global market about the shrinking supply of coffee beans.

According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Overseas Agricultural Services Service, Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for 39% of world coffee production. Vietnam is the second largest coffee producer, accounting for 17% of world coffee production.

Since last year, these two major coffee-producing countries have experienced varying degrees of extreme weather effects.

As the world’s largest producer of Arabica coffee beans, Brazil experienced the worst drought in 70 years in August and September last year, and then suffered heavy rains in October. Extreme weather conditions made the market more worried about the harvest of coffee beans. The latest data released by Brazilian agricultural institutions shows that Brazil’s Arabica coffee bean production in the 2025 – 2026 season is expected to be 51.81 million bags, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%.

Vietnam, the world’s second largest coffee producer and the largest producer of Robusta coffee, has also been affected by unfavorable weather and has been in short supply for three consecutive years. An official report released by Vietnam in January stated that Vietnam’s coffee exports in 2024 will be 1.35 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%.

This round of continuous rise in coffee bean prices is slightly different for each cup of coffee.

The price of blended coffee beans used in the most traditional American coffee has exceeded that of SOE coffee beans (i.e. boutique coffee from a single producing area)

Rita told Blue Whale News that I would give you an example. The better Gaoshang beans purchased in the past were about 70 yuan per kilogram, and the cheaper ones were about 50 – 60 yuan. But now it is close to 90 yuan per kilogram. Some of my friends in the industry have considered giving up matching and only selling SOE.& rdquo;

Boutique shops will lose money if they don’t adjust prices, and chain coffee shops may have stockpiled goods in advance.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, coffee farmers around the world have become the biggest beneficiaries of this price increase storm. ldquo; The rise in coffee bean prices has directly increased the income level of coffee farmers, especially farmers who grow Arabica and Robusta coffee beans. rdquo; Yang Huaiyu, an analyst in the large consumer industry, said that some suppliers can also gain higher profit margins due to rising prices, especially large traders with bargaining power in the international market.

Midstream bakers are greatly affected by raw material costs, and most bakers have a large proportion of lock-in customers. On the one hand, upstream bean merchants have to default and increase prices, and on the other hand, they have to fulfill their obligations to downstream brand customers, which has also caused heavy losses to many companies. Domestic medium-sized coffee roaster Tamper| Wang Zhening, the manager of Tambo Coffee, said in an interview with the media:“ A batch of beans whose original price was less than 2 million yuan had to be paid more than 400,000 yuan to get the goods.& rdquo;

This impact is also transmitted to the downstream of the industry, but different types of brands are affected to different degrees.

Japanese coffee brand Ajinomoto AGF directly announced a price adjustment and will increase the price of its products (172 kinds) in the Japanese market starting from March 1, 2025, with an increase of 15% to 30%. Coffee brand maker Nestlé announced in November that it would continue to raise product prices and reduce packaging to cope with rising prices of raw materials.

Boutique coffee shop owners like Rita are weighing the price increase and changing beans. Rita told Blue Whale News that the current situation will be a loss if the price is not adjusted. They may abandon the original beans with price increases and choose relatively cheaper ones. In the production areas, no matter how you choose, the overall increase is rising. At present, we first consider changing the raw bean formula, and the price of a single cup will not be adjusted for the time being. Relative profits will decrease, just wait for this wave to pass and see if prices fall back.& rdquo;

Large-scale coffee chain companies generally have foresight about the industry and hoard goods in advance, prices will remain relatively stable, and their ability to resist risks will be relatively strong. Blue Whale News reporter asked Cuddy, Luckin, and Starbucks about the impact of the rise in coffee beans, but had not received a valid reply as of press time. However, coffee brands such as Starbucks China, Cudi Coffee, Luckin Coffee, Tims Tianhao China also said in their previous response to the media that they had not been affected by the price increase of coffee beans.

Yang Huaiyu said that although major brands such as Lucky and Starbucks can relieve short-term pressure by locking in purchase orders in advance, they still need to adjust their strategies in the long run, including renegotiating supply chain contracts or finding alternative raw materials.

If the price of coffee beans continues to rise like gold, I am afraid that even if Lucky people hoard their goods in advance, they will not be able to resist reality. How long can I drink 9.9 yuan coffee?